Since the Shah started the nuclear program, and the Shah negotiated the transit rights, the US needs to try the Shah – it’s as logical as anything else involving Iran and the Israelis.
]]>But basically, the reason the Strait is open today is because if it was closed, Iran couldn’t ship their oil. So you’re right, if Iran can’t ship their oil anyhow, what motivation does Iran have to keep the Strait open? None. Even senile old Ronnie Raygun realized that much, which is why he secretly supported *both* sides in the Iran-Iraq War…
]]>The US and Israel just don’t seem to understand that Iran doesn’t scare worth a damn. They don’t back down when threatened; they get mad.
You can’t claim that Israel has a right to close the coast of Gaza, but Iran can’t close its coastal waters.
If the US wants to take action against Iran, they need some hard proof that Iran is doing something wrong, not a lot of rumor and opinion.
]]>Iran doesn’t even have to fire a single one of their aging Silkworm missiles to close the Straits. All they have to do is declare the portions of the Straits that pass through Iranian territory closed due to “military exercises” (note that about half the shipping channel is within Iran’s national borders, and because the channel sort of zig-zags, Iran closing their portion closes the whole thing) and threaten to torpedo any ship that attempts going through the Straits during their “exercise”, and every single merchant ship inbound to the Straits will turn around and head back for home. You simply don’t risk a $120M tanker that takes 2 years to build in a war zone. It isn’t done. No insurer on the planet would cover you if you did that.
Note that under international law there are no international waters in the Strait of Hormuz. You’re either in Oman or you’re in Iran. Period. And while there are generally recognized transit rights through the Strait, that happens mostly because it’s in Iran’s best interests for it to happen — after all, their oil has to go thru the Strait too (since their biggest oil fields are up by Iraq at the head of the Persian Gulf). Closing the Strait would thus devastate Iran’s economy, since even tankers bound for Iran’s ports would stay away. So there’s an element of bluffing here by Iran. But this is a bluff that shouldn’t be called, because the consequences if it *isn’t* a bluff is just a loss of a few poker chips — it’s a major disruption to the world economy.
– Badtux the Oil Penguin
]]>Dump oil and other fossil fuels – that is the best solution.
]]>I look at it as a military target, and it has more in common with Afghanistan that Iraq, i.e. a lot of mountains and caves to stash things and then bring them out. Unlike the Iraqis, the Iranians will go suicidal on you. They don’t have an interest in a new Persian empire, but they are more than willing to die defending their country.
Hey, it’s not their fault that the Shrubbery decided to eliminate the two biggest problems they had – Saddam and the Taliban, nor that the Hedgemony turned their back on Iranian offers of assistance in the Global War on Terror™. Their influence has risen because the US screwed up, not because of anything they did.
Iran is a signatory of and in compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which is more than Israel, Pakistan, or India can claim. They have uranium in their country, and the right to produce fuel for their power reactors. They have nuclear inspection teams in the country.
The absurd thing is that they haven’t been very successful in their efforts to produce the low levels of fuel for their reactors, suffering multiple problems with their enrichment facilities, so all of these people clamoring about them having a nuclear weapon ‘real soon’ is garbage.
The reality is that it is better for their economy if they export oil, rather than use it for domestic purposes, and they have a massive air quality problem from burning fossil fuels. Nuclear energy is a realistic solution to many of their problems, which is why they have been working on it since the Atoms for Peace program was initiated under Eisenhower. Most of the program was put in place by the Shah, and has been continued since the revolution, because the problems nuclear power is meant to address are getting worse, not better.
The best way of combating the power of Iran and Saudi Arabia is by switching to renewal fuels, and investing in alternative energy sources, so threats about whether a particular waterway is open don’t threaten the global economy.
]]>The neocons have poisoned the Republican debates with their insistence that we must save Israel (or where would the second coming and the Rapture take place?). Israel and the oil. But we were badly beaten in Iraq, caused a horrible mess of the country’s infrastructure and created one gazillion more Osama Bin Ladens while we were at it. We are doing the same thing in Afghanistan and Pakistan (and Yemen and Libya and…). Iran is the winner in this disaster.
Iran also is more educated, better informed, and armed. And BIGGER than Iraq. So who the hell thinks we can strut and threaten and Iran won’t take notice? How dumb do they think we are? … wait… don’t reply to that. I already know the answer.
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