On-line Opinion Magazine…OK, it's a blog

For the duration this will be at the top of the page, with new posts below it.

Please note that PBS is having to make changes to this meter, as BP changes its story. The new default is the Department of Energy’s final figure of 2,604,000 gallons [62,000 barrels or 8,454.9 metric tons] per day. The total on the meter is the oil that went into the Gulf, as PBS deducts what BP has collected.

Via Pensacola Beach Blog, PBS has a new widget that includes the live feed from BP.

July 15^th Update: BP puts the stop time at 2:25PM CDT.

So NOLA.com has a story from Bloomberg News: BP investigation of Gulf of Mexico oil spill finds several areas of fault

BP’s internal investigation of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster pins some of the blame on the company for mistakes made when finishing the oil well, including misreading pressure data that indicated a blowout was imminent, according to a person familiar with the report.

BP managers aboard the Transocean-owned rig misinterpreted a test of the Macondo well’s stability in April, deciding the test confirmed the well was in good shape, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the report’s findings haven’t been publicly released.

That positive interpretation of the test data cleared the way for rig workers to begin replacing drilling fluid in the well, which is heavier than oil and natural gas, with seawater.

The seawater was too light to prevent natural gas that had begun leaking into the well from shooting up the pipe to the rig, where it exploded and killed 11 workers. The damaged well eventually spewed more than 4 million barrels of crude into the sea, enough to fill two supertankers.

“The entire industry should not be blamed for the actions of one single individual,” John Hofmeister, chief executive officer of Citizens for Affordable Energy and a former Royal Dutch Shell executive, said in an interview with Peter Cook Monday on Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track.”

Why was this given to Bloomberg? The report is coming out, and the accident investigation board will put it in the public record. The information is no surprise to anyone who has been tracking the hearings. There has to be a reason beyond “public service” for getting it out now, rather than just waiting for the report. If we knew the name of person who gave this to Bloomberg, we would know why that person was interested in getting the story out sooner, rather than later.

Even though this agrees with my own analysis, I don’t give it much credibility because the source got anonymity. I suspect that it was someone above the engineer identified in the article who is looking for a scapegoat.

It wasn’t the industry; it wasn’t BP; it was one engineer on the rig. Yeah, right

At 9:20 AM CDT another well lit up the Gulf about 100 miles [160 km] South of Vermillion, Louisiana. CNN has the story : Oil platform fire reported in Gulf of Mexico

(CNN) — A well connected to an oil and gas production platform caught on fire in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, engulfing the vessel in flames about 100 miles off the central coast of Louisiana and forcing 13 people overboard, Gov. Bobby Jindal said.

All 13 people have been accounted for, said Petty Officer Bill Colclough of the Coast Guard. They were found floating on a raft, officials said. Mariner Energy, which owns the Vermilion Oil Rig 380, said none of the crew members was hurt in the incident, despite earlier reports of a single injured worker.

Also, Mariner indicated that the fire — which was first reported to the Coast Guard by workers on a nearby rig around 9:20 a.m. (10:20 a.m. ET) — was not sparked by an explosion. It started at one of the platform’s seven active wells, the company said, though its cause is under investigation.

The company said an initial flyover of the site indicated “no hydrocarbon spill.” However, Coast Guard Petty Officer Elizabeth Bordelon said there is a sheen on the water at the site of the platform, measuring about 100-feet wide and stretching for one mile.
…

During the last week of August, production from the platform averaged approximately 9.2 million cubic feet of natural gas a day and 1,400 barrels (58,800 gallons) of oil, the company said.

Yep, no oil spill, the sheen must be from someone spilling salad dressing or fumes from a fish fry, couldn’t be an discharge… no way… not going to happen [/snark].

Fortunately everyone is safely ashore. The well is in relatively shallow water on a stationary platform and production controls generally work and will shut down in the event of a problem, so it could be a whole lot worse. The thing is that these type of accidents are part of the drilling and production process. They are much more common than people realize, and while they can generally be contained on land, they can’t be contained in the open water.

Oh, the fire still isn’t out. [Update: Nola has continuing coverage.]

Position: 13.5N 39.5W [ 4 PM CDT 2100 UTC].
Movement: West [270°] near 5 mph [7 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph [ 45 kph].
Wind Gusts: 40 mph [ 65 kph].
Minimum central pressure: 1009 mb ↑.

Currently about 1015 miles [1635 km] East of the Lesser Antilles.

Gaston has degenerated to a remnant low and this is the last advisory unless it regenerates.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select "Hurricanes" for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 26.4N 66.7W [ 7 PM CDT 0000 UTC].
Movement: North-Northwest [345°] near 17 mph [28 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph [ 80 kph].
Wind Gusts: 65 mph [105 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 105 miles [165 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1002 mb.

Currently about 425 miles [680 km] South-Southwest of Bermuda.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select "Hurricanes" for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 33.0N 74.8W [ 7 PM CDT 0000 UTC].
Movement: North [010°] near 18 mph [30 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 115 mph [185 kph].
Wind Gusts: 140 mph [225 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 205 miles [335 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 70 miles [110 km].
Minimum central pressure: 948 mb ↑.

Currently about 160 miles [260 km] South-Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Slightly cooler water and higher wind shear are starting to weaken Earl, but it is already affecting the Outer Banks of North Carolina. While it is not as bad as it was earlier, Earl is still a major hurricane.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina northeastward to the North Carolina-Virginia border including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds and Westport, Massachusetts eastward around Cape Cod to Hull including Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for North of of the North Carolina-Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Delaware and Nova Scotia from Medway Harbour to Digby.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Cape Fear to west of Bogue Inlet, North Carolina; from the North Carolina-Virginia border to Sandy Hook, New Jersey including Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach and the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort; the coast of Long Island, New York from Fire Island Inlet northward and eastward to Port Jefferson Harbor; and from New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport including Block Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Sandy Hook New Jersey to Woods Hole, Massachusetts including Block Island and Long Island Sound; the coast of Long Island, New York west of Fire Island Inlet and Port Jefferson Harbor; North of Plymouth, Massachusetts to Eastport, Maine; Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Medway Harbour and from Digby to Fort Lawrence; and New Brunswick from just west of Fort Lawrence westward to the
US-Canada border.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select "Hurricanes" for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 13.4N 37.7W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West [280°] near 12 mph [19 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph [ 65 kph].
Wind Gusts: 50 mph [ 80 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 70 miles [110 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1005 mb.

Currently about 1585 miles [2550 km] East of the Leeward Islands.

This is the busy part of the hurricane season as Gaston becomes the fourth Tropical Storm in the last eleven days.

After looking at the models and discussion on this storm, I don’t think the Gulf of Mexico is going to be happy with Gaston, after the Caribbean is unhappy with the storm. I am not seeing a turn to the North.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select "Hurricanes" for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 21.8N 64.1W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Northwest [305°] near 23 mph [37 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph [ 95 kph].
Wind Gusts: 70 mph [110 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 140 miles [220 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1000 mb ↑.

Currently about 270 miles [430 km] North of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Fiona is stronger this morning as it moves by the Leeward Islands. The Warnings and Watches have been discontinued as Fiona moves North of the islands.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select "Hurricanes" for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 27.8N 73.8W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northwest [330°] near 18 mph [30 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph [220 kph].
Wind Gusts: 165 mph [265 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 230 miles [370 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 90 miles [150 km].
Minimum central pressure: 932 mb ↓.

Currently about 520 miles [840 km] South-Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Earl went through an eye wall replacement cycle yesterday and then sucked in some dry air, but it seems to be recovering over the very warm water.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina northeastward to the North Carolina-Virginia border including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for North of of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Delaware and Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Cape Fear to west of Bogue Inlet, North Carolina and from the North Carolina-Virginia border to Sandy Hook New Jersey including Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach and the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Sandy Hook New Jersey to Woods Hole, Massachusetts including Block Island and Long Island Sound and North of Sagamore Beach to the mouth of the Merrimack River, Massachusetts.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select "Hurricanes" for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

… and the legislature is outraged.

Florida Supreme Court strikes 3 GOP-backed amendments from Nov. 2 ballot

TALLAHASSEE — The Florida Supreme Court struck a blow to the GOP-dominated legislature Tuesday by stripping three proposed constitutional amendments off the November ballot, ruling they were confusing to voters.
…

The rulings are the latest in which the court has asked lawmakers “not to play games when it comes time to write amendments,” said Ron Meyer, a constitutional lawyer who argued against Amendment 7, the legislature’s redistricting amendment. “Stop hiding the ball. Stop wordsmithing. Be direct. In the words of the statute, be clear and unambiguous.”

The Court upheld lower court rulings that Amendment 3 [a temporary tax break], Amendment 7 [redistricting], and Amendment 9 [health care] failed to pass the test for a clear summary that would be put on the ballot, i.e. the summary didn’t explain what the amendments would do.

In the case of Amendment 7, it would neutralize Amendments 4 & 5. Those two amendments were designed to get politics out of the redistricting process and produce compact districts, rather than the rather strange creatures that inhabit the current political map of Florida.

If you are not from Florida, this was about the language that was to appear on the actual ballot. This has nothing to do with what is in the amendments. The Court is not pre-judging the language of the amendments themselves, only the summaries for the ballot. You have 75 words or less to explain what your amendment will do, and the Court decides whether your summary actually does that.

Not satisfied with stealing money paid into the Social Security trust fund for decades by people who work for a living, Mike Baker of the Associated Press is reporting that that Alan Simpson thinks that disabled veterans should join retirees under the bridge.

So, the same night Obama gives a speech praising veterans for their service, the co-chair of his “catfood commission” [National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform] says they cost too much and their benefits should be cut, if not eliminated.

You have to wonder if the White House knows there is an election in November.

Position: 16.9N 59.4W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West-Northwest [290°] near 20 mph [32 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph [ 65 kph].
Wind Gusts: 50 mph [ 80 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 140 miles [220 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1006 mb.

Currently about 260 miles [420 km] East of the Leeward Islands.

Fiona has been catching up to Earl, and the outflow from Earl is generating wind shear that is preventing Fiona from developing.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select "Hurricanes" for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 23.0N 69.9W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Northwest [315°] near 15 mph [24 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 135 mph [215 kph].
Wind Gusts: 160 mph [255 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 200 miles [325 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 90 miles [150 km].
Minimum central pressure: 940 mb.

Currently about 910 miles [1460 km] South-Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

The Turks and Caicos are just within range of Earl’s tropical storm force winds and are getting wind and rain. The surge and wave action kicked up by Danielle and then reinforced by Earl are pounding the islands and resulting in high surf along the US Atlantic coast.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for North of Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas and Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select "Hurricanes" for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]