Sadrists didn’t contest the last election and Basra is being run by ISCI loyalists. The Sadrists intend to run this October, and the ISCI is attempting to push them out of the district.
No one can afford to do to Basra what was done to Fallujah because of the oil exports.
Al-Malaki was crazy to attack the Sadrists, because of what’s happening in the other Sadrist stronghold, Baghdad. It does him no good to gain a temporary win over the Madhi Army in Basra, if he loses the capital.
If al Sadr declares an end to the ceasefire, all hell breaks loose in Shi’ia areas. The ISCI waited out the Iran-Iraq War and Saddam’s rule in Iran, while al Sadr stayed in Iraq. A lot of people respect that. The current Iraqi government has ties to Iran, and a lot of Iraqis don’t like that.
This is politics Iraqi style, and the US is in the middle.
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