The Mouse Trap

Kevin Drum wonders about Matthew Yglesias’s endorsement of this strategy:

Zbigniew Brzezinski at the conference says the US and Israel should try to put their demands for Iranian disarmament in the context of support for a regional nuclear-free zone (i.e., Israeli nuclear disarmament). After all, he says, if we’re supposed to believe that Israel’s nuclear arsenal isn’t a sufficient deterrent to ensure Israeli security in the face of Iran’s nuclear program, then it obviously isn’t a very valuable asset.

Matt thinks this will put pressure on Iran and will be a good thing. Kevin thinks it’s a waste of time because Israel wouldn’t agree to it and Iran would use it as a stalling tactic.

They suffer from being unfamiliar with the mind of Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor in assuming that this is aimed at Iran. This is aimed squarely at Israel. Much of the pressure on Iran is coming from AIPAC. Iran is no threat to the US, and not much a threat to Israel, if Israel would stop threatening them.

For people who haven’t been paying attention, Iran is reactive. It looks inward and doesn’t initiate much. It is currently arresting people with ties to the US in reaction to the seizure of five Iranians in Kurdistan by the US. Iran wants a swap. This should be obvious. If we were talking to Iran, the deal would have already concluded. Iran is waiting for the US to notice that this is a good deal for all concerned. Of course, the Hedgemony will ignore it, and the journalists and academics who have been seized by the Iranians are the overall losers.