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Libya — Why Now?
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Libya

I avoid writing about this because I have a personal beef with “Colonel” Hows-it-spelled, so I can’t be impartial.

Oil is part of it, but so is Lockerbie and Chad. The initial call for a no-fly zone actually came from Libya’s UN ambassador when he resigned. It was picked up by David Cameron of the UK who quickly gained agreement from Nicolas Sarkozy of France. The two of them weren’t having a lot of luck selling the concept to the EU until the Arab League endorsed the idea, and Lebanon introduced a motion to establish a no-fly zone at the UN Security Council.

The Security Council passed Resolution 1973 with 5 abstentions, and the US finally was engaged in the process.

As soon as the resolution was passed, Sarkozy sent French aircraft into eastern Libya to “enforce” it.

The US was needed to provide some targeting information and the current GPS offsets that the UK and France didn’t have. The US has been dealing directly with the air defense system, and has not been engaged in anything else.

The UK attacked the building in the “Colonel’s” compound, which was obvious from the damage. It was hit by two bunker busters, which is the primary use of the European Storm Shadow cruise missile that is carried by Tornadoes. The UK took credit for destroying a “command and control center” which it probably was, but also put the “Colonel” on notice that he will pay a price for the Lockerbie bombing.

The US mission will actually be over fairly quickly, and we can step back to a support role, as European and some Arab nations fly the fighter cap over the country.

The BBC has a table of the allied weaponry.

The 48th Fighter Wing of RAF Lakenheath lost an F-15E Strike Eagle to mechanical problems in Libya, but the crew ejected and have been recovered. During their last mission to bomb Libya, the Wing lost an F=111 and the crew. I don’t doubt that the crews were told that these missions were payback for the shooting at the Frankfurt airport, another incident most people didn’t notice.

There is no reason for the US to be “in charge” after air supremacy is assured, so in this case, they aren’t kidding when they say we will be out of it shortly.

6 comments

1 Rook { 03.22.11 at 7:43 pm }

I believe a lot of the screaming from various progressive blogs is a sort of PTSD. I am just not willing to see this as similar to Iraq, or Afghanistan. Nor do I believe it is simply about oil. And I do like the way Obama did not get in front of this call for a no-fly zone. I think he played it smart. But I am an ignorant whelp when it comes to international politics. And I’ve learned to flush the toilet after voicing my opinion.

I do feel that this post vindicates my stance on the action. It really is nothing at all like Iraq or Afghanistan. For that I am grateful. I also believe it will not last as long as others are afraid it will last.

2 Bryan { 03.22.11 at 8:23 pm }

The US military is over-stretched and they don’t want another deployment location. The only reason we have to be involved at all is that our “allies” have never bothered to build up their military to the point that they can deal with these things without the US. We have the equipment and resources to take out the air defense systems, and they haven’t bothered to do it beyond the tactical level, i.e. they can suppress air defense for a particular battle, but they don’t have the capability to eliminate it in a country.

What is going on now is the checking for surviving systems, and any advanced systems that may have been hidden. That will take a couple of days, but I feel certain that the bulk of the air defense system was destroyed after the first strike, and they have been mopping up since then. We really don’t have a mission after air supremacy is confirmed.

If they were going to do anything more, the military would have transferred a unit from the US, rather than using the squadrons at Lakenheath.

Oh, the French were involved in a peace-keeping mission in Chad, a former colony, when Libya started playing cute with the rebel forces. That didn’t go over well with the French military who couldn’t respond because of the limits of their peace-keeping mission. They are responding now, as evinced by the smoking ruin that was a Libyan armored column outside of Benghazi. There is a lot of payback for a number of things that Libya has gotten away with over the years.

3 Steve Bates { 03.22.11 at 11:42 pm }

“The US mission will actually be over fairly quickly, and we can step back to a support role, as European and some Arab nations fly the fighter cap over the country.”

Really? Somehow, in the preceding two major military engagements the US has been involved in, it hasn’t worked out that way. Forgive me if I believe it when I see it in this case. A lot may depend on whether Obama needs to appear to be a “war preznit” in 2012.

4 Bryan { 03.23.11 at 12:02 am }

Steve, we didn’t start this, the UK and France did, which is a major difference. The Arab League and UN passed resolutions calling for it, another major difference. We are there for a specific mission and that mission is almost over.

We don’t have any reason to hang around, as this belongs to the Arab League and the Europeans.

Sarkozy wants this, so let him have it. The DoD is not going to be able to sustain this beyond a week, as the forces involved have other missions. At no point have we actually “led” anything, the US simply has the capabilities needed to take out the air defense system, and that is probably already done.

According to CNN, Obama has already called Sarkozy and Cameron to say we’re leaving, so I think we’re leaving.

Update: Sarkozy is also running for re-election, and his polling numbers are worse than Obama’s. Someone else wants to look like a “war president” and to deflect people from domestic issues.

5 Badtux { 03.24.11 at 4:30 pm }

It’s funny how all these third world dictators adopt the military title ‘Colonel’. Reminds me of some gentlemen in the South who wore white all the time and were referred to as ‘Colonel’, the most famous of which is, of course, Colonel Sanders. Apparently honorary ranks amongst Southern gentlemen of a certain age appeal to trashy third world dictators too. Of course, there are those who note that Southern gentlemen of a certain age weren’t far from being trashy third world dictators in the first place…

I haven’t been talking about this action because it’s not clear to me who’s doing what and for what end purpose. Better to keep my beak shut and appear an idiot than to open it and remove all doubt. So it goes.

– Badtux the Snarky Penguin

6 Bryan { 03.24.11 at 5:08 pm }

Actually, unless he was in one of his “dress up” moods, the “Colonel” simply refers to himself as “the Leader”, which is more impressive in the original German.