Posts from — September 2010

After more than two weeks of negotiations the political deals have been made that will continue the Labor Party’s tenuous hold on the reins of the government, according to the ABC – Labor day: Gillard retains grip on power

Prime Minister Julia Gillard says she will pump almost $10 billion into regional programs after today scraping back into power with the support of two key independents.

Ms Gillard has pledged to work tirelessly for the Australian people and says she will try and find common ground with the Coalition as Labor heads into its second term in government.

Two independents today broke the political deadlock by giving their votes to Ms Gillard in a Labor minority Government. She has advised Governor-General Quentin Bryce of the developments.

One of the more important points in the negotiations, apparently, was the desire of the independents to have a government that would last for three years. Comments seem to indicate that they felt the Coalition would call early elections to consolidate their power [and eliminate the need for the independents].

The next major event will no doubt be the meeting of the Labor Party and the election of a leader. After this election I’m not sure that Ms Gillard is an automatic selection for the job. This is the sort of thing that makes the parliamentary system more interesting than the US system and keeps people involved.

I need a break as I tweak some bits from the upgrade yesterday.

Position: 31.6N 99.5W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North [350°] near 16 mph [26 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph [ 55 kph].
Wind Gusts: 50 mph [ 80 kph].
Minimum central pressure: 1003 mb.

Currently about 60 miles [95 km] South of Abilene, Texas. The storm has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression and is drenching Texas.

At 10:50PM CDT the National Hurricane Center announced that it had made its last advisory on the storm.

The storm made landfall at about 8:30PM CDT last night in Northern Mexico about 105 miles [170 km] North-Northeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 40 miles [65 km] South of Brownsville, Texas.

All warnings and watches have been canceled.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

I’m beginning the process of upgrading to the latest version of WordPress and should be finished by 8PM CDT [0100 UTC].

There may be a short period when the blog is unavailable, but this normally doesn’t cause a major meltdown [famous last words in technology circles].

Update: Things seem to be working with minutes to spare.

Position: 25.5N 97.5W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northwest [330°] near 14 mph [22 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph [ 95 kph].
Wind Gusts: 70 mph [110 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 105 miles [170 km].
Minimum central pressure: 991 mb.

Currently about 30 miles [45 km] South of Brownsville, Texas.

The storm made landfall at about 8:30PM CDT in Northern Mexico about 105 miles [170 km] North-Northeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 40 miles [65 km] South of Brownsville, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bahia Algodones, Mexico northward to Port Oconnor, Texas.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

If you are a US resident I hope you enjoy this panicked and unsuccessful attempt to salvage the Democratic nomination for President by Grover Cleveland, the 22^nd and 24^th President. Having sent in Federal troops and marshals to break the Pullman Strike, Grover thought he could win back support from labor by giving them their own holiday before the bodies of the workers killed by said troops and marshals were cold in the ground, and to preempt the possibility of labor declaring May 1^st, the commemoration of the Haymarket affair, a day for labor action.

It is rather unique, as it is the only holiday I’m aware of that was imported from Canada where it’s spelled Labour Day.

When I was young, Labor Day was the last day of summer vacation from school, but now schools start in early August, so it’s just a long weekend filled with annoying drunken boaters clogging up my little street with their trailers.

Position: 20.7N 95.2W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North [005°] near 7 mph [11 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph [ 45 kph].
Wind Gusts: 40 mph [ 60 kph].
Minimum central pressure: 1006 mb.

Currently about 270 miles [435 km] Southeast of La Pesca, Mexico.

[I shouldn’t have mentioned the possible break until tomorrow.]

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Tampico to the mouth of the Rio Bravo/Grande.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

This is the first day in the last two weeks in which there isn’t even a Tropical Depression in the Atlantic Basin, but it won’t last.

Update: I spoke too soon.

I’m watching a low pressure area at the South end of the Bay of Campeche that might be the remnant of Pacific Tropical Depression 10E. It is slowly moving to the Northwest and has favorable conditions for development. If it continues on its current track it will be short-lived, coming ashore around the Texas-Mexico border as a Tropical Storm at most.

Then there is Gaston, which faded to a remnant low, but appears to be regenerating as it heads towards the Lesser Antilles. It is surrounded by dry air at the moment, but seems to be getting organized. When it organizes will determine its track. If it spins up quickly, it will probably turn to the Northwest, otherwise it will continue to the West.

There is another nasty piece of work due to enter the Atlantic from Africa. It looks menacing over land, but it could fade. All of the activity South of the Cape Verde Islands may have caused the upwelling of cooler water, which would help dampen development.

The Associated Press is reporting that the Failed blowout preventer on BP oil well reaches the surface. They finally got it aboard at about 7PM CDT after almost 30 hours. The FBI was waiting on the vessel and will escort the BOP to a NASA facility for examination.

McClatchy reports that Up to 90% of oysters dead in Mississippi reef sample

PASS CHRISTIAN — Officials from the Mississippi Department of Marine Resources took oyster fishermen out on the reefs off the Pass Christian Harbor on Wednesday to give them a preview of what to expect from the upcoming oyster season.

Catches resulting in an abundance of empty oyster shells led some fishermen to doubt the viability of the season, which typically begins in September or October.

“We’ve lost this season,” oyster dredger Loe Nguyen said.
…

Scott Gordon, director of the DMR shellfish bureau, said there have been more oyster mortalities this year, but he doesn’t know whether it can be attributed to the BP oil spill.

That’s right, Scott, it might have been a roving gang of Chinese Red Starfish that wiped out the oysters… 😈

Keith at the Invisible Library wrote a post, Either Or, about the “game” that Jon Stewart started usually called “Evil or Stupid”. Keith points out that the sets are not exclusive and there are certainly some people who are both evil and stupid.

I favor “ignorant” over “stupid” because “stupid” implies that they are incapable of understanding, while most people to whom the designation would apply are either uninformed or misinformed. Someone who doesn’t apparently know that Medicare is a government program is ignorant without regard to the reason.

Keith mentioned Grey’s Law, “Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice“, and that sent me on a search.

You start with Ockham’s razor: “entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem”

[Isaac Newton’s translation: “We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances. Therefore, to the same natural effects we must, so far as possible, assign the same causes.“]

Using that format you travel to Hanlon’s Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity“, which is seemingly almost the same as Grey’s Law, but you need one more piece.

Clarke’s Third Law states: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

Most things are derivative, but that’s a slightly different field of math.

As if the destruction caused by the earthquake wasn’t enough, people fled from houses and apartments in their nightclothes in the winter, and now Gale force winds head for Christchurch.

The storm will probably knock down some of the damaged buildings and the associated rain will destroyed things that might have been salvaged if there was time.

You would think that the media has enough to report on without starting fights over nothing, but they just can’t resist.

Professor Stephen William Hawking, CH, CBE, FRS, FRSA has a new book coming out, The Grand Design, which will be released on September 7, 2010.

Like many books today, the publishers have sent out review copies to the media, hoping for some nearly free publicity. Professor Hawking’s earlier book, A Brief History of Time, was a best-seller, so the media couldn’t really ignore it.

The problem is that the only part of the new book they want to talk about is a brief passage: Stephen Hawking: God did not create Universe.

With a statement like that it was obviously time to invoke Clarke’s Fourth Law, “For every expert there is an equal and opposite expert“, which CNN does: Religious leaders hit back at Hawking.

Religion and science are different spheres and they don’t intersect. Religion is about belief which is not a subject that can be proved or disproved – it is. Science is all about proof, which is constantly tested and subjected to attack. If people would just accept that reality, the world would be a more peaceful place.

[Note: since I started composing this entry, the Wikipedia page I linked to for a brief description of the book has been pulled. No doubt it was under attack. The release date link is Amazon if you are interested.]

Position: 50.7N 59.2W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northeast [030°] near 46 mph [74 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph [100 kph].
Wind Gusts: 75 mph [115 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 240 miles [390 km].
Minimum central pressure: 970 mb ↑.

Currently about 180 miles [295 km] Southwest of Marys Harbour, Labrador.

Earl made landfall near Western Head, Nova Scotia earlier this morning as is moving at very high speed to the Northeast. Earl is now Post-tropical and this will be the last advisory.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will continue to issue statements.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Newfoundland from Stones Cove to Boat Harbour.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

While I was watching tropical storms in the Atlantic the Kiwis around Christchurch on the South Island had an earthquake to start their Saturday morning [09/04 4:35AM in New Zealand, 09/03 11:35AM CDT]. The 7.0 tremor lasted about 40 seconds, which is an eternity, with an epicenter only 30 miles from the city. The technical details and a location map from the US Geological Survey.

TVNZ’s current article: State of emergency declared, airport reopens

Civil Defence has declared a state of emergency in Christchurch following a massive earthquake in the city early this morning.

The magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck about 41km west of Christchurch at 4.35am today, at a depth of 10km, causing injuries, structural damage and gas leaks, cutting power, and rupturing water and sewerage mains.

Roads are blocked by debris, some in the central city caused by building frontages of older buildings collapsing.

Cars have been crushed under the rubble, and wardens are warning people to stay away from older buildings as they fear further collapses.

Christchurch Hospital spokeswoman Michele Hider said a number of people had received minor injuries but two – both men in their 50s – were more seriously injured.

One was hit by a falling chimney and was in a serious condition in intensive care, while a second received serious injuries after being cut by glass.

Roads and bridges are reported damaged, but Christchurch is on the coast, so heavy equipment could come by sea. So far there are no reported deaths.