I don’t think it makes any difference if the end product is secular or religious, the US supported Mubarak for 30 years, and Mubarak is the problem. A problem for the Islamist is the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood waited so long to join the protests, apparently stung by Elbaradei’s return. They have been on a very short leash under Mubarak, and that may hurt their credibility.
The worse case is if Israel does something stupid, then the defecation will definitely impact the ventilation.
There is nothing the US can do that will make things better, and the best option at this point is to be seen as doing nothing. Bland statements about “this is an Egyptian problem, that Egyptians will solve in their own way” is a better stance than seeming to support anything or anyone. Alas, the Republicans will be spouting off, probably on all of the Sunday talk shows, about supporting Mubarak and his importance to Israel.
I think that Gamal should take the family on “vacation” and reserve a room for his “Dad”, because people have overcome the “fear barrier” and they aren’t likely to come down from the “adrenalin rush” quickly. Once you make the decision that chancing death is a better option than the status quo, you aren’t going to be bought off cheaply.
]]>Sunni Islam is not organized like Shia Islam (they’re like the Baptists to the Shia’s Catholics, organization-wise, i.e., every mosque is at least nominally independent and answers to no central authority other than Allah Himself), so we aren’t going to see direct rule by mullahs. But the Islamists are currently the only force in the Middle East that has any credibility, everybody else is viewed either as hopeless idealists or as pawns of the West. My guess is that we’re going to end up with a hostile regime in Egypt and that Preznit Hopey Changey is gonna deal with it about as well as he has dealt with every other crisis during his Presidency — i.e., he’s going to make a great speech, and that’s pretty much it. He makes Jimmy Carter look practically competent, yo….
— Badtux the WASF Penguin
]]>As the Paris Commune found out, getting rid of a government is easy, but then you have to govern.
]]>