Comments on: Around The ‘Net

By: Bryan

Bryan — Sat, 22 Oct 2016 01:20:54 +0000

Casting about there seems to be some question about pilot qualifications on MiG-29K and you don’t want to attempt carrier flight ops on an ice covered deck in the Barents Sea. If they need flight time, they need warm water. OTOH, this could be a shake-down cruise to see what’s broken after the re-fit.

Oil has been in the dumps and warm winters don’t help the sale of natural gas, so I wouldn’t bet on how much actually got done, because it would be limited by what they could afford to pay for.

By: Kryten42

Kryten42 — Fri, 21 Oct 2016 06:09:38 +0000

LOL No, I certainly wouldn’t either! Especially if my experience in Texas in the 80’s is anything to go by! 😉 😀 But I didn’t mean a civil war (Though, it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. Most of those morons would shoot each other). I’m talking about an escalation in the ME around Syria. Putin is certainly pushing the USA & Clinton is the type to do something about it. Honestly, my friends in Canberra are concerned (in fact more concerned if Clinton wins than Drumph. He’d only be a local problem) based on traffic the past year. And they are not easily concerned. *shrug* But i’m pretty much out of it, and don’t really care any more. I’m just passing on what I hear. So, whatever. 🙂

RE: Kuznetsov. That is a distinct possibility.

Though the reports indicate that most of the money is going North to SevMash. But as well as refitting the Kirov’s, they are also building two new Sub classes, the Borey 955/955A NBM Sub w/ the new Bulava SLBM (original plan was to carry 12, but due to significant weight reduction, the Borey was modded to carry 16). 3x 955 launched, 2x 955A funded & in construction, 3x 955A funded to be laid down.

The 885/885M Yasen (Severodvinsk) class Multipurpose Fast Attack Sub (1x 885 launched & in service, 1x 885M launched & starting sea trials, 4x 885M laid down & under construction, 2x 885M ordered to be laid down 2017). The ONI/DIO reports that this is the stealthiest Russian/Chinese sub to date.

Given that the reported cost per 885/885M is about 50bln rubles (US$1.6 bln) & that 6 have apparently been funded, with the last partially funded, Putin is spending some serious money! Curiously, the 955/955A fitted out is half the price @ about 25 bln rubles.

It seems from reports that R. Adm. Dave Johnson (NAVSEA) is very impressed with both, though especially the 885/885M, and has reported to Congress that it will be a very tough opponent.

It does seem that Putin is banking on Sub’s primarily, which makes sense. There was a (suposedly) official report last year from Vladimir Dorofeyev, CEO of Russia’s Malakhit Marine Engineering Design Bureau, who stated: “The work on the fifth generation of submarines is already underway. The project will be implemented after the Yasen nuclear submarine construction project is completed.” This was subsequently confirmed by Admiral Viktor Chirkov who stated “In order to avoid pauses and standstill, we have started design work on developing submarines of the next, i.e. fifth generation.”

Given that most of the West laughed when Russia announced the 885 & 995 projects, I wouldn’t this time. 🙂

Also, there has been traffic that Russia has at least begun work on a new stealth Strategic Bomber (Tupolev PAK-DA), possibly with India (unconfirmed). The only thing my friends know is that Tupolev has received some serious funding recently.

And the Carrier Admiral Kuznetsov has completed the 2nd phase of it’s major refit and was made ready to take a flight of MIG 29KR’s. Though it’s been reported (last year) that they may not have enough Carrier qualified pilot’s for the Mig’s. This is at odds given that the plan for splitting the refit into two phases was to give pilots time to train on the MIG 29’s on the Carrier after phase one was complete:

According to my friends (last year): “The aircraft carrier has now arrived at the 35th shipyard to undergo the second phase of upgrades and the recovery of its technical readiness. Work should be completed before the end of September 2016, after which the ship will be seaworthy. The two-phase approach was devised to allow pilots work out takeoff and landing aboard the MiG-29KR/KUB fighters, designated to become the carrier air wing over the summer.

Key components of the refit supposedly include:

* Replacement of the defective steam turbines and turbo-pressurized boilers. Sources have reported that either gas turbine or nuclear propulsion are being considered. However, he expense, upkeep, and reliability issues that a nuclear refit would at present make it a very high-risk choice. In effect, the decision would turn the Kuznetsov into a technology demonstrator for Russia’s next aircraft carrier class, and raise the odds that the ship would never become a reliable fleet asset.

*Removal of the ship’s 3M45 P-700 Granit external link (SS-N-19 Shipwreck) supersonic, long-range anti-ship cruise-missiles

* Enlargement of the aircraft hangar, and a switch to new aircraft. The Russian Navy’s SU-33s could be replaced by smaller navalized MiG-29Ks. They would still be accompanied by Ka-27 anti-submarine helicopters, and radar-carrying Ka-31 AEW helicopters. The current SU-25 close support fighters have no naval counterpart or exact replacement; at present, their long-term fate remains a question mark.

* Upgraded air defenses. The current 3K95 Kinzhal external link (SA-N-9 Gauntlet) vertically-launched medium-range missiles and Kashtan external link (SA-N-11 Grisom) short range gun/missile systems would be replaced with a modern medium-range system, and a navalized 9M111 Pantsir-S1 external link (SA-22 Greyhound) gun-missile combination for short-range defense.

* New advanced communications and combat systems.”

So… basically, I don’t know what the game plan is for the Kirov’s, anyone who does is keeping it to themselves. 🙂 Though, if they are operational to spec, combined with the 885, 995’s & Kuznetsov, they would make a formidable force.

Russia has also apparently finished design of future Carrier (reportedly 2 are slated to be laid down 2018/19). Some leaked info indicates she will be Nuclear powered and carry at least 80 T-50 (PAK PHA) & Mig 29KR/KUB as well as a compliment of assorted helicopters & drones.

So far, Putin has accomplished (at least) some of the Military plans announced (or leaked).

By: Bryan

Bryan — Thu, 20 Oct 2016 20:01:38 +0000

I wouldn’t bank on a shooting war. I wouldn’t let any of the loudmouths talking big about revolution guard my back in a fire fight. They might show up for laser tag or paintball games, but they will paint their butts brown and play like a rock if real bullets start flying. Most of those guys would want a Purple Heart for a paper cut.

I wonder if they are moving the Admiral Kuznetsov to work on it at their Black Sea facilities.

By: Kryten42

Kryten42 — Thu, 20 Oct 2016 05:09:20 +0000

Well, if Clinton wins next Month, you can probably bank of a shooting war. Assuming of course Republicans don’t control Congress & the Senate. then of course, nothing much will happen. Might be a good thing. *shrug*

As for the Russian fleet, it’s for show & to annoy the west into doing something foolish. Something the West has proven it needs little incentive to do so. Putin isn’t a complete fool. So, it will be interesting to see what his end-game is. 🙂

By: Bryan

Bryan — Wed, 19 Oct 2016 23:41:11 +0000

The Norwegians reported that the Russians are moving the heart of their Northern Fleet down to the Med. BBC : Russia's naval task force: Power play or just theatre? They certainly would have included escort subs which would open the Russian Arctic Coast to an attack if anyone cared, but it really violates Soviet strategic naval thinking.

By: Badtux

Badtux — Wed, 19 Oct 2016 05:14:48 +0000

I would be very surprised if they could ever get the Kirov err Admiral Ushakov ever functional again. Its aft end got pretty damn well melted to slag when one of its reactors melted down (or came damn close to it, anyhow). The whole ship pretty much glows in the dark, but the aft end especially, they’d need to cut it off and weld a new one on, yeah right, the Russians don’t have anything near that expertise anymore. My understanding is that the aft end of the thing has been open to broad daylight for close to a decade now because they had to cut through all the decks to get sufficient firefighting assets down there to quench the reactor, meaning not only exterior rust, but interior rust and corrosion are going to be a big problem. That ship is scrap, plain and simple — the Russians just don’t have the capability anymore to handle a job that big.

The ‘Pyotr Veliky’ got a modest refit, but is still fitted with its old Soviet-era warfighting gear. The ‘Admiral Nakhimov’ is getting all the latest and greatest warfighting gear, but its recommissioning has been delayed time after time because the Russians keep running out of money and the contractors quit work until they get paid, not to mention the experimental nature of some of the advanced gear being fitted, which is all hand-built one-offs for the most part, and getting that to all work and furthermore work together with the other shipboard systems has been non-trivial. Thus they’ve had to back off on some of the planned upgrades because they simply can’t make it work or can’t afford it.

As for the ‘Admiral Lazarev’, the Russians have said that the next thing they want to do after the Admiral Nakhimov is put into service is to bring the ‘Pyotr Veliky’ back into drydock and upgrade its warfighting gear. Apparently they aren’t as confident as Kryten that its Soviet-era warfighting gear would be effective against current U.S. carrier battle groups. The ‘Admiral Lazarev’ is in Siberia and the notion that there’s work going on to refit it is ludicrous, the only shipyard left in Russia with the capacity to work on nukes is Sevmash on the other side of the world. I just took a satellite tour of the Russian Pacific Fleet facilities in Siberia, they do have a single floating dock there that *might* be able to accept the “Admiral Lazarev” (and I found a ship that could be the “Admiral Lazarev”), but the facilities around it are so sparse and primitive that the notion that significant refitting can be done there doesn’t pass the laugh and giggle test. Their Pacific Fleet facilities appear set up for minor repairs, not major refittings. For that matter, their Pacific Fleet appears to be mostly hulks tied up to docks. I wouldn’t count on any of them to be any more effective than in 1908.

In any event: In a future war, there will be two kinds of ships: Submarines, and targets. Between carrier air groups and attack submarines, it’s unlikely a Kirov class battlecruiser could ever get close enough to a US carrier group to threaten it.

By: Kryten42

Kryten42 — Wed, 19 Oct 2016 04:31:26 +0000

Hmmm. My friend also noted that the discussion currently is whether focusing attention on the Kirov’s is a sleight-of-hand distraction and that Putin is really putting most of the money on the Project 955 Borei-class Nuclear ballistic Submarine. The third has recently been launched, and the project has already had a funded update (Project 09552 Borei-A) for two more updated Sub’s to be built & launched by 2020; or is he banking on both?

Plus a joint-venture with India for the T-50 PAK FA. Since India is pretty cashed up, it makes sense to share the expense. Plus India (apparently) can solve the problems with the advanced BrahMos missile system. 🙂

By: Kryten42

Kryten42 — Wed, 19 Oct 2016 03:52:40 +0000

Yes, I thought that also. I have a friend still in Canberra, who sent me an email when I queried him about whether he’s seen any non-classified traffic. I received a reply earlier.

It seems they got a copy of a recent purchase order:

“The Russian shipbuilding company JSC PO “Sevmash” based in Severodvinsk has ordered the following equipment for the overhaul of Admiral Nakhimov. We believe the list is probably accurate. It appears they have decided on a low-cost upgrade with a (relatively) fast turnaround. Possibly with a future modernisation upgrade. Based upon other reports, we suspect that only one of the remaining two Battlecruisers will be refit. Probably similarly to the Admiral Nakhimov”.

So yeah. Mind you, this “low cost” refit is costing billions of rubles! One curious part was the “OK-650B-3” which is a redesigned Nuclear reactor that was originally for the Sierra class 945 Submarine (for 220 million rbl). It has been rumored that the reactors on at least two of the ships were in a bad way.

It also seems they have cut back on the VLS missile systems. the order included:
4 × 8 UKSK VLS cells fitted with P-800 Oniks (SS-N-26) and/or Kalibr missile system (SS-N-27) for 1.2bln rbl. These were originally designed for the Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates being built.

He also noted that the shipyard had taken out two loans worth 16bln rubles each (about US$1 bln).

It seems they have (at least) repainted the Lazarev and she is in dry dock. The estimated cost was over 10 million rbl. Given the original plan was to scrap her (due to serious reactor issues), I wonder if they are going to do the same (replace the reactor as for the Nakhimov) or is it’s just for show? *shrug*

Photo here:
http://i38.servimg.com/u/f38/19/10/25/87/admira12.jpg

And here is a photo of the Nakhimov before the refit (and apparently the Lazarev was worse) LOL
https://i.imgur.com/Wed0qCx.jpg

By: Bryan

Bryan — Wed, 19 Oct 2016 02:30:32 +0000

I happy that the Russians are spending a lot of money on ‘modernizing’ their old naval vessels, but there is one enemy they don’t have a plan to defeat and that is rust. The Russian navy never worked as hard as the US in scraping and painting, and many of those vessels were sitting in the water, unmanned for years. Russian contractors have picked up a lot of bad habits from their US counterparts, so the quality of work won’t be stellar.

The most probable cause of the loss of the Kursk was an explosion caused by the torpedo fuel. They have a lot of pieces that are well passed their ‘sell by date’, and I definitely wouldn’t want to be a missile launch officer for any Soviet/Russian weapons system. They tend to use very dangerous and unstable fuels.

The Russian military hasn’t been involved in any major action since Afghanistan. There have been Spetsnaz actions but nothing major, and the readiness of the regular military hasn’t been at a decent level for decades.

I see this as a Putin, “I’m tough”, PR move more than anything actually worth spending money on.

By: Kryten42

Kryten42 — Wed, 19 Oct 2016 01:30:07 +0000

The Zumwalt was a good ship. Now, who knows. We may find out soon enough. 🙂

As for Russia… Again, Who knows. *shrug* Things change there almost weekly, not much different from the USA actually. 😉 😀 I do know Putin is selling everything he can & Russia itself isn’t seeing much, if any, of it.

The plan (as currently known) for the Kirov-class Nuclear Battlecruisers are:

The ‘Pyotr Veliky’ (ex Yuri Andropov) has had her refit and is in active service.

The ‘Admiral Nakhimov’ (Kalinin) is nearing the end of her refit & is scheduled to be returned to active duty 2018. The refit was originally proposed to be completed in 2012, but was halted until a final determination of the final modernization variant. In 2014 the refit was restarted. Known Weapon System changes:
10x 8 3M-54 Klub / P-800 Oniks AShM
16x 8 3K95 “Kinzhal” (SA-N-9) SAM (w/ 128 Missiles)
12x 8 S-400PMU Triumph (S-400 (SA-20)) SAM (w/ 96 Missiles)
44x OSA-MA (SA-N-4 Gecko) Point Defence SAM
2x RBU-1000 (Smerch-3) 305mm ASW Rocket Launchers
2x RBU-12000 (Udav-1) 254mm ASW Rocket Launchers
1x twin AK-130 130mm/L70 Dual Purpose gun
10x 533 mm ASW/ASuW torpedo tubes, Type 53 torpedo or SS-N-15 ASW missile
6x Kashtan (CADS-N-1) Point Defence Gun/Missile System

These changes may also be applied these two ships:
The ‘Admiral Lazarev’ (Frunze) modernization & refit has just begun and is scheduled to be completed in 2020.

The ‘Admiral Ushakov’ (Kirov) is in final planning stages, & the modernization & refit is scheduled to start early 2017 for completion in 2021.

These ships were designed to destroy a carrier or battle group. After that, if they died, they died. 🙂 The old USSR decided that 1 ship for a carrier group was a fair trade. There is also a plan to refit and relaunch the SSV-33 ‘Ural’ C³ Ship if the Legenda Sat’s can’t become operational, or if only a few make it.

As far as weapons/Sensor Suite (most already on the Pyotr Veliky):

Missiles:
20x P-700 Granit (SS-N-19 Shipwreck) AShM w/ either: 750kg HE, FAE, or 500kt Nuclear Warhead
14x SS-N-14 Silex ASW Cruise Missiles

96x S-300PS Favorit (SA-10B Grumble) Surface-to-Air Missiles
OR (Dependant on Ship):
48x S-300PS Favorit (SA-10B Grumble) Surface-to-Air Missiles
AND
46 S-300PMU2 Favorit-M (SA-20B Gargoyle) Long-Range SAM w/ NK Orientir Precision Navigation System

128x 9K95 Tor (SA-N-9 Gauntlet) Point Defense SAM
44x OSA-MA (SA-N-4 Gecko) Point Defense SAM

Guns:
1x twin AK-130 130mm/L70 Dual Purpose Gun
2x AK-100 100mm/L60 Dual Purpose Guns
8x A-213-Vympel-B (AK-630M) 6-barreled Gatling 30 mm/L60 PD guns
OR:
6x CADS-N-1 Kashtan Defence System w/ 2x GSh-30K (AO-18K) 6-barrel 30mm Rotary Cannons + 2x 9M311 Launchers w/ 4 Ready-to-Fire Missiles & 32 in reserve.

Anti-Submarine:
1x 10 RBU-1000 305mm ASW Rocket Launchers
2x 6 RBU-12000 (Udav-1) 254mm ASW Rocket Launchers
10x 533mm ASW/ASuW Torpedo Tubes w/ Type 53 Torpedo and/or RPK-2 Viyuga (SS-N-15) ASW Missile

Aircraft: 3-5 Kamov Ka-27 “Helix” or Ka-25 “Hormone” Helicopters

Sensor, Tracking & Engagement Suite:

Radars:
MR-800 Voskhod (Top Pair) 3D Search Radar (foremast)
MR-710 Fregat (Top Steer) 3D Search Radar (main mast)
30N6E2 (Tomb Stone) Beamforming Anti-Jam Engagement Radar (qty. unknown)
64N6E2 NIIIP Big Bird Radar
2x SA-N-6 Fire Control Radar
8x MR-123-02 Fire Control Radar System (for AK-630M)
2x SA-N-4 (Eye Bowl) Fire Control Radar
2x Palm Front Navigation Radar (foremast)

Sonar:
1x (Horse Jaw) LF Hull Sonar
1x (Horse Tail) VDS (Variable Depth Sonar)

Other:
8x SP-521 Electrical-Optical Air/Surface Tracker (for AK-630M)

Electronic warfare & decoys:
2x PK-2 Decoy dispensers (400 rockets)