Posts from — August 2010

If you watch tropical events for an extended period one of the problems is that they reuse names every six years. This year they are using most of the names that were used in 2004, which was a very busy year indeed.

There are four names that are not being reused: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. If a storm is bad enough, the name is retired. Those four and Tropical Storm Bonnie hit Florida that year and we got the first hint that FEMA was broken. The Bush brothers talked a good game, it was an election year after all, but after the election the people affected were ignored.

We got all the way through to Otto in 2004, but few people realized that it was just a scrimmage, and the real game would be 2005. We were too busy trying to clean up the mess so we could rebuild, and neither FEMA or the insurance companies were making it easy.

Position: 16.6N 55.4W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West [280°] near 20 mph [32 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph [100 kph].
Wind Gusts: 75 mph [115 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 160 miles [260 km].
Minimum central pressure: 989 mb ↓.

Currently about 520 miles [ 835 km] East of the Leeward Islands.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Saint Martin, Saint Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for British Virgin Islands, US Virgin Islands, and for the islands of Culebra and Vieques.

Earl strengthened overnight and is expected to curve towards the Northwest.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 31.5N 58.8W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northeast [030°] near 20 mph [32 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 105 mph [165 kph].
Wind Gusts: 125 mph [195 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 185 miles [295 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 70 miles [110 km].
Minimum central pressure: 958 mb ↓.

Currently about 1095 miles [1760 km] South-Southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

The Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda has been canceled.

Danielle ran into stronger wind shear and a change of steering overnight. The storm dropped to a category 2 and turned away from its path towards Bermuda.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

As the Pensacola News Journal reports corporations don’t like it when they lose over a billion dollars:

Real estate developer St. Joe Co. is seeking unspecified damages against M-I SWACO for a decline in the value of its 577,000 Panhandle acres and in its developments. At its worst point during the massive Gulf oil spill, the company said it lost about $1.4 billion in stock value.

…St. Joe filed a similar action against Halliburton on Aug. 4 and the company has said it plans to sue others involved in the BP well.

St. Joe Companies is the biggest land owner in the Panhandle. They bought up pine forests for use as pulp for their paper products, and discovered that their land along the beach was worth big bucks when they put tacky “communities” on it. They will be suing everyone involved with the Well from Hell.

David Hammer of The Times-Picayune filed a report, BP manager, boss both ignored warnings before Deepwater Horizon blew, from the hearing in Houston.

This is an assignment for Joseph Heller. The testimony in these hearings could be part of Catch 22. A BP executive testifies that he doesn’t know the chain of command for this well‽ It is costing the corporation billions of dollars, and Wells doesn’t know the names of the people in charge when the well blew up‽

If someone is planning a play or movie based on the tragedy, some of the testimony will provide the comic relief.

Position: 16.0N 47.9W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West [275°] near 20 mph [32 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph [ 85 kph].
Wind Gusts: 65 mph [105 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 85 miles [140 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1002 mb ↓.

Currently about 1015 miles [1635 km] East of the Leeward Islands.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for French Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

While conditions are good for strengthening, Earl seems content to just move East away from the dry air to the North.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 28.1N 60.6W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northwest [355°] near 10 mph [16 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 135 mph [215 kph].
Wind Gusts: 160 mph [255 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 205 miles [335 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 60 miles [ 95 km].
Minimum central pressure: 942 mb.

Currently about 385 miles [ 615 km] Southeast of Bermuda.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

The storm spun up overnight into a very small category 4 storm, the first major hurricane of the season. Bermuda is already experiencing the swells generated by the storm and the US coast will start seeing high surf and rip tides this weekend.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Bad Choice

zzz…zzz…zzz…

[Editor: This is not a gargoyle with a fear of heights, not a clog in my neighbor’s gutter, but a kitten who has selected the wrong place to nap with a thunderstorm approaching.

The Friday Ark is in dry dock this week.

First off, let’s be absolutely clear – Alan Simpson is not the model for Grandpa Simpson. He is obviously the model for Mr. Burns…

Lambert has the relevant quote:

“Yes, I’ve made some plenty smart cracks about people on Social Security who milk it to the last degree. You know ’em too. It’s the same with any system in America. We’ve reached a point now where it’s like a milk cow with 310 million tits!”

If you are going to borrow from H.L. Mencken, you should try to get it right: “a milch-cow with 125 million teats”.

If you are going to complain about the system, you might want to explain that you have only spent 8 years since graduating from college without receiving a check from either the state or federal government. That was the terrible time after you graduated from law school on the GI Bill worrying if your Dad would hire you for his law firm while he was finishing his term as governor, until your Dad went to serve out a Senate term, and you won your seat in the state legislature.

Melissa is quite correct that the White House has no business accepting an apology that was to another. It is up to Ashley Carson, Executive Director of the Older Women’s League, to decide whether the weaselly worded drivel sent over Simpson’s name was an actual apology.

Having an obnoxious clown like Simpson as the “co-chair” of the “catfood commission” [National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform] is insulting. He draws Social Security and a Congressional pension. His health care is covered by Medicare, his Congressional plan, and the VA. He doesn’t have to worry about his retirement, and obviously doesn’t care what happens to young people today when it is their turn to retire.

Simpson is a “conservative” – an ignorant, arrogant, greedy sod who wants the line about “promote the General Welfare” removed from the preamble to the Constitution.

FYI: The not-so-charming Ron McNeil, who was running in the Republican primary for the Second Congressional seat came in third with 10.7% of the vote.

In reading things around the ‘Net I noticed that the talking heads are now saying that there are no trends this year. Excuse me, but just because the trends can only be applied to the Republicans, doesn’t mean they don’t exist. The tea-partiers have scored some primary successes against incumbent Republicans who were deemed not conservative enough, and wealthy people can buy the major spots on the ballot in those same primaries.

I realize that the accepted narrative is to find trends for the Democrats to lose, and discovering reasons why the Republicans may not win doesn’t advance that media goal, but facts are facts. The tea-partiers are Republicans and they are having a major effect on the GOP. That why John McCain emptied his campaign coffers in the primary – he understood. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska didn’t, and she is hoping for a miracle among the absentee ballots to survive the primary.

Position: 15.5N 40.2W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West [280°] near 17 mph [28 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph [ 75 kph].
Wind Gusts: 55 mph [ 90 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 85 miles [140 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1003 mb.

Currently about 1525 miles [2455 km] East of the Leeward Islands.

The storm is looking better organized and is starting to strengthen.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 25.8N 57.6W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Northwest [315°] near 12 mph [19 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 110 mph [175 kph].
Wind Gusts: 130 mph [210 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 205 miles [335 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 50 miles [ 80 km].
Minimum central pressure: 965 mb ↓.

Currently about 625 miles [1005 km] Southeast of Bermuda.

There are no watches or warnings, but Bermuda should be paying attention as the storm is expected to be the first major hurricane of the season.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

This is from the MSNBC coverage of the hearings on the sinking of the Deepwater Horizon: BP was warned of gas danger, contractor says

HOUSTON — A contractor to BP testified Tuesday that he warned BP that it risked gas leaks in the Macondo well if it cut back on stabilizers for the pipe going down the hole. The warning, he told the Coast Guard-led inquiry into the disaster, was sent via e-mails to BP engineers, including one who refused to testify on Tuesday.

Jesse Gagliano, a technical advisor for Halliburton, which was contracted to cement the well, testified that two days before the explosion he sent BP a computer model showing severe risk of gas flowing into the cemented well if it used fewer than seven “centralizers” at different depths of the pipe.

“I notified BP of the potential issue,” he said, adding that in addition to e-mails he shared his concerns with BP engineers with whom he shared an office.

A BP lawyer who cross-examined Gagliano noted that three days after the explosion — in which gas surged up the drill pipe, causing a fireball — Gagliano wrote a report that never mentioned concerns about the stabilizers.

Earlier Tuesday, BP engineer Brian Morel invoked his Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate himself by answering questions.

The problems with the well were known to everyone working on the project, but BP still cut corners with a disastrous result. That’s why BP officials keep refusing to testify under oath, while all of the other people involved are willing to go on the record.

This is about ensuring that the drilling pipe is centered inside the casing and not touching it at any point so that the cement will set without any gaps or weak spots.

Attorney General: Dan Gelber [D] v. Pam Bondi [R] – Dave Aronberg shouldn’t have tried the BP link to Dan – the race had been straight forward until that point and people were tired of what was going on in other races.

The local school board did not get its sales tax increase, and shouldn’t have tried it under current conditions. Having it on a primary ballot was the kiss of death because the people who would support it generally don’t vote in primaries. Only 29.2% of registered voters turned out, and the Dems tended to vote in the Senate primary and nothing else.

I got most of the local races right, and we dumped some of the detritus that often collects in local government.

It was noticeable that Bill McCollum did not endorse Rick Scott. Of course, Scott promised to run Florida like a business, reduce regulations and cut taxes because those things have never worked before, so they should be tried again… and again… and again.

Position: 14.7N 36.6W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West [275°] near 16 mph [26 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph [ 65 kph].
Wind Gusts: 50 mph [ 80 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 60 miles [ 95 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1006 mb.

Currently about 615 miles [ 990 km] West of the Cape Verde Islands.

The storm will probably spin up to hurricane status by Friday.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]