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Tropical Storm Humberto — Why Now?
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Tropical Storm Humberto

HumbertoPosition: 29.0 N 94.6 W. [10PM CDT]
Movement: North-Northeast [010°] near 6 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph.
Wind Gusts: 75 mph.
TS Wind Radius: 60 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 995 mb.

It is 25 miles South-Southeast of Galveston.

Position: 28.8 N 94.8 W. [7PM CDT]
Movement: North-Northeast [010°] near 7 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph.
Wind Gusts: 65 mph.
TS Wind Radius: 60 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 998 mb.

It is 35 miles South of Galveston.

Position: 28.6 N 94.9 W. [4PM CDT]
Movement: North near 7 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph.
Wind Gusts: 65 mph.
TS Wind Radius: 60 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 999 mb.

It is 50 miles South of Galveston.

Position: 28.3 N 95.1 W. [1PM CDT]
Movement: North near 6 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph.
Minimum central pressure: 1005 mb.

It is 70 miles South-Southwest of Galveston. Heads up around Houston.

9 comments

1 Steve Bates { 09.12.07 at 2:53 pm }

Yep. Heads up, indeed. Looks likely to be a big rain event here; those who experienced T.S. Allison… including me… are a bit on the nervous side. I really, really hope the models are wrong which show Humberto circling back through Louisiana, particularly that one model that shows it heading for the LA coast after it hits here. They don’t need it.

My most difficult task may be persuading Stella to stay home tomorrow. I mean, normally her stubbornness, um, I mean, determination is a positive characteristic, but even her vehicle would not survive T.S. Allison-like waters.

At the moment, it’s not even raining here. I just took Tabitha to the vet, and neither of us got wet on the way. She wasn’t too happy with being stuck with a needle, though…

2 Bryan { 09.12.07 at 4:49 pm }

The problem is the speed, it’s just creep along. There’s only about two feet of surge, but dropping all of that rain that it can suck in from the Gulf, and then following up the watershed, is bound to cause trouble.

3 Steve Bates { 09.12.07 at 5:11 pm }

Again, yes. The slowness is what made Allison so dangerous… all that rain.

Stella is now convinced. They closed the community college here, and her saxophone lesson was canceled as a result.

Freeport and Galveston are taking some weather already, lots of rain right on the coast. Having once been in a Galveston beach house during a minor storm, I don’t like the looks of those waves on TV. Residents are being redirected to roads less liable to flooding, but there is no official call to evacuate yet. Gov. Goodhair has placed some state emergency resources on alert, for whatever that’s worth. Houston (all partisan prejudice aside) has some pretty good emergency planners in both city government (predominantly Democratic) and county government (predominantly Republican).

Personally, I think we’re as ready as we can reasonably be. And be reassured that while we are only a couple of blocks from a bayou, we have a decent elevation, and drainage is pretty good… I’ve lived here 12 years, and the apartments themselves have never flooded, not even during T.S. Allison.

I’ll be online as long as I have power and a connection.

4 Bryan { 09.12.07 at 7:10 pm }

Keep your computer dry…and, of course, the cats dry…oh, yes, and yourselves.

5 Steve Bates { 09.12.07 at 8:27 pm }

Looks as if it’s going to make landfall east of Galveston. For Stella and me, that’s no bad thing, but of course one person’s fortune is another’s misfortune when it comes to tropical weather.

One of my neighbors didn’t even know there was a storm. No, she’s far from stupid; when she went to work, there was no storm, and when she came home, she didn’t turn on the TV. Quite a few people came home to a surprise.

As noted on my own comment thread, we’ve had one close call today already in Houston. A guy managed to roll his motorized wheelchair off the edge of one of the bayou hike ‘n’ bike trails… why was he there? who knows… and it took several emergency responders to pull him out of the bayou and get him to the hospital. The wheelchair was not so fortunate.

6 Bryan { 09.12.07 at 9:19 pm }

I think it turned a little earlier than anticipated. I just put up the 7PM [midnight UTC] numbers and it’s already going East of North. It needs to start moving, They were talking about it stalling as a low after 48 hours. I hope they need rain where it stalls.

We may need to go back to flags to see if we can alert people, because too many people are coming home too tired to deal with the news.

Those things, if it was a standard motorized wheelchair, are bulky, unreasonably heavy, and subject to tipping over. Most of then have a center of gravity that is way too high.

It may have been one of those “scooters” that they tell people can be used on lawns, but they have many of the same problems.

Dry it out and it should be fine. It’s just an electric motor. The battery is toast, but the chair should be alright.

7 hipparchia { 09.12.07 at 10:06 pm }

depends on whther they wrecked it getting it out of the bayou [the chair].

8 Bryan { 09.12.07 at 10:32 pm }

It will have to be taken apart, cleaned, and then lubed, but the basic chair should be fine. The problem would be if they have to get a tow truck and winch to get it out of the bayou. It certainly isn’t going to roll, especially if it has standard, narrow wheels.

The upholstery is probably shot, but the suckers are expensive and worth repairing.

9 hipparchia { 09.12.07 at 11:16 pm }

they are that [expensive]