So far we haven’t had a major hurricane, but we have had some zombies, which are really annoying. The Main Development Region in the Atlantic doesn’t seem to be working that way and droughts are having a major impact, filling the atmosphere with dry air.

The reality is that things aren’t working the way they always have, and forecasters are having to adjust to the new reality.

ivan hit here mid-sept 2004 – so by this measure isaac is a little early! 🙂

katrina hit mid-sept 2005. kate was the nov hurricane that added another month to hurricane season in 1985. frederic hit here mid-sept 1979. in 1995 erin hit here early aug and opal hit here 2 months later in early oct. in 2005, wilma hit late oct.

going back in time… camille hit mid-late aug 1969. celia hit texas early aug 1970. which does sort of seem to suggest we’re getting more hurricanes these days, but i’m too lazy to do any more research.

so some years, by this time, we’ve had a lot of named storms, other years not so many.

There aren’t more, Steve, they are just coming in clusters rather than spacing out. There is already a third wannabe just off the coast of Africa. The heat is developing the waves, but the dry air is keeping them from getting strong. Isaac sucked in a lot of dry air, and may make a jog by forming around a different center of circulation. It’s a weird storm internally. Reading the comments over at Dr Masters’s blog you get all kinds of extra information and there is no consensus on this one.

As each storm passes they stir the ocean and cool the surface, so there is less energy available for those that follow. This is no 2004 or 2005, but the people in the Leeward Islands have to be getting pretty sick of this mess.

The track is dependent on it getting sucked up by a trough, and then pushed by a ridge that is supposed to build – in other words, guesses. Jeff Masters said he was waiting until tomorrow to make his guess to see if the trough and ridge are real.

Haiti is going it get hit, but it always does, and they really need to concentrate on planting trees and ground cover for their mountains to control the flooding.

Are there really more storms than usual this year, or is it my failing memory?

in the past few years i’ve become enamored of the discussion more than the advisories. that newly discovered shift to the west sure sounds like the rnc hot air may be a stronger force than even mother nature, but we’ll see….

Let’s see, Kryten – $154 million in income, less $200 million for security theater and violating people’s civil right [not including any follow-up lawsuits] – oh, yeah, lots of money to be made by somebody, just not Tampa taxpayers.

Locals never make money of these big events.