“Senior Government Official” is media-speak for a self-important weasel attempting to convince a reporter that he’s a source for the real “inside information”. The only people other than the SEAL team who actually know what the orders were, are the National Security Council. There is a multi-stage process to release information on an operation like this because it involves things that really are classified. The media are releasing rumor and gossip to fill space.

What I really would like to see is a floor plan. That had to be a major PITA because they had to force entry without knowing anything about the interior. There were effective shields in place that would have defeated the normal methods of determining what it was really like inside – where the doors were, where the stairs were, a lot of other information.

Without that it is hard to know what they had to do inside. The worse is when you are channeled down a hall that is not significantly wider than the door at the end, and you suspect that door is hollow-core and won’t even slow firing from the other side.

All we have are guesses.

Oh, I think he would have been killed, even if it was a police raid to arrest him, because, having already encountered opposition, you have to assume that there will be opposition from everyone. What I mean is that, you start prepared to be opposed, but if there had been no opposition, blood pressure and adrenalin levels would be lowered. When the first shot is fired, everything spikes, and you don’t take any chances.

Geronimo and Jackpot aren’t codes, they are standard military jargon. US military Operations always have two words and are pulled from a list.

Bryan, SOP teams train constantly for hot threat eval on missions. The fact that the SEAL deliberately shot the woman (who was advancing on him) in the calf, means he knew the situation, otherwise she would have been hit in CBM or head like Bin Laden. He would have had to lower his weapon to shoot her in the calf, then raise it to shoot Bin Laden. In a hot zone where you don’t yet know the threat level, you are trained never to lower your weapon, you never approach a room with less than two, one drop’s to a knee, or to the ground and roll’s in (optional) and fire prone, while the second covers the room from the door. If you have three, two enter left & right, one covers from the door.

BTW, most press are calling the op “Operation Geronimo” which is not correct. The code name was “Operation Neptune’s Spear”. Geronimo was the code that Bin Laden was dead (or captured). “Jackpot” was the code that a SEAL had eye’s on Bin Laden.

Not enough information to know if this was a directed assassination, but having hit some doors in the middle of the night, if you have already been shot at, and you hit a door and get rushed, you don’t check for weapons or hold conversations, you shoot.

I’m assuming low-light conditions and laser-sighted weapons. There were probably two shooters, one cbm, and one head. The head shot was probably from the second SEAL through the door, shooting over the first SEAL, who would have made the cbm shot, after pushing away the woman.

Working from 10-year-old photos, I seriously doubt that they were sure the guy on the third floor was bin Laden. Hell, during the middle of a fire fight anyone who isn’t obviously a child is apt to get shot. If the guy on the third floor had raised his hands and spread his fingers, they would have probably just bundled him up, but given the torture regime instituted by the Shrubbery, who would do that?

I’m with Badtux, if you publicly confess to killing thousands of people, you need to be removed from the world.

– Badtux the Ruthless Penguin

So, this is how I *think* it went down:

The assult group consisted of two parts:
1. A Ranger platoon in two Chinook’s (either MH-47G, or E’s) flown by flown by Nightstalkers from the 160th SOAR (a very skilled bunch). The platoon consisted of 4 squads of probably 9-man teams (this is their normal platoon compliment of 42 troops plus NCO’s and officer’s). It would have to have been Chinook’s because they can carry from 33 to 55 troops, depending on other paylod (weapons, equipment, fuel etc), and a Blackhawk can only carry 12 to 14. Ranger’s typically are used to support SEAL’s who normally lead the assault. From reports so far, it would seem that the Ranger’s were used to provide a *fight-out* option if things went seriously pear shaped (greater number or heavily armed target’s for eg., or a quicker then expected response from Pakistani forces). They would also have provided cover and suppression fire during the SEAL assault.

2. Two 6-man SEAL teams in 2 Blackhawks (UH-60’s were reported, but I find this unlikely. They would more likely have been MH-60K or L’s which have night-vision & TFR (terrain following radar, for those not in the know) capabilities and are the preferred models of the Nightstalkers, who piloted the 4 chopper’s). It was reported that a blackhawk suffered a mechanical malfunction, but reading the available reports and comments from Military and other sources, it seems more likely it took a hit from small-arm’s fire or an RPG (both of which were reported to be used by Bin Laden’s force on the third-story roof of the main building when the Assault group reached the compound.) In any case, the blackhawk lost lift and hit the ground hard, and probably damaged the tail rotor in the process (normally the case in this situation), making it impossible to fly again, so it was destroyed after the assault. It wouldn’t have really bothered the US forces, as both Chinooks were flying *light* and had ample room for the SEAL team and crew from the downed blackhawk. It seems the *official* line about the crash is currently “One helicopter lost lift because the compound’s high walls upset its supporting airflow, forcing it to make a hard landing.” I find it extremely difficult to believe a crew of the caliber of the Nightstalkers would have made such a basic and stupid error, but I guess it is possible. *shrug*

I’ll pass over the actual assault, and look at the attack on Bin Laden himself.

There are many conflicting reports, but sifting through many (and especially those usually more accurate than others), this seems likely at this stage:

1. Bin Laden was in his bedroom with one of his wives, and was apparently unarmed.
2. Bin laden took two rounds (either 2 to the head, or 1 to the chest and 1 to the head).

It was reported by White House press secretary Jay Carney that the wife (unarmed) rushed the SEAL’s and was shot in the calf for her trouble (I probably would have done the same if I didn’t know if Bin Laden was armed or not, and there may have been others hiding in the room). SOP forces are well trained to disable rather than kill, and are accurate shooters, and a calf shot is the most common to disable). Carney also said that Bin Laden *resisted* but offered no details, then stated: “Bin Laden was then shot and killed,” Carney said. “He was not armed.”

The plan would probably have been something like:
The chinooks would have been somewhere near the perimeter of the compound and the Rangers would have fast-roped down, secured the perimeter, and began suppression fire. The two SEAL teams would have also used a fast-rope descent from the blackhawks into the compound closer too the target. The date and time of the assault would have been chosen because it was the darkest night available (bright moonlight can seriously ruin a mission like this).

As far as I can see from available info, Bin Laden was assassinated. There was never any plan to capture him alive. And now that he’s been tossed off a warship in the big ol’ ocean (sorry, *buried at sea*), we’ll probably never know… Well apart from the pic’s from the SEAL’s helmet-cam’s. Maybe someone will leak them one day, assuming they aren’t conveniently *lost*. 😉

Sorry, this is pretty rushed, but hope it makes some sense. *shrug* I have a lot on these days. I don’t know for sure how accurate any of this is, but I have experience and expertise as my guide. We’ll see how this all plays out I guess. *shrug*

I think they are just hoping to spend time with a pension to pay for it.

I believe there’s a “fixer-upper” available in the near future near the military academy. 😈

The last thing the Pakistani government wanted to “know” was that ISI and the military have had bin Laden living in a “guest cottage” at the military academy for years.

Actually, the situation gives the civilians an edge to use against the military in their on-going struggle. As long as they don’t overreach, they have an opportunity to do some “house cleaning” among the senior officers. The civilian government has “plausible deniability”, which is the gold standard of political excuses.

The burning question for Congress will be: did US taxpayer money pay for bin Laden’s compound? and hilarity ensued…

Considering that the Pakistani Taliban are predominantly Pashtuns and there was supposed to be a “war against terrorism”, next door to the military academy, it would certainly be reasonable that someone official checked on the residents of that compound.

This is up in the Northwest tribal area. The more civilized part to be sure, but people certainly noticed that something was going on, and had to have been led to believe that everything had been checked out by the authorities.

I don’t doubt that there will be a lot of retirements when the Pakistani military start thinking about what was on the hard drives of the computers the SEALs took.