Soviet/Russia Mechanized Movements
When I was stationed at Rhein-Main Air Base outside of Frankfurt am Main one of our main concerns was the Soviet Army coming in through the Fulda Gap. This was the easiest path for mechanized troops to enter the heartland of Europe from the Soviet Union.
An extremely important piece of information was the weather forecast for East Germany. The path was mud during the early Spring when the ground thawed which allowed us to relax a bit. Tracked vehicles might make it through the muck, but the wheeled vehicles that supplied them with fuel and ammunition would be forced to use roads. Main battle tanks tear up secondary roads, but they would have to travel close to the roads to be supplied. MBTs don’t have Prius fuel economy ratings. This makes them easy targets. If you take out the supply vehicles, the tanks become fixed artillery positions.
The ten-day forecast for the Ukraine shows above freezing temperatures and intermittent rain. The Russians have waited too long for their mechanized units to be fully effective. They were already having trouble with the wetlands in Belarus.
The Russian may invade, but they can’t win. Ukrainians are not Russians and don’t want to be. Guerrilla groups can be supplied via Poland. Once the sanctions begin, Putin will have trouble in Moscow as well as Kyiv. NATO will rearm.
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i was hoping you might share your thoughts on this one, thanks.
Putin assumed that Trump would be reelected and break up the NATO alliance. When Trump lost, he threw the dice to find out if he could win big to help him with his falling power in Russia. He lost. He can invade, but he can’t win. If you’re going to move tanks you need frozen ground or dry ground, midwinter or midsummer. Spring in Belarus and Ukraine is mud.
The Russian boar(sic) has managed single-handedly heal all the Trumpian damage done to NATO. As he underestimated the NATO situation he is also so he (I believe) is also underestimating the economic impact of NATO which includes the US. I’m certain he is projecting his own piggishness for personal wealth on the NATO alliance so he might feel that the economic damage might be short-lived.
the boar would be wrong and his own people will remind him
Putin believes that he should control everything conquered by the Tsars and Stalin. He doesn’t know enough Russian history to realize the the title was “Tsar of all the Russias”, Ukraine, Belarus, and Moscovy Russia constituting the Russias. The languages are different as are the alphabets. Belarus are identified by their refusal to decline numbers. The languages are similar enough that they can understand each other, but they don’t want to. Their churches and liturgy are different. Their histories are different.
Reuniting the “republics” of the Soviet Union is Putin’s obsession and hope for retaining power. He wants to prove he is tough and should be master for life. The body bags with Russian soldiers will start returning and he will have problems. If the oligarchs start losing their condos and vacation homes in the West and their assets are frozen, they will want to remove him.
I agree with the above.
And so it begins… Putin was foolish, perhaps even stupid, to back Dotard to make things easy for him. That was his biggest mistake. And now, he’s forced into making further errors. Perhaps even fatal ones. The Oligarchs have a history of dealing with failures.
I just posted on his declaration of war against Ukraine. Diplomats who deal with him think he is changed and not stable, but he has been planning this for a year. Perhaps Trump losing the election caused him to pause, but it didn’t stop him. He certainly edited the history of the Rus.
His rhetoric just made Finland and Sweden change their mind about joining NATO. In particular, Finland was part of Imperial Russia and hearing Putin ramble about reuniting all of Imperial Russia’s historic territories has them really, really upset. So upset that they may be willing to abandon their historical post-WW2 neutrality in favor of NATO.
In addition Europe will increase military spending. Germany made a U-turn and sent military supplies to Ukraine. There are reports that the Chechen war lord Putin backs has refused to supply troops and Belarussian military don’t like what they have seen so far.
Kyiv is starting to looking like Leningrad in World War II. Draftees are not going to last in that environment. There are also reports of the Ukrainians blowing up bridges and roads after the Russian pass to cut the supply lines.
This is a mess.
I just checked the weather forecast for Kyiv for the next ten days. Temperatures are going to be soaring into the mid 40’s shortly, which will make the muck even worse.
I’m thinking more Stalingrad than Leningrad. I have no doubt that eventually the Russians will manage to get enough tanks and troops through the muck to capture the city. Then they’re going to find themselves surrounded by angry insurgents constantly attacking their supply lines and faced with insurgent attacks non-stop within the city too. And the Russian ability to supply their troops from the air via the airport is as dubious as Goering’s assertion that he could supply Stalingrad by air. A few partisans with Stingers will make that untenable swiftly.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Kyiv+Kiev+Ukraine?canonicalCityId=0b66fcc8c4490e8b96bcf6af087a80df429e7ce442645cf1a27546703dbd551a
There are pictures out of abandoned tracked vehicles that are sunk in the mud. The crews probably bailed after their fuel ran out. This is stupid. The Russian military knows about these conditions from their training areas in country and their history in World War II. They used them against the Germans.
I mentioned Naryshin’s apparent unhappiness with Putin’s plan and I have to assume that many military officers were similarly displeased. The officers should have been aware of the treatment of even successful commanders like Suvorov, Kutuzov, and Zhukov by political leaders they cross. Being right doesn’t protect you from angry autocrats.
I have seen photos of the generals with Putin. They look like very unhappy men. 🤔
I received this on my daily Medium mailout. Makes sense to me. What do you think?
https://seanjkernan.medium.com/russia-will-never-win-f6d878a2ec77
OT: Been offline a couple days. NBN was down. Again. Great… Given that we (Taxpayers) paid the >$50billion (ongoing) for it, and then have to pay to use it (thus showing that Aussies are also gullible morons).
I understand his logic, what doesn’t make sense for me is Russia’s logic. The Russian logistics suck. Do they lack fuel for their vehicles? Why did they attack so late in the winter when there was a chance of thawing? What are they teaching their officers and NCOs? This is SNAFU to the nth degree.
OT: It’s bad enough when private enterprise screws you over, but even worse when they do it with your tax dollars and then charge you for service not rendered.
It’s definitely not looking good! Just about every teen & Adult in the Ukraine is signing up (including a former Beauty Queen who apparently is shaping up to be a capable sniper! If so, she get’s my vote! Kindred spirits & all that. )
A twitter ‘#GeeksResist ‘ friend sent me this. Apparently, a hacking group shut down the control center for Russian Satellites.
https://twitter.com/messages/1134765077112991744/media/1498856181946884102
Also read a report were Russian Solders are actively deserting or just removing their uniforms and going into hiding. But I don’t know how valid that is. It wouldn’t surprise me however,
If even half of that is fact, it’s most certainly SNAFU & will most likely become FUBAR!
Oops! I just realised I used the wrong eMail address for my previous comment! 🤷♂️🙄
“Beaty Queen” –> “Beauty Queen” of course.
I found this article about Anastasia Lenna (it includes a vid from NY Post that apparently attempts to trivialize her willingness to defend her Nation!) I can’t think of any US “Beauty Queens” that would do the same. But maybe I’m wrong. 🤔🤨
https://nypost.com/2022/02/28/ukrainian-beauty-queen-speaks-out-after-joining-war-against-russia/
Putin is switching to terror tactics with cluster bombs and thermobaric weapons on civilians areas. His troops are not happy with conditions at all and are looting stores for food and some have been videoed surrendering to civilians. They look like teenage draftees, not seasoned combat forces.
It looked like they stopped the long convoy outside of Kyiv and may be waiting for artillery and bombing to “soften the target” before going in.
Anastasia is one of many who have no intention of living under Russian rule or Russian puppets.
OT: Your missing comment was in the pending file. I corrected the email address and it published.
Putin ordered an attack on a Nuclear Power plant. Ukrainian officials say that the attack failed & the plant is safe. 🤔🤨😖
The Russian Oligarchy is feeling the pressure & some are not at all pleased!
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/russian-oligarch-abramovich-says-he-will-sell-chelsea-soccer-club-amid-ukraine-furor.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2022/03/02/update-fate-of-russian-billionaire-alisher-usmanovs-mega-yacht-in-germany-uncertain/
OT: Thanks Bryan! 👍😎
UPDATE: Just received this eMail from a company i mostly buy games through. I have also received similar eMails from others.
“Dear Customers and Partners,
The invasion of Ukraine by Russian and Belarusian forces is an unprovoked act of war on innocent people. Kinguin strongly opposes Russia’s actions and stands in solidarity with and supports its Ukrainian colleagues, friends, and the nation’s citizens.
In response to the aggression, Kinguin has decided to:
* Suspend business relations with Russian and Belarusian companies, banks, and sellers.
* Disable Russian and Belarusian sellers from selling through Kinguin.
* Block all the current offers and disable the creation of new ones by Russian and Belarusian sellers.
* Disable all payouts to Russian and Belarusian bank accounts and payment intermediaries.
Those updates will be effective from 4 March 2022.”
Russia has been claiming that Ukrainians are Russian ever since the Grand Dutchy of Muskovy wanted an excuse to conquer the lands south of them and declared themselves to be Rus and their nation to be Russia and those lands (which had never belonged to Muskovy and the majority of the Rus had never left them but instead had cooperated with the Mongols and eventually were assimilated into the Ukrainian culture that developed afterwards) were part of their national heritage and thus it was okay to conquer them. It wasn’t true then, and it isn’t true now. But I suppose that when you’re taught 400 year old propaganda from toddlerhood you believe it.
Still getting pictures of Russian vehicles bogged down in the mud north of Kyiv. The 40 mile long convoy is apparently all the food and fuel for the invasion, and it has stopped because the combat vehicles that were supposed to be defending it are all bogged down. In the meantime they’re throwing random missiles at Kyiv just because they can. Too bad the Ukrainians can’t get a few Su-25’s in there to give them the BRRRRRT treatment that makes A-10 junkies excited (the Su-25 also having an autocannon that does wonders to vehicles). Alas, too many AA batteries in the bogged-down combat vehicles and too many MANPADs in that column to bring in a close-air support aircraft even if they could sneak past the Russian CAP.
True badtux. Sadly.
Bette Midler posted a simple tweet yesterday to explain some USA History for some context:
https://twitter.com/BetteMidler/status/1499500019874820102
So, from this morning’s news drop, it appears Russia has captured the largest Nuclear Power Plant, the Zaporizhzhia compound. There was a fire, but apparently has been extinguished according to the report.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/europe-news/2022/03/05/ukraine-reactor-fire-extinguished/
🤦♂️🙄😖
When George the Long-armed built his Kriml on the Moscow River, Ukraine was still controlled by the khanate and Belorus and Novgorod were paying tribute to the khanate. Moscow didn’t have to defend itself from the khanate and Ioann III the Great followed up on the example of Dimitri Donskoi and defeated the army of the khanate.
Ukraine was seized and ruled by the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the largest country in Europe at the time, until the Queen of Poland married the Grand Duke of Lithuania. The resulting combination included Ukraine, Belarus, as well as Poland and Lithuania.
Kievian Rus was the first of the three Rus. Belarus was second, and Moscow was the third. Putin wants what never was. The first Romanov, Michael I, didn’t rule over Ukraine. Ioann IV, the first tsar, didn’t rule over it. Hell, Xi of China has a better claim than Putin of Russia.
Those vehicles are stalled by tires coming off wheels due primarily from broken seals on the wheel bearings leaking lubricants. A lack of competent mechanics and spare parts is taking out more vehicles than Javelins. There’s no room to get around the disabled vehicles. You’re right, BT, a pass with a Rook/Frogfoot or a Warthog would be very hard on that convoy .
The Russians are moving to control the power generation for the country and using the loss of power as a threat. Meanwhile Russian drones can be destroyed by women throwing jars of pickles.
I’m going to waste time watching a sled dog race in Alaska when not dealing with tenants.
Someone in the Media get’s it & explains. Pretty much as you have stated Bryan.
https://benjaminsledge.medium.com/no-one-has-addressed-why-russia-invaded-ukraine-so-ill-do-it-45892616c10e
“The reason Russia needs to expand its borders has everything to do with natural resources, port cities, mountainous borders to keep other countries from incursion, and populations that aren’t in decline. A bit of both/and, though, is the reason it’s happening at this point in history. The first bit is — as I explained — geography and demographics. The second portion is because Putin has become emboldened by the West’s response to international affairs, beginning with South Ossetia and Crimea, but culminating with recent U.S. and coalition troop withdrawals. We’ve left countries like Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen (even the Russians played around in Syria). The icing on the cake was the U.S. evacuation of Afghanistan last year that became an international embarrassment and is now a human rights crisis. Why be afraid of a dog that’s all bark and no bite?
That’s also the problem. Putin is now a man backed into corner who has nothing to lose and can create catastrophic problems for the West and around the globe.”
Putin is a problem for the Russian people to solve, like Trump is a US problem, and Scomo is an Australian problem. Any external “solution” is blocked by nuclear weapons and national pride. If NATO attacks Russian forces, the Russian people will back Putin, and Putin may use nukes.
I think NATO has finally convinced Poland to send their MiG-29s and SU-25s to Ukraine based on NATO promises to replace them. They will help, but high altitude anti-aircraft systems will be more help as would a few Israeli Iron Dome anti-rocket systems and some anti-ship missiles for the Black Sea Coast.
NATO convinced Poland to send their jets to Ukraine via the United States as an intermediary, but then the United States refused to do the transfer, saying that the jets would be useless because Russia has total SAM cover over the operations area of Ukrainian airspace. Instead the US proposes to transfer Soviet-era SAM batteries from Eastern European states that have the capability to deny the Russians access to the skies over Ukraine. Which prevents Russian jets from bombing Ukraine to pieces from in the sky, but that’s not the problem right now, the problem is artillery. The US also proposes sending Ukraine counter-batteries to take out Russian artillery, which would be quite useful right now with Russian artillery pounding Ukrainian cities to rubble, but I think it’s probably a case of too little too late by now because the Russians have pretty much tightened a stranglehold around the cities they are currently bombarding to rubble and there’s no way to get the counter-batteries to the cities where they’re needed.
If Biden had done all this two weeks ago it would have been useful. But that’s Biden for you. He’s always a few steps behind.
Biden is cautious and keeps looking for consensus among NATO. Early on he had momentum but let it drain away. He should at least locate shells for the equipment the farmers have swiped. 😉