I don’t doubt that the unrest over the non-election will also have an impact, as people is sensitive positions will be increasingly investigated for having “wrong views” of the government.

The Russians certainly have the access and skills required to screw things up, and there is a definite financial interest in processing the fuel, as well as a political interest in maintaining control over energy in as wide an area as possible.

Iran has a good industrial base, but it isn’t anywhere good enough to make any massive leaps in technology. They have started with a 50-year-old design and have to figure out the refinements on their own. This is going to be a long process with some, perhaps even great, progress occasionally, but it will still take time if they really want to make a weapon. The key for the West is not to do anything that will make them want a weapon. Constant threats are not helpful.

My understanding is that Iran’s native uranium has some rather interesting contaminants that make it hard to centrifuge, and that might have something to do with it too. In any event, Iran doesn’t have enough centrifuges to enrich uranium far enough to make a bomb in any reasonable amount of time, it’d take them literally years to make enough for one bomb with what they’ve got going right now. North Korea perhaps could hide something like that for years — North Korea is basically a hermit kingdom, nobody gets in, nobody gets out (well, some people manage to get out, but not many). But Iran is a fairly open nation with a huge amount of cross-border trade and few population controls within its borders (i.e., once you’re in Iran you can pretty much move around freely, there aren’t checkpoints all over the place that will let you by only if you have a proper permit allowing you to do so), the notion that Iran could keep a huge complex secret for years doesn’t pass the laugh and giggle test.