I’m watching it. It is dependent on how long the wind shear hangs on, whether the dry air in the northern Gulf is drawn in, and whether the passing low pressure trough pulls it East.

The Gulf is warm enough for some development into a tropical system, but how strong and where it will go is up for grabs. For a while it looked like the western tip would break off and head your way, but that died down.

What no one needs is for the sucker to stall in the Gulf and spin up.

You are right about assumptions: the old forecasting approaches are showing the wear and tear of the new weather patterns. But it’s not due to global climate change, because… oh, look, Al Gore looks old these days!