Comments on: As I Have Been Saying

By: Why Now? » Blog Archive » It Only Gets Worse

Why Now? » Blog Archive » It Only Gets Worse — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 00:42:37 +0000

[…] the 11th I wrote about the response of a senior Iranian security official to US threats, and today Juan Cole talks about the Iranian […]

By: Bryan

Bryan — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 11:41:06 +0000

I’m putting what hope I have in the larger role being played by the Navy, which should be tuned to the anti-ship capabilities of Iran, which are nasty. The military is going to have to explain reality to the civilians.

By: Fallenmonk

Fallenmonk — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 22:13:32 +0000

I haven’t had a chance to read Kevin’s post yet but I will later. However, I agree with Bryan that you cannot rule out anything with this administration. Their world picture is severely distorted and as we have seen over and over they do not seem to have the ability to see the logical results of their actions. Couple the insane reality with the fact they won’t listen to advice that doesn’t agree with their picture of what they want to believe they are just crazy enough to do it. Our only hope is that the military commanders will see the potential disaster for what it is and not go along. Thin gruel.

By: Bryan

Bryan — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 21:01:26 +0000

I personally believe the current administration is both crazy and ignorant enough to do almost anything. Because they are generally fearful people, they believe everyone else is just as fearful. They think they can bully the world and don’t realize that there are people just as stupid and ignorant, but who are not fearful, and who will not back down.

Don’t forget, Iran “played nice” after 9/11 and got nothing for their efforts, so they are not apt to offer to play nice again.

By: jams o donnell

jams o donnell — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 19:44:43 +0000

There is one question that occurs to me time and time again: Is the US government mad or stupid enoough to take on Iran? If so does it really want to shut off a large chunk of the world’s oil supply? Just looking at a map of the Persian Gulf and it looks clear that Iran could shut it off and keep it shit off with ease.

By: Bryan

Bryan — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 16:40:12 +0000

As Israel found out, Jack, even the unguided rockets that Iran manufactures can be a problem and their anti-ship missiles work against modern warships. It isn’t even a function of accuracy when they can “shotgun” a response and overcome the Patriot systems that are defending. There are coastal mountains that will be used for launching, and many will be in hardened sites.

I read your Saturday post, Kevin, a lot of work, and I agree, that in addition to wanting to get rid of Saddam, because his dad didn’t, the Shrubbery would like to effect regime change in Iran to out-Reagan Reagan. This is part of his “legacy dream” that the neocon use to push their delusions.

There are still three carrier groups, but they will all be out in the Arabian Sea if they go into attack mode because you can’t maneuver in the Persian Gulf. Iran has a coast line on the Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea and a few diesel subs to make things “interesting” for the carriers.

Iran is a place we just don’t want to go until we have weaned ourselves from oil. The Chinese would not react well to the results of an attack against Iran.

By: Kevin Hayden

Kevin Hayden — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 16:22:00 +0000

Having just reanalyzed oil, economic and military data for the region, esp for Iraq/Iran, (see post Saturday) I concluded that Iraq’s invasion was ALWAYS just a stepping stone to the overriding goal of taking out Iran’s govt. And that it HAD tobe an air war. And that Iran would HAVE to respond with a ground war targeting regional oil facillities and other countries, in multiple directions (Iraq first, but Afghanistan, Oman, UAE, etc.

Do we still have three carrier groups in the region? It seems much is in place, but I expected to see this happen closer to election 2008.

By: Jack K.

Jack K. — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 16:03:46 +0000

…dovetails nicely with the previous post, I’d say. Iran supposedly has a sufficiently plentiful supply of various sorts of anti-ship missiles and potential launch platforms to make any sort of military strike against them an interesting proposition…