On-line Opinion Magazine…OK, it's a blog

Position: 31.8N 78.5W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Southwest [235°] near 6 mph [ 9 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph [ 80 kph].
Wind Gusts: 65 mph [105 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 45 miles [ 75 km].
Minimum central pressure: 998 mb ↓.

Currently about 155 miles [250 km] East of Savannah, Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of South Carolina from the Savannah River to South Santee River.

This is not a drill, the season is underway early. Tracking does not currently show the storm making landfall, but the East Coast needs to watch it and get ready.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select "Hurricanes" for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Badtux has posted on this point multiple times. I have hammered it home too. So let’s try it again from someone else.

The Agonist has the TED video embedded that features venture capitalist Nick Hanauer making the point that: Consumers Are The Real Job Creators.

This point is part of the American mythology. Everyone should have heard that Henry Ford paid his workers well, above the prevailing rate, so they could afford to buy the cars they were building.

It is really simple – laying people off reduces demand. People without jobs have no money to spend, so there is a reduction in the demand for goods and services. Markets are where buyers and sellers meet. If there are no buyers, there is no market.

High unemployment is the biggest problem in the US and Europe. It reduces the revenues of business and government. Business is not going to start spending money until it sees an improvement in demand, and demand isn’t going to improve until people get back to work.

Governments are the only entities with the resources to break this cycle.

In shooting a squib round is one with insufficient powder to push the bullet completely out of the barrel. Unlike a dud, there is sound but the barrel is plugged.

That is essentially what happened with the Facebook IPO today but the BBC is more polite: Facebook shares see modest debut

Facebook shares ended their first day of trading at $38.23, barely above the company’s initial pricing of $38.

Shares in the social network rose more than 10% to $42 within minutes of trade beginning, before quickly falling back.

Later gains were wiped out too at the end of a volatile day’s trade, as the firm’s debut on the Nasdaq exchange was also delayed by a technical glitch.

The stock’s underwriters had to buy shares to support the $38/share price, so the actual market price was below that level. NASDAQ was off by 1.24% for the day, joining the down trend in all of the major markets.

I see the press erroneously reporting that principals in the company are now millionaires and billionaires because they own stock that is now being traded. They have paper, not money. Their stock is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it if they sell it. If no one wants to buy the stock, they are broke. That is the dirty little secret of owning stock, as a lot of people with 401Ks have discovered.

Why would anyone buy Facebook stock at a price-earnings ratio of 100 [it would take a hundred years for current earnings to make that much money]. This was heavily promoted by the underwriters and the media, and no one cared. The people with money to invest, are investing it in T-bills, not Internet companies.

Eyes Of The Tigers

We’re watching you!

[Editor: The two tabbies have found a nice place to lounge in a pile of stuff on the side of my house. They are definitely not interested in any interaction with me. They moved from the pump house because of too many 'visitors'.]

Friday Ark

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan-Chase is supposed to be a savvy leader of the financial world. He is nothing more than the latest of a long line of con men pushing Ponzi schemes, with the advantage that he has conned the US government into backing his bets.

Mike Konczal at the Next New Deal looks at What Five Hours From Last Thursday Can Tell Us About Dodd-Frank and JP Morgan. All I could think of is that the House GOP leadership was erasing the memory of John Ashcroft cutting the FBI’s request for counter-terrorism on September 10^th, 2001. Less than 3 hours before Jamie Dimon admits that JP Morgan-Chase has a problem that is somewhat larger than the ‘tempest in a teapot’ he had called it earlier, the GOP voted to eliminate even the weaken version of bank regulation that was being instituted.

Michael Crimmins at Naked Capitalism notes Jamie’s problems aren’t over, because the losses from the failed trade are still coming in, and have increased to over $3 billion. Of course, there is a secondary loss approaching $20 billion in capitalization as the stock market reacted negatively to the news and the stock price tanked.

David Dayen has an interview with Elizabeth Warren on this mess, and she wants Dimon off the board of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, as well as a return to the original Glass-Steagall Act, that prevented banks from gambling with Federally insured depositors’ money.

From the vague comments about what the ‘Whale trade’ was, and a comment that it should have made money no matter what, I get the feeling that Dimon et al. thought they could put up enough money to effectively become ‘the house’ in the financial casino. The one sure thing in gambling is that ‘the house’ never loses. While a true statement, it is only true over the long term, and these guys have no concept of any period longer than a quarter. While other people at JP Morgan-Chase have resigned, the trader is still on the payroll. I have a definite feeling that he is the only one at the bank who knows what he did, and the bank is afraid to cut him loose.

You have to wonder when corporations are going to include provisions in their executive employment contracts that make the contracts null and void if the executive oversees losses of … say, a billion dollars. In a sane world, the board should have met and fired Dimon when the loss became apparent. The concept is called ‘accountability’, and it was once very popular.

As he predicted, Charlie Pierce tells us about Deb Fischer’s win in the GOP Senate primary in Nebraska.

The rancher got last minute support from a whacko with money who ran ads against her opponent, and the ‘priceless’ [= 'worthless'] endorsement from the former half-term governor of Alaska. Ms Fischer won by being to the right of the Tea-Partiers and assorted other lint off the fringe of those who call themselves Republicans. The winning strategy was to let the two front-runners beat the crap out of each other until only one was still viable, and then attack the survivor.

In the general election she faces former Nebraska governor and Senator, Bob Kerrey, who calls himself a Democrat because there are only two choices. Kerrey is a millionaire, so money is not an issue for him [being the bluest of dogs, the Democrats will provide him funding], neither is anything approaching a recognizable political philosophy.

Apparently I was living uncomfortably close to weapons-grade U-235 during my decade in Rochester, New York. CNN reports that Kodak confirms it had weapons-grade uranium in underground lab.

Kodak had a scanner that used 3½ pounds of U-235 refined to over 90% purity in a bunker at Kodak park on State Street. Experts tell us it wasn’t enough to construct a bomb, and people weren’t really in any danger because Kodak had security [pardon me while I roll on the floor laughing, due to having personal knowledge of the quality of people hired for Kodak security.]

So, it is OK for an American corporation to keep weapons-grade uranium inside a city, but Iran must be bombed for having uranium refined to 20% … Does that seem a bit inconsistent to anyone else?

Given what I was doing in the military before I got out and went to Rochester, I would have really liked to have known about living next to that crap. What you don’t know can kill you.

The Local Puppy Trainer reports on the unpleasant surprise just handed out to Florida schools: Statewide FCAT drop worse than expected

In the fourth grade alone, only 27 percent of students earned a proficient score on the standardized test. That’s a 54 percent drop compared to last year. Similar trends occurred in eighth and tenth grade.

FCAT is the Florida Comprehensive Achievement Test, which is supposed to impose ‘accountability’ on the public school system by providing a ‘metric’ to judge performance. Testing, which involves big buck contracts to private companies, like the one owned by the brother of our former governor, John Ellis Bush, were supposed to provide an objective yardstick to judge the quality of schools. The fact that it only showed how well a school could ‘teach to a test’ is irrelevant as it gave politicians a reason to continue to reduce funding to education.

Well, they changed the test, and the way the test is graded, and schools haven’t mastered teaching to the new test, so scores have dropped like a rock. What we don’t know is if the kids are actually learning anything, or if they can think for themselves.

Update: Florida’s Board of Education has ‘fixed’ the problem – they lowered the score need to pass.

Essentially the change in the test for writing skills was to begin grading spelling, grammar, and punctuation. Before the test was just scored on the ability to present a reasoned argument in written form. It really amounted to creating a wordy outline, rather than a finished essay.

The Miami Herald reports on the dilapidated condition of the Miami sewer system.

Having raw sewage flow into the local waterways is a beginning for a cholera outbreak. There are a lot of people in the area who visit Haiti, where cholera is a major problem, and they will bring it back with them. Given the diminished state of the public health system caused by austerity budgets, an outbreak would be devastating. A crumbling infrastructure and reduced public health resources is a recipe for an epidemic.

McClatchy reports on a very positive indicator: IRS crackdown on foreign assets leading many to renounce U.S. citizenship

Last year, 1,780 Americans relinquished their citizenship to avoid disclosing foreign account information to the Internal Revenue Service. This is a sharp increase over 2010, when 1,485 renounced citizenship. In 2009, the number was 731 and in 2008 226.

The increasing numbers of Americans renouncing citizenship is the result of an IRS crackdown: Within the past three years, the agency has stepped up efforts to track down and prosecute U.S. citizens who evade taxes by hiding money and other financial assets in foreign bank accounts.

Why is this positive? Because these parasites have been enjoying the privilege of US citizenship without paying for it. They aren’t simply facing a large tax bill, they could be facing criminal charges over hiding income, and they are avoiding possible prison time for tax fraud.

Let some other ‘host’ country deal with the problem of these ‘moochers’.

Via Duncan, an Independent article about a disagreement between UK businesses and the Conservative government.

Various and sundry Tory ministers are openly complaining about businesses ‘whinging’ [whining, kvetching, or bitching] about the lack of any stimulus in the recent ‘Queen’s Speech’.

The ministers talk like they believe that business is going to step up and jump-start the economy by hiring all kinds of people in face of the declining demand by consumers, while government austerity takes place in the domestic and export markets, causing even more unemployed people and further reduction in demand.

These are true-believers who have done everything they thought the ‘confidence fairy’ wanted them to do, so businesses should now rush in and restart the economy.

For their part, businesses are looking at an economy that has dropped back into recession and can now see the wisdom of John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes, CB FBA. As far as business is concerned austerity is making things worse, so now is not the time to invest.

First, thank you for visiting. We really appreciate the business you bring to out area, and hope you will make visiting our beaches part of all future vacation plans.

As there seems to be some confusion, especially for motorists from Minnesota, I would like to say that the speed limit signs in the state of Florida are in miles-per-hour, not kilometers-per-hour… really, I wouldn’t kid you. You may think that 35 miles-per-hours is a bit fast for four-lane roads with a separate center turn lane, but the traffic signals are set for that speed. This means that if you travel at the speed limit you will never have to stop for more than one light for long stretches.

Again, thanks for stopping by.

This time it was in one of the 16 states in Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia, which accounts for more than 20% of the country’s population. The BBC reports that State election deals blow to Germany’s Merkel

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives have suffered heavy losses in an election in Germany’s most populous state.

Support for the Christian Democrats dropped from 35% to 26% in North Rhine-Westphalia, with the Social Democrats set to return to power with the Greens.

It is the Christian Democrats’ worst result in the state.

Analysts say many voters rejected Mrs Merkel’s tough line on fiscal discipline as a cure for state debt.

Voters in Greece, France and Italy also recently rejected austerity policies.

In another development, Germany’s Pirate Party won seats in North Rhine-Westphalia, making it their fourth state parliament.

The Pirate Party has grown in strength recently with its calls for transparency and internet freedom.

Not even Angie’s own country sees any benefit from austerity, but don’t expect her to change anything. This is a matter of belief for austerians, not a reasoned economic viewpoint. Facts and reality rarely have any effect on belief. Not even losing in the 2013 elections will convince her that she is wrong.

One of the things about being ‘an old guy’ is that I have personal memories of the times in this country that I lived through, and I have given up being surprised at the misinformation and outright lies that are propagated about those times by people attempting to make political points.

There are a lot of things in this country “that have always been this way” that I remember being imposed by politicians, like sticking G*d in the Pledge of Allegiance.

In talking about Social Security, I have made the point that people are not really living a lot longer today than they did when the law was first passed. The real change in demographics has been the number of people who are living through childhood and becoming adults. This change is because of the discovery of vaccines to prevent childhood diseases that killed a lot of people in my age group.

People often characterize childhood diseases as minor and not serious. I had most of them, and that is a load of bullshit. Trying spending more than a week in bed in a darkened room while being force-fed various noxious elixirs and then tell me how ‘minor’ measles is. It killed people. In those days they felt that medicine had to “taste like medicine” [i.e. terrible] to be effective.

NTodd has been writing about Vermont’s mandatory immunization law, and discussing the balance between individual rights and the rights of the community. Both he and Charlie Pierce noted the Whooping Cough outbreak in Washington state that has been declared an epidemic. These outbreaks are caused by people not getting their kids immunized, and, thus, susceptible to these diseases which are always present in human populations.

I flew worldwide in the Air Force and received every vaccine that was available for any disease I might encounter, which was every disease. I have multiple smallpox vaccination scars, which have been discontinued these days, and I was regularly tested for TB as a child, a practice that also seems to have been discontinued. Most of these vaccines have been discovered in my lifetime, and I recommend people take advantage of them, especially for their children. It is a tough day in elementary school when your teacher announces that one of your classmates won’t be coming back.