Hurricane Ike – Gulf of Mexico 2

Position: 26.3 N 90.4 W. [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC]
Movement: West-Northwest [290°] near 12 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 100 mph [160 kph].
Wind Gusts: 120 mph.
Hurricane Wind Radius: 115 miles [185 km].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 265 miles [425 km].
Minimum central pressure: 956 mb ↑.

It is 445 miles East-Southeast of Corpus Christi and 340 miles Southeast of Galveston, Texas.

From the NHC experts [4AM]: “Ike continues to exhibit some unusual structural characteristics. Dropsonde and flight-level wind data indicate that the intensity is still near 85 kt…which is anomalously low for the reported central pressure.”

From the NHC experts [10AM]: “Data from Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that Ike is maintaining an atypical wind structure…characterized by a very broad wind field with multiple wind maxima and relatively little transport of winds aloft down to the surface.  The NOAA aircraft reported maximum flight-level winds of 103 kt 100 nmi north-northeast of the center…but SFMR and dropsonde data indicate that the surface winds in that area were only around 65 kt.  In fact…there has been nothing at the surface recently that quite supports the current 85 kt advisory intensity.”

That translates as weird – it should be a Category 3 or 4 with a central pressure like that. The eye is only 10 miles across, but the tropical storm wind field is now larger than Katrina and there appears to be a secondary eye.  The 103 kt winds at the top is in the middle of Category 3, but the 65 kt surface winds are a minimal Category 1.

They are speculating that the slow speed could also be causing some up welling and bringing up cooler water to the surface.  It’s just weird.  This thing could suddenly become a Category 4, or just stay a Category 2 on the surface.