Comments on: End Game

By: Bryan

Bryan — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 06:27:40 +0000

In reply to Badtux.

The Egyptian military as already decided that it wants clean hands. Suleiman will be lurking in the background. but he can’t take power without the support of the military, and Suleiman has been Mubarak’s man for too long.

He may come back later, but the military is concerned about its power, not the power of any individual in the military. They have to worry about a possible push from junior officers, as well as the people in street. The leaders of military organizations are conservative. When they have to accept change, they don’t want it in large doses. They lead a conscript force and that makes a big difference.

There is a reason Mubarak has always relied on his Interior Ministry and the police, because the military maintained its separation from the political.

There are no certainties in this process.

By: Badtux

Badtux — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 05:20:26 +0000

All I have to say is that I think you’re an optimist here. Egypt isn’t Tunisia, and while I’m sure Suleiman is going for plausible deniability all the way, my gut feel is that some nasty character is going to end up coming out on top here. For one thing, the U.S. doesn’t give billions of dollars in financial aid to nice guys. Doesn’t work that way. Quick — name one regime that gets billions of dollars of financial aid from the U.S. that is ruled by nice guys?

– Badtux the Pessimistic Penguin

By: Bryan

Bryan — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 03:41:47 +0000

Suleiman is a General in the Egyptian Army, the new prime minister, Ahmad Shafiq, is a General in the Egyptian Air Force, they are serving the interests of the military at this point, and it is in the interest of the Egyptian military to avoid political involvement in case anything unpleasant occurs. I’m sure that, if asked, General Suleiman would view it as his duty to assist the new head of state, but not out front where the blame will be found.

ElBaradei has no real political base in Egypt. He has spent most of his life outside of the country, so he hasn’t built a following. He also hasn’t made any enemies, which makes him useful. He is a perfect choice for waving to the multitudes and cutting ribbons, and all of the other important things that the Queen does.

He has the skill set to be a good Foreign Minister or Judge, but he just doesn’t have the political strength to be anything but a figure head.

There are a number of people with prison time on their CVs and political operations that are more likely to rise to power, and aren’t tainted by association with Mubarak and the NDP [the New Democratic Party of Egypt, not associated with the Canadian version].

I think we can prepare for new fires at NDP offices throughout Egypt as people prepare to deny that they were ever members. Kind of like all those Nazi Party lapel pins that clogged sewers in Germany in 1945.

The Muslim Brotherhood should be able to muster a reasonable showing, but I don’t think the Egyptians are ready for a theocracy. Like everywhere else, it’s jobs that are uppermost on people’s minds.

By: Badtux

Badtux — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 01:32:43 +0000

There’s speculation that Suleiman is working with the military to ease Mubarak out with an eye to taking Mubarak’s place himself. One thing to remember is that Suleiman is a genuine evil SOB. He ran (runs?) Egypt’s torture chambers. So that’s a *fourth* power nexus in all of this. But it all depends on whether he can talk down the revolution by throwing Mubarak to them and promising reforms ASAP. Once he has the revolution talked down, he can then revert to his old ways of doing things, just like when his boss was Mubarak.

As for Mohamed ElBaradei, remember some guy named Abulhassan Banisadr? Named to a top government position in order to give his country’s new revolutionary government international credibility while the Islamist hardliners consolidated power behind the scenes? ElBaradei is a disposable figurehead for whoever ends up consolidating power after Mubarak flees. Let us hope for his sake that he is aware of this, rather than trying to do a Banisadr and end up having to flee for his life himself (or worse).