The Dilemma
No one wants Ike to hit them, but that means it hits someone else because it still hasn’t started a turn to the North and its headed into the Gulf after smashing through the Turks and Caicos Islands, the lower Bahamas and Cuba.
From the standpoint of the amount of damage it can do, you don’t want it to head to the westernmost Gulf, because that mass of green is the warmest water in the Gulf. The purple is the result of the passage of recent hurricanes and tropical storms, and it could take the edge off of Ike.
The real problem, and the reason for the shifting tracks of the various models is that there aren’t any obvious, strong steering mechanisms for the storm. Currently a trough [elongated area of low pressure] is scheduled to build in and attract Ike, but it is doesn’t appear to be strong, which could leave Ike wandering around the Gulf for days. That happened in 1985 with Hurricane Elena and drove people nuts.
Those of us who live on the Gulf Coast can only watch and wait.
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And all this is driving the computer models nuts. They’re showing Ike going every which way after it finishes with Cuba. I obviously for selfish reasons hope it doesn’t head towards Louisiana (not to mention that South Louisiana still doesn’t have its power back and would have difficulty hearing and heeding evacuation orders), but if it heads towards the mouth of the Rio Grande or to the south of there you’re right, things are gonna get nasty down there…
As I said below, I’ve been avoiding talking about the Louisiana landfall possibility. There’s cooler water up there, but it only makes a significant difference if the storm slows down.
If the lack of steering causes it to stall, then it can cause it’s own demise by churning up the cooler water at the bottom, which had a lot to do with Hanna’s fading.
All we can do is watch and wait.
Oh, I think your brother is going to be SOL on the generator. The local sleazy buggers have already loaded up and headed west to price gouge with the local supply. Lowes and Home Depot should be shipping in what they have, which is what they did around here in 2004 and 2005. With the really long estimates on restoring power, the demand will outstrip the supply in no time.
Geez. Makes you think you better not even think…”what next” for fear that it might put something out there in the time/space continuum.
I remember one really big jolt here in Santa Barbara years ago, they were selling gasoline for $10 a gallon. It’s supposed to be against the law, but they still do it anyway. I always keep minimum 1/2 tank of gas in good ol’ saabi.
It is against the law in Florida and prosecuting violators when he was attorney general helped Charlie Crist when he ran for governor. It is also rampant, with tractor trailers showing up in parking lots and being hung with a banner about the generators. As soon as the trailer empties, they are gone. All sales final; cash only.
It probably deals with quantum mechanics and chaos theory. If I find that butterfly, it’s toast.
we have had 10+ years of increasingly stronger storms and more of them
but there is no climate change
toasted butterfly, mmm. but good luck, i think that one probably escaped through the quantum tunnel.
Come on, DCap, haven’t you heard that Al Gore has some extra pounds 😈
I suspect it’s hiding in Schrödinger’s cat box, Hipparchia.