Hipparchia, I don’t think I’ve seen any video of the BOP since we started getting live shots, I’ve only seen shots of the bends where the riser is broken.
Very early there were stills or short videos of the BOP while the ROVs were trying to get the BOP to function, but absolutely nothing in recent days.
]]>i did know this, ackshully. and this part too:
When the rig disconnected because it, well, blew up (heh), the riser collapsed over to the side,
but didn’t know what the cameras were focused on [i misread something somewhere too, which led me astray].
]]>i didn’t watch most of it, but didn’t we see new leaks forming in the bop casing during the attempted top kill? in which case, the answer is most likely, no it won’t hold.
]]>Now, the question is, could a top kill be done from the surface once they have the LMRP cap on? Well, it’s a possibility if they put the right structure in place, but what are the chances that BP is going to put the right structure in place (basically a “cross” to allow temporarily diverting the oil elsewhere while the pipe strand is filled with mud)? Besides, we’re then left with the same problem that prevents just closing in the well in the first place — the casing and lower BOP have been eroded by a month of flowing grit, and there’s no telling whether they’d hold. I do think that if a hurricane starts threatening they should try it anyhow… there’s no more pressure involved than just closing in the well, after all, and if they manage to push the oil 5,000 feet below the surface into the rock layer and then get a plug of concrete down there, the strength of the casing is no longer an issue and waiting for leaks to spring no longer on the agenda. But that’s one of the things they should be planning for, but IMHO probably shouldn’t do at this point — too risky.
– Badtux the Oil Penguin
.-= last blog ..Crashing halt =-.
Having that riser bent might have reduced some of the flow, but it was also a weak spot and the arrangement had to be stressing the BOP and vertical portion of the riser.
The sudden release of a lot of oil when the riser was cut and the new pipe added would have been nothing compared to the weeks of leaking waiting for the containment vessels that didn’t work, and it would have been done before the start of the hurricane season.
Shut off the well should have been the first consideration, and it obviously wasn’t. Now they are in a position that it may be impossible to stop the flow until the relief well is completed, and there are no guarantees that the hurricane season is going to cooperate.
]]>– Badtux the Oil Penguin
.-= last blog ..Crashing halt =-.
1) The ‘top kill’ procedure wasn’t going to work unless the ‘junk shot’ could clog up the bend in the fallen-over riser and allowed enough pressure to build in order to push the mud down into the hole. The ‘junk shot’ didn’t.
2) What this implies is that the bend in the fallen-over riser isn’t stopping the flow of oil in any significant way, and thus there’s no need to keep the fallen-over riser on top of the well. They didn’t know this until they tried the junk shot and the junk shot failed, before that they thought the bent pipe was restricting the flow of oil somewhat and thus was worth keeping on top of the well. But now it’s clear that’s not true, so they might as well cut the riser off.
3) The main problem with closing in the well at this point is that the flowing oil is full of sand that has been steadily sandblasting the casing and the interior of the blowout preventer and there’s no guarantee that if they close in the well, the casing or blowout preventer will hold. Remember, there was 14,000 PSI of oil that blew out the original riser. The casing and blowout preventer as spec’ed could handle that, but both have been sandblasted to a fare-thee-well by a month’s worth of oil-borne sand.
4) The LMRP cap and riser package is probably the best bet right now to at least keep the oil out of the water. There is the possibility of putting a valve in it to try to close in the well again if a hurricane comes along and filling tankers at the surface no longer becomes possible, but they really, *really* don’t want to close that valve, because if the casing blows out in the subsurface muck below the blowout preventer (the most likely scenario given how eroded it undoubtedly has become), then there’s nothing left that can be done until the relief wells hit the casing down in the rock, game over.
So basically, by fiddling around for a month, they allowed the well to get so eroded that it *can’t* be closed in. Was that by plan, by stupidity, or what? I have no idea, but the LMRP cap will hopefully keep the oil out of the water until the relief wells come in. Unless a hurricane comes through. In which case the game plan is to shut the valve on the LMRP cap, cut off the riser a couple hundred feet below the surface and attach it to a float and let it float around down there, and get the tankers somewhere safe until it blows through — and just pray that the casing doesn’t burst, because that’s all that’s left at that point.
– Badtux the Oil Penguin
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