Comments on: Time To Pay Attention

By: Bryan

Bryan — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 00:13:49 +0000

Whig, I’m not saying it wouldn’t be a good idea to get off the Cayman Islands because there’s now way of being sure how the steering will go this far out, but if the steering holds, Dean will pass south of the islands. Now, as currently configured Dean is a small, tight hurricane moving quickly, and the rapid intensification argues for it to remain small, but powerful, an oversized tornado.

If it slows its forward motion it will expand, but currently Jamaica may only get tropical storm force winds on its south side. I wouldn’t bet my life on it. The Caymans have no high ground, so I would leave.

By: whig

whig — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 22:05:18 +0000

From an editorial I found published today:

For example, do we know how much of Grand Cayman’s land mass will disappear with a six inch rise in sea level, with a one-foot rise, with a three foot-rise, and so on? Factor in the effect of spring tides on top of a higher sea level, or a major hurricane-generated tidal surge as experienced with Ivan and we could be looking at some very serious problems here. Anyone that lives on one of the many canals in Grand Cayman or on low-lying, filled land will realise better than most how vulnerable we are. Indeed, it therefore takes no great stretch of the imagination to visualise Cayman Brac as being the one remaining habitable place in this three-island country.

By: whig

whig — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 21:48:59 +0000

If you imagine this ever happened before, if our history began on an island and far enough from any other land mass that our island was to us the whole world (surrounded by the ocean of chaos), would there not have been a “worldwide” flood but for someone building a boat?

By: whig

whig — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 21:42:32 +0000

They are basically large reefs, with no freshwater. With sealevel rise expected as well they might not be much longer there anyhow.

By: whig

whig — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 21:37:41 +0000

Yes, but according to the projections it’s projected to be a Category 4 right on top of the Caymans, which is considerably worse than it looks for any other island.

By: Bryan

Bryan — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 21:32:53 +0000

I hate to say it, but the models are aiming for the mouth of the Rio Grande/Bravo again. So far it looks like it will track south of Erin, but it’s early yet. As much rain as you have had, it could get you from the back side as a tropical depression.

By: Steve Bates

Steve Bates — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 20:25:36 +0000

Holy (expletive), that thing looks mean. I don’t want to be where it goes, and I don’t want to evacuate either, unless it is completely unavoidable. I don’t care if I am prepared for a moderate hurricane; I don’t want that one here. That wish and $4 will get me a fancy coffee drink at Starbucks.

OT, quite a few Houston neighborhoods and major roads are still flooded even though the rain mostly stopped here a couple of hours ago. We’ve had the wettest August in recent history even before Erin, and even if Dean came here as a mere tropical storm, with the ground as wet as it is now, I can’t help thinking of T.S. Allison.

By: Bryan

Bryan — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 18:06:34 +0000

It looks nasty for any island. Right now it is compact and moving quickly, which is better that something like Katrina which was massive and slowed. I wouldn’t want to be on the Antilles for a Cat 1.

Cozumel is going to get blasted again.

This is looking like a rerun of hurricane Wilma in 2005.

By: whig

whig — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 17:11:48 +0000

That looks nasty for the Caymans.