You’re right that they can wipe us out financially, if they choose to do it. We may well get wiped by a shift to petro-Euros from petro-Dollars before they even get into the game. The neonitwits are writing checks we can’t cover. Their “alligator mouths” don’t seem to understand that their “canary butts” will get stomped if they keep it up.
]]>But the question at the moment is whether the Chinese need us more than we need them. We’re playing a game of chicken here and I’m not sure the neo-cons are smart enough to win it.
]]>The heavy water reactors are obviously more “military-friendly” than the light water reactors, but Iranians have the money to buy the plutonium cores they would need directly from the Pakistanis, or North Koreans. If we keep screwing around, the North Koreans will be in a disparate enough situation to cut a deal, and G-d only knows what the Pakistanis will do.
Frankly, if they keep pushing, Khamenei’s fatwa is only barrier to a Iranian nuke. If someone starts talking about tactical nukes in a mosque, we are truly in deep yogurt.
I’m wondering about the possibility of the Chinese offering Iran nuclear cover. That would be a nasty surprise for the Busheviks. People are getting pissed off, major league, and this is not going end well. Another 13 months of this crap and things could go very wrong very quickly. The Hedgemony doesn’t know or care how other people will react to their tactics.
]]>The Soviets would help with the form factor and the sizing issues, even more than the Pakistanis.
Diplomacy was always the answer, but the Hedgemony keep threatening people which guarantees an arms race. Russia and China have both started the process of modernizing, which they had not bothered with for a very long time. Both of their militaries were on track to rust in place before the Shrubbery started saber rattling, and now we have Bears flying long range patrols again.
I have a feeling that all Iran has ever done that would be considered military is the fuel cycle. Frankly, they could get a good weapon reprocessing fuel rods that they bought some where else, so the fuel cycle doesn’t indicate much.
]]>Let’s face it, the United States built an atomic bomb with 1940’s technology and far less knowledge than we have now. It simply doesn’t take a hyper-advanced technology to build an atomic bomb (North Korea, duh!). The only reason every nation on the planet doesn’t have the things is because most nations up to the 1940’s level of technology to do it find it better to go along with the United States. For example, South Korea could have an atomic bomb within two years of starting their bomb program — they already have the heavy water reactors (CANDU) and probably have enough uranium on hand to swiftly irradiate a few bombs’ worth of plutonium in the things. But South Korea finds it more expedient to rely on the U.S. nuclear shield rather than undertake that politically risky endeavor.
In short, the solution to nuclear proliferation, considering that you can build a bomb with 1940’s technology, is political, not military. Folks who don’t think they need a bomb, don’t build one, because while it’s not brain surgery to build the things it is expensive and then you have to secure the things and there’s the political fallout and so forth. See: South Africa, which had the bomb, then destroyed it because in the post-apartheid era there was no need. But of course political action would make too much sense, so we gotta threaten Iran with military action, which of course would make them start a nuclear weapons program if they didn’t already have one. Well, if they had no other way to retaliate if the U.S. attacked them, that is. But given that we’ve handily stuck 150,000 targets right next door to them, why would they need nukes?
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