The Ukraine is once again on the tipping point between Europe and Russia. The election and its aftermath are swirling around this question.

The conventional story is that the nation of Russia was founded in 862 when the Viking leader, Ryurik, was elected as the prince of Novgorod. This notion and the date are based of the annals of Novgorod, the oldest surviving records. Archaeology shows that Keiv, the capitol of the Ukraine, is the oldest city, and was the center of early Russia. When Ioann IV became the first Tsar of all the Russias in 1547 the capitol was Moscow. The Mongol invasion and destruction of Kiev pushed the center of power to Novgorod, and then Moscow.

There were three recognized divisions: the Great Russians, the White Russians, and the Little Russians. The Great Russians are now known simply as the Russians, the White Russians use the Slavic version, Belarus, and the Little Russians are the Ukrainians. The languages display their common roots, but they have separated over the centuries.

When the Mongols were evicted, the Ukrainians came under the power of their Lithuanian and Polish neighbors, but eventually rejoined the Russian Empire in 1654 under Tsar Alexis.

When the Soviet Union broke up in the early 1990’s not everyone was thrilled. There are elements in Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine who want to form a confederation, as well as no small number who think the Russian Empire should be re-united. They enjoyed being a superpower, and want to return to that status.

Lukashenko of Belarus and Putin are on-board with a confederation, Lukashenko believes he will be the leader of the confederation and Putin knows that he will control it. This leads to the Ukrainian election.

The apparent winner, Yanukovich, is Putin’s man and will lead the Ukraine into the new confederation. The opposition candidate, Yushchenko, wants the Ukraine to become a full-fledged member of the European Union.

The keys to the Ukraine are the opinions of the Military and the Security apparatus. The model for the governments of the former members of the Soviet Union is this troika: Party-Army-KGB, the Russian version of checks and balances. If the Party, represented by the current President Kuchma, can get either the Army or the KGB to back him in a confrontation with the opposition, Yanukovich takes over. If both back Kuchma, the protests will be put down and the current government officials can continue looting the country. If only one backs Kuchma there will be violent struggles. If both back Yushchenko, there will be trouble, but it is possible that a new, fairer election will be held.

Currently it looks like both the military and security are sitting out the problem, but the “Orange” [Yushchenko’s opposition supporters] are ramping up their protests. The Ukrainian supreme court has put things on hold pending an investigation of voting “anomalies” and could order a new election.

Another problem is the ethnic mix: ethnic Ukrainians tend to live in the West, while ethnic Russians live in the East. There are also major groups of Rumanians, Tatars, and Kazaks living in the Ukraine. The country is torn down the middle.

If a new election is held and determined to be fair, that doesn’t automatically mean that Yushchenko will win. The Ukraine is a divided country and the result will depend on voter turn-out. Whoever wins, nearly half of the population will be diametrically opposed to their policies. The legislature is evenly split with opposition parties holding a small majority.

Putin is on the path to becoming Rasputin. Vladimir is apparently more interested in ruling the world, than being a peaceful ruler.

More can be found at LIVE at the Nuke Free Zone.

[edited for an egregious swap of directions.]

[ed: This is a generally true story inspired by a post over at the Yellow Doggerel Democrat, home of Steve Bates, doggerelist, musician, computer guy, and liberal.]

I got a panicked call at one in the morning from my Mother about 5 years ago. She wanted me to shoot the biggest “white rat” she had ever seen. The “rat” was eating from her dog’s food dish in the kitchen.

After a routine response regarding firearms safety and the possible housekeeping consequences of discharging a shotgun in her kitchen [ed: You get really weird when people wake you up from a dead sleep.] I went over to her house and found a baby opossum chowing down on Kibbles and Bits by her refrigerator. My Mother’s poodle was going berserk at this affront to his dignity and violation of his space.

As my Mother has ceramic tile floors I trapped the little fuzzball with a toilet plunger and slid him out the door. I fastened the hook on the screen door to back porch, the assumed point of entry because of a loose return spring, and went home.

Two nights later, another baby possum inside, this time Kelley was standing defiantly in front of his food dish, forcing the possum into the living room.

This time I got him to climb a broom handle and took him to a patch of brush well away from my Mother’s house.

Things were back normal for a while, other than having to pull out my Mother’s dryer to re-attach the vent hose. That’s when I figured out that the young possum had managed to open the outside vent hatch and crawled in the hose which disconnected from the back of the dryer and gave him access to her house. I added a new exterior vent to my “to do” list [ed: A list that has included the return spring for that door for an extended period.] and went back to programming.

A week passed and he was back.

There on the rug by the outside door to the laundry room was fresh spoor. [ed: Spoor is “Hemingway” for possum poop.]

Mother wasn’t interested in waiting out B’rer Possum, so an expedition was made ready.

With the able assistance of the keen nose of that Possum pooch nonpareil, Kelley [ed: A not-so-miniature apricot Poodle, who was bouncing off the walls because he knew the Kibble-napper was back.], I rapidly located the interloper. [ed: You walked right by him on your way out to the back porch, but caught sight of him on your return.]

The kilogram of Killing Machine was climbing a dust mop handle in preparation for plundering Kelley’s back-up supply of Beggin’ Strips hanging in a bag in the laundry room.

Quick action corralled the marauder and he was duly ejected from the premises. [ed: He fell into a bucket when you startled him and you took the bucket outside.]

The exterior feline patrol reacted instantly to the potential threat by taking up guard positions around the Marsupial of Mayhem. [ed: The flea-bitten slackers wandered over and sat down to watch him haul leaves into the bucket and make a nest.]

Having learned his lesson, the marauding marsupial never attacked again. [ed: You finally got off the stick and put a metal grill over the dryer vent, replaced the return spring, and the possum decided to dine at the feral cat feeding station.]