The US is out of the loop on this, and ties to the US are about all al-Malaki had going for him.

It also looks like al Sadr is doing at least some of his graduate work in Qom, and not just in Najaf, which makes sense as many of the best manuscripts were probably moved to Qom for safety when all hell broke loose in Iraq.

Half of the “radical statements” reported by the press are misinterpretations of idioms.

There might be a Palestinian who would be suited to the job as mediator.

Moqtada al Sadr is back in grad school working towards the credentials that will help him truly lead his family’s movement. At the moment I don’t think he can do much more than state the opinion of the majority. He wants, and has said this on many occasions, a unified Iraq, but I’m not sure that the movement is really behind him on that. He wants all foreigners out of Iraq.

The Da’wa and ISCI don’t seem to have goals beyond extracting retribution and maintaining power. They want the US to remain, while most Iraqis want the US out, and they have close ties with Iran, while most Iraqis are not fond of Iran.

The Sunnis want to be left alone and a share of oil profits.

The Kurds want an independent Kurdish state.

I don’t see how the US can play any constructive role in this problem. This is going to require an impartial third party to mediate, and I don’t know who that would be – possibly the Arab League, but the Kurds will probably object. The UN has been compromised by association with the US, and all of the neighbors have their own agendas.

It would be nice if the Dalai Lama spoke Arabic.

If the US stays, that is the ISCI position. If it leaves, that’s the Sadrist position. No matter who sits in Washington or what they do, it will be entered into the win-loss columns in Iraq.

As it stands now, the Iraqi Army would seem to be on track for an embarrassing defeat. That will strengthen the hand of the more aggressive faction of the Mahdi Army, and they will ignore the cease fire. The current fighting can be labeled “defensive”, but if they win on defense they are likely to try offense.

  – SB the YDD

Bryan, is there a way this situation could be worse? and would it improve with a change in U.S. administration?

It takes years for people to accept a police department, and decades to trust one.