Anti-Terrorism 101

Ron Suskind has a piece in the nest issue of Time, How to Stay One Step Ahead, in which he writes:

Here’s another lesson from London. Human intelligence routinely trumps fancy and often legally problematic surveillance techniques. The key to discovering the plot was apparently a citizen from Britain’s diverse Islamic community who, in the days after last summer’s bombings in London, overheard something troubling. He contacted authorities. An investigation took root. Imagine: a Muslim man sitting across from a British intelligence official at a cafe, off hours. They have little in common. Some would say they are natural opponents. But a thread of shared interest leads to the passing of information and, a year later, to saving grace.

The U.S. intelligence community is in a poor position to replicate that. Concerned citizens in the Muslim world who are close enough to radicals to see or hear something pertinent seem less inclined than ever to sit down with an American. “They see us right now as an angry, reckless giant supporting the bombing of kids in Lebanon,” says a top U.S. terrorism official. “If they were to see something troubling nowadays, they’d be more inclined than ever to simply look the other way. It’s their inaction-on a vast scale-that’ll kill us.”

It does no good to hoover up phone conversations: there is too much data. A single tip from a person can point to a “thread” that can be traced, and if “pulled gently” can unravel the entire plot.

Shock and Awe™ ^{The Shrubbery Inc.} didn’t work in Iraq or Lebanon, and can’t work in the GWOT™ ^{The Shrubbery Inc.}.