Of course, if their equipment is working they can alert Iran, and Iran may launch before the aircraft enter their airspace. Lots of “true believers” and “fight-to-the-death” types in the Revolutionary Guard.
I noticed that Syria is backing Turkey on the PKK problem, which generates some good will for them in Ankara. The Syrians have a large Kurdish population and don’t need any more problems, like an independent Kurdistan on their border.
The whole area is a mess, and things “going boom” certainly don’t help. The eye doctor doesn’t have the lock on Syria that his dad did, and he could be replaced if he makes the wrong move.
Many more reasons to get the hell out of Iraq and let things calm down.
]]>Add in the fact that Syria really does NOT want to shoot down Israeli aircraft. Shooting down Israeli aircraft might mean that Israel attacks Syria, and unlike Lebanon, Syria doesn’t have a gopher-like Hizballah dug in and ready to fight like demons, instead they have a bunch of demoralized draftees armed with old Soviet-era small arms, a bunch of inoperative Soviet-era tanks (useful only as targets), and a capital city that’s an hour’s drive from the Israeli border over fairly flat terrain perfect for Israel’s blitzkrieg tactics. One reason why Israel won’t give up the Golan Heights is because this turns them into a flaming sword hanging over the head of Syria with no natural barriers between them and Damascus. Back when Syria had Soviet backing they might have felt brave enough to shoot at Israeli jets, but now that they’re stuck with nothing but Iranian backing, which is of much less value than having a superpower behind them, the last thing they want to do is provide Israel with an excuse to attack them.
So, anyhow, if this was a test of Syrian air defenses, it isn’t necessarily true that the Russian gear failed. It may be that the Russian gear worked just fine, just was in the wrong place to deal with this incursion or lacked anybody with the will to actually pull the trigger if it was in the right place.
]]>An attack on Iran pretty much guarantees chaos, because they will launch the rockets, no matter if the US or Israel flies the aircraft, and that is the end of oil production for a very long time.
It would be nice to think that adults would intervene, but I don’t think there are enough adults left in a position to do anything.
Musharraf is gone anyway because he has to act against the Taliban and al Qaeda or be wiped out by them, and the tribes will revolt if he does. He doesn’t have any good options left.
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