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Hurricane Humberto — Why Now?
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Hurricane Humberto

HumbertoPosition: 29.4 N 94.4 W. [12:15AM CDT]
Movement: North-Northeast [010°] near 8 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 85 mph.
Wind Gusts: 95 mph.
TS Wind Radius: 60 miles.
Hurricane Wind Radius: 15 Miles
Minimum central pressure: 992 mb.

It is 20 miles East of Galveston.

Update: at 10AM CDT Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 6:

Based on operational estimates…Humberto strengthened from a 30 kt [35 mph] depression at 15z [10AM CDT] yesterday to a 75 kt [86 mph] hurricane at 09z [4AM CDT] this morning…an increase of 45 kt [51 mph] in 18 hours. To put this development in perspective…no tropical cyclone in the historical record has ever reached this intensity at a faster rate near landfall. It would be nice to know…someday…why this happened.

Currently,

Position: 30.6 N 93.2 W. [10AM CDT]
Movement: Northeast [040°] near 12 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph.
Wind Gusts: 80 mph.
TS Wind Radius: 35 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 990 mb.

If you live on the coast, after the record breaking development of Felix, this surprise leap in intensity near landfall is a bit unnerving. Storms normally lose intensity near landfall as the storm interacts with the land.

6 comments

1 Steve Bates { 09.13.07 at 9:02 am }

Now there’s news to wake up to! Jeff Masters says this could have been a much worse storm if it had had another 12-24 hours over water. Apparently it was bad enough already for the people of Beaumont, Bolivar and surrounding areas. Oh, and it turned out that the wind was pretty destructive, too, contrary to what all of us expected. Humberto is an object lesson, I think.

2 Bryan { 09.13.07 at 10:33 am }

These things are not developing anymore, they are exploding.

3 Badtux { 09.13.07 at 2:39 pm }

I’m just scared something is going to explode nearer to Port Fouchon or New Orleans. The levees near New Orleans are still a mess, and just one more hurricane will likely wash Port Fouchon completely away and with it the only way we have of landing oil from supertankers on the Gulf Coast. The road to Port Fouchon is already only 1 foot above the water at high tide and whereas it was once well inland now it is right on the gulf due to the land on all sides of it washing away over the past 30 years, and a hurricane at the exact right (wrong?) location could wash it away to the point that it was unrebuildable, taking out the pipeline from Port Fouchon to the rest of the Louisiana oil pipeline grid at the same time. My brother is at the lofty altitude of 17 feet above sea level and not particularly worried (he’s 20 miles in from the coast, lives in a 100 year old schoolhouse that was recently remodeled and strengthened and has survived every hurricane for a hundred years, and Rita put only 1 foot of water in his yard — his house is 3 feet above the ground), but the economy of the U.S. would be pretty well toast if we can’t get the Venezuelan oil landed.

4 Bryan { 09.13.07 at 3:17 pm }

We aren’t done with Humberto. There of three of the six computer models saying that the damn thing is going to come back south into the Gulf.

There’s a stretch of US-98 on the barrier island south of me that has washed away 4 times in the last decade, and the guys who rebuilt it wouldn’t guarantee a thing saying the way the erosion is running now, there won’t be any land to rebuild it on in a few years.

If they don’t start renewing the wetlands they had better plan on building causeways, because I know the road you’re talking about and I wouldn’t have driven on it in a thunderstorm.

We know it’s going to wash out, but people don’t understand how critical what was lost in south Louisiana is to their lives.

This is a jarring year. Not many storms, but they have been breaking records for speed and intensity. If we get a good, stout tropical storm hit any near the Mississippi line, a lot of people are going to be shocked by the damage. The FEMA trailers will no longer be an issue, because they won’t be there.

5 Badtux { 09.13.07 at 6:11 pm }

Actually, a proposal to build a causeway to replace LA 1 to Port Fouchon has been in the proposal stage for close to 15 years now. But the Federal Government, the main beneficiary of the oil coming in through Port Fouchon (since Louisiana is not allowed to tariff that oil), refuses to pay the $750 million cost of the new causeway. When 18% of the nation’s oil can no longer be landed because LA 1 washed away beyond the ability to reconstruct it, the nation will regret that, but the politicians currently in office won’t be in office then so why should they care?

Don’t get me started on the FEMA trailer etc. stuff. My blood boils just thinking of it.

6 Bryan { 09.13.07 at 7:01 pm }

Yep, no need to maintain anything, we’ll just cut taxes to get re-elected.