As Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche wait for another visit from a Category 5 storm, people died around Acapulco as a result of rains and landslides caused by Tropical Storm Henriette on the Pacific coast.  Henriette is on track to become a hurricane before it hits Cabo San Lucas at the southern tip of Baja California Sur and then heading in to the Gulf of California.

2007 is not a good year for weather in Mexico.

Position: 13.8 N/72.9 W.
Movement: West Northwest [285°] near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 165 mph [Cat 5].
Gusts: 200mph
Minimum central pressure: 934 mb.
Hurricane Force Wind Radius: 25 miles.
Tropical Storm Force Wind Radius: 115 miles.

It currently 390 miles Southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

The conditions around the eye are so bad that a NOAA aircraft aborted its mission. The second hurricane and second Cat 5. We may not get as many as predicted this season, but the ones we get are monsters.

10PM CDT Update:

Position: 13.9 N/73.9 W.
Movement: West [280°] near 21 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 165 mph [Cat 5].
Gusts: 200mph
Minimum central pressure: 930 mb.
Hurricane Force Wind Radius: 25 miles.
Tropical Storm Force Wind Radius: 115 miles.

It currently 345 miles Southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Dr. Cole notes there’s an article in the Times that says the US has 1200 targets that will take out the Iranian military in three days.

Lebanon. You remember the recent unpleasantness in Lebanon. The Israeli air force pounded things for 30 days and Hezollah was still dropping rockets into Israel. The Israelis thought they had great intelligence, air supremacy, and veteran fighters, but they couldn’t take out Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s military leadership was trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. One would assume that the Iranians are using some or all of the same tactics used by Hezbollah in their own country.

A US attack on Iran will be viewed as an existential threat by Iran. They will react with everything they have, so you can forget oil production out of the Persian Gulf for months, if not years. The world economy will tank. The American economy will tank. The Shi’ia in Iraq will launch an all-out attack on US forces. It will be a disaster.

The response of these idiots to hurricane Katrina is a prime example of their competence. They lied us into an unnecessary and unwise war with Iraq. What is the point in starting more wars we can’t win?

Pull out of Iraq. Finish the job in Afghanistan. Catch Osama bin Laden. Rebuild the Gulf Coast. Those are doable, worthwhile objectives.

[edited for spelling errors – rants are like that.]

Position: 13.6 N/72.0 W.
Movement: West Northwest [285°] near 19 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph [Cat 4].
Gusts: 165mph
Minimum central pressure: 956 mb.
Hurricane Force Wind Radius: 25 miles.
Tropical Storm Force Wind Radius: 115 miles.

It currently 440 miles Southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

It is now forecast that Felix will become a major Cat 5 hurricane before landfall on the Yucatan. The central pressure has been dropping at a rate of 3.4mb per hour and the eye is contracting.

Position: 13.4 N/71.2 W [1PM CDT].
Movement: West Northwest [285°] near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 125 mph [Cat 3].
Gusts: 150mph
Minimum central pressure: 964 mb.
Hurricane Force Wind Radius: 15 miles.
Tropical Storm Force Wind Radius: 115 miles.

It currently 490 miles Southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

It is now forecast that Felix will become a major Cat 4 hurricane before landfall on the Yucatan. It is still a very tight storm spinning up two levels in about 6 hours. With luck it will have an eyewall replacement cycle before landfall and lose some punch, but it will expand in size as that happens which is not good news for northern Honduras, as it will bring heavy rains and the flooding and landslides associated with the rainfall.

Position: 13.2 N/70.1 W.
Movement: West Northwest [285°] near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 105 mph [Cat 2].
Gusts: 125mph
Minimum central pressure: 980 mb.
Hurricane Force Wind Radius: 15 miles.
Tropical Storm Force Wind Radius: 115 miles.

It currently 50 miles north of Aruba.

While it started out South of Dean’s track, it now is tracking more to the North and may hit in the same area as Dean on the Yucatan. The steering still isn’t certain after it enters the Bay of Campeche and it could strike Mexico further North.

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