The War Against Sheep Smuggling
The first US attack in Syria was in June of 2003, and the excuse was “rock solid intelligence” that Saddam and his sons were escaping to Syria.
This time it was a senior member of al Qaeda in Iraq cleverly disguised as a few construction workers and a family.
There are no Syrian troops in the area because they don’t want to die protecting sheep smugglers from attacks by the US military, as has happened in the past.
If sealing the border to prevent the Syrians from coming into Iraq to sell sheep at huge profits is so important, why doesn’t the US or Iraqi government seal the border? Trust me, you can seal a border from either side and the US and Iraq have a lot more troops than the Syrians. Invading a neighboring country and killing people is considered a major “no-no” in international law.
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Yes. Saw this on our news last night, with video footage. The press is not amused about it here, neither is anyone else. our (sizable) Muslim community is putting significant pressure on the Fed’s to apply some kind of sanctions on the US and lodge an official complaint to the UN (like that will make any difference). Also pull all our remaining troops and all civilians out of Iraq/Afghanistan. *shrug* will be interesting to see what Rudd does about it. He’s under a lot of pressure over this (and other things). I’m hoping Rudd will petition the World Court at the least. whether he will… *shrug*
The World is rapidly loosing patience with the US Cowboy stupidity. The next time, there will be a serious reaction.
There is a fairly detailed analysis in Asia Times:
US raid in Syria spooks Iran
Whatever the reasons, the negatives will outweigh any potential positives by a great majority. As usual, it what stupid, narrow-minded, short-sighted and ignorant. So… what’s new?
This is an example of a serious breakdown in the “kill chain”. Approval for this kind of action should have come from very, very high up in the chain of command. Someone is not following the chain of command.
We don’t have enough problems with Iraq and Afghanistan and multi-fronted hostilitues that we need two more fronts to worry about?
I my day crossing borders required a conversation with a gravelly voiced guy with a heavy German accent who worked in a large white building. Not getting permission could end up with an extended “tour” in at an Army facility in Kansas – Fort Leavenworth.
The US has been suckered so many times by “local sources” that you would think they would know better than to trust the information.
At least you establish surveillance and wait for them in Iraq. It’s not like we can’t monitor specific sites in the area, especially that close to the border. What kind of a mess would we have if they had taken out the chopper with the troops inside of Syria?
Doing crap like this, this close to an election is insane.
Here’s the report on our ABC.
Syria denies US raid targeted al-Qaeda leader
Curiously, even the puppet Iraq government denounced the attack. 😉 But then… even they realize the US presence there can’t last, and Syria will always be next door. LOL Nothing like enlightened self-interest! 😉
I don’t doubt that there are fighters coming through Syria and Lebanon, but I would wager that the largest group are coming through Saudi Arabia. The Saudis aren’t going to let the Shi’ia in Iraq crush Sunnis, while the Alawi who control Syria, couldn’t care less about what happens to Sunnis.
Syria would want a calm Iraq to stop the flow of refugees and they have enough problems with Lebanon and Israel not to want any more excitement. If the US would stop killing Syrian border guards things might get better.
Actually, the Syrian Army is bigger than the U.S. Army and Iraqi Army combined and they certainly could seal the border more easily than the Iraqis/US. But the deal is, they’re armed with AK-47’s and RPG’s (none of their tanks or fighter jets work due to lack of maintenance) and aren’t interested in getting blown to smithereens by U.S. air power and armor. Besides, the Syrian economy is in dire straits because of all the Iraqi refugees clogging the place. They need the money that all those sheep smugglers (and smugglers of more nasty things) are bringing in…
– Badtux the Geopolitics Penguin
On paper the “mobilized” Syrian armed forces number 400K, but Assad would have to pay them is they did anything and he has no money.
I would assume that there are a number of Syrian officials who make a comfortable living not seeing the smuggling, and have done for generations.
The Syrians didn’t get anything for playing nice after 9-11, so I doubt they are interested in doing anything now. Assad doesn’t have a lot of political capital and burned off some in the assistance Syria gave early on. I don’t think he is willing to use any more to “help” the US, he has enough problems as a result of the total screw-up in Lebanon, and the Israeli attacks. I assume the Baathists are keeping the trusted troops close to where they live.
I wouldn’t want to wander around the desert in eastern Syria with an AK strapped on my back with Predators overhead. Most draftees aren’t suicidal, and the bulk of Syrian ground troops are almost all fulfilling their national service, not volunteering to defend the Assad family and Baathist Party.
A few well placed “gifts” early on would have “nipped this problem in the bud.”
A few well placed “gifts” early on would have “nipped this problem in the bud.”
would’ve been a heckuva lot cheaper if we’d done the whole war that way, just paid them all some money, instead of shooting at them.
i forget which republican[s] said it, even before 2000 iirc, but syria, iraq, iran, coupla african countries [don’t remember which ones right off the top of my head], north korea may have been on the list, needed to have democracy brought to them.
A few nice words, without any “gifts” and we wouldn’t be having problems with Iran. They made the effort and got nothing in return. The Hedgemony just doesn’t understand the concept of the “carrot”. They have the “stick” down pat, but the “carrot” part eludes them.
You don’t expect to make friends in that area of the world, the object is not to make unnecessary enemies. Neutrality would have worked wonders and been a hell of lot cheaper than proving you have a “stick”.
Fear and hatred – it’s all the Hedgemony knows.
Amen to that! But it’s far from the first time. I doubt It’ll be the last. *shrug*
well, i’m convinced it was all about oil, either grabbing it all for ourselves, or failing that, gumming up the works enough to keep china/india/russia/whoever from getting any of it.
personally, i would rather we had spent the past 30 years working on non-oil, non-coal, non-nuclear alt-energy sources myself. that would have allowed us to stay neural and still have our a/c. and cars.
For sure, oil was a big part of it. 🙂 But it was also aimed at having a power base in the Mid-East that would be in a position to control much of a vital area of the ME, and to be able to quickly and easily support their bestest buds in Israel in whatever foolishness Israel decided upon. They would also have been in an excellent position to be very disruptive to Iran and other oil producers, and help Saudi Arabia consolidate their power. Unfortunately for the USA, it was doomed to failure always because you have shortsighted, ignorant, neo-con kindergarten dropouts in charge of (what I will laughingly refer to as) *planning*. LOL If you look at a map of the ME, you can see that Iraq is a vital strong point. 🙂
OT (kinda): I was highly amused and did laugh gleefully at our evening news when they were happily (and I mean *all* of the channels) displaying a video created by Ron Howard in support of Obama! It was wonderful to see Opie, Andy Griffith, Ritchie and The Fonz! Even the anchors had smiles and made happy comments. LOL If you haven’t seen it, you really should! Here’s a couple links:
UK Telegraph:
Happy Days return as the Fonz and Richie Cunningham are reunited
Politicususa:
Ron Howard’s Pro Obama Video Epic
Enjoy! I sure did! LOL
Ohhhhhh… I want to see the talkin heads explode over this!!! If there is ANY justice in this World… make it so! Please! LOL
Hmmmm. I should have put a link to the original Vid also. It was created by funny or DIE, here:
Ron Howard’s Call To Action
Cheers! 😀
Of course it is about oil. No one in a Federal office would even know the names of the nations in that area of world without oil. Look at the total lack of concern and knowledge reflected in the drawing of borders after the break-up of the Ottoman Empire, which the root cause of a lot of the problems in the area.
The Soviet Union did it on purpose to keep these groups fighting with each other instead of the central government when they drew lines in central Asia.
The Hedgemony could have accomplished control with diplomacy if they had any area experts who spoke the local languages and knew how to negotiate deals. It could have been a profit center instead of a money pit. The main problem is that you would have to approach the idea by looking at what was in the US interest, rather than what the oil companies and Israel wanted. Unfortunately it has been a while since anyone with power has understood that what is good for the US is not necessarily good for the oil business and the insanity that is Likud.
Yup! But Bryan… we are not being fair really. I mean… We both have learned about tactical thinking and strategic planning and logistics (at least, judging from all you’ve written and reading between lines, I assume you have. You are certainly at least knowledgeable about the subjects.) The only things these morons in charge have learned is the logistics, tactics and strategy of a Golf Course (OK… maybe not even that!) 🙂 Since the ’91 Gulf war, any of the real military planners that were left have been sidelined and forced to keep silent. All the current bunch are political appointees who only care about getting that next star, and you don’t get that by disagreeing with the people who hand them out. *shrug* The whole Iraq/Afghanistan war was orchestrated by Rummy & Chaney. The outcome was entirely predictable (and was predicted by many). Anyone who has any concept of strategy, tactics & logistics KNEW in the first few months, when all the reports of weapons depot’s being emptied, tons of money and valuables and treasures going missing daily, that the war was in deep trouble. Now the *enemy* had a lot of black market funds, and a large cache of weapons. The *insurgency* was a foregone conclusion. Add to that the fact that the remaining Iraqi ships and aircraft were allowed to escape… *sigh* Bugs Bunny would have planned things much better. Hell, even Daffy Duck would have!
“Stupid is as stupid does”(tm) 😉
One other thing… When I was blogging about all this from 2004-06, I said that I suspected that whoever were in charge of the insurgency would play a game of attrition, and they have. A major blunder by the US was in not realizing that the Arab people think in terms of decades and generations. The US is well known to have the patience of a virgin guy on his 21st birthday at a hookers convention! LOL It was a war of attrition, and they have won. The US troops are exhausted, there are no real reserves. They played it just right… They kept the pressure on constantly and jabbed now and then to keep the US troops in a constant state of high alert. Every military (except the US apparently) knows that it’s always better to wound rather than kill. A wounded soldier requires people to look after them and wears everyone around them down. A dead soldier, on the other hand, can help strengthen resolve and make the rest tougher. But, you have to show there are lethal consequences to keep the mental pressure high. Iraq has done an almost textbook job of it, as did the VietCong. I sometimes wonder if the Iraqi insurgents have some Russian (or other) advisers. 😉
The two biggest mistakes the US made was foolish arrogance and overconfidence, and allowing the insurgents to dictate the terms for several years. Time is on their side, and they know it. The US should also remember… these people NEVER forget, and rarely forgive. 🙂 One day… maybe even generations from now, there will be a reckoning. They will remember long after the US has forgotten (and I don’t just mean in 6 Months either). 🙂
Even police officers, despite what you see on TV and in the movies, know better than to leave functioning weapons unguarded during a fire fight. You don’t ignore things that could kill you. Leaving those dumps unguarded was stupidity of the first order. If you aren’t going to guard them, you blow them up. It makes no military sense to bomb water treatment plants and ignore ammo dumps.
You never allow looting. That is never acceptable. You either maintain control from start to finish, or you will never truly gain control. That’s what the bulk of the 250-400K troops that Shinseki talked about were going to be doing – controlling the areas that the spearhead was taking and protecting the supply and communications lines. You don’t have supply convoys moving through hostile territory without a combat escort, that’s insanity.
The Rumsfeld plan can win battles, but it can’t win a war. The lack of sufficient troops to control the country always ends up the same way – a guerrilla war. If you fight the conventional war properly, in accordance to the rules, you don’t have to learn counter insurgency tactics.
All of this emphasis on counter insurgency in the US military means they don’t intend to or have forgotten how to fight a war properly.
They had plenty of time to do this thing right, but they didn’t do it. They had the time to train the people they needed, and a call for volunteers after 9-11 would have given them the people, but they screwed up one opportunity after another.
They didn’t do one damn thing right. This is a text book case of what not to do.
Fortunately for the rest of the world, they have so weakened the US military that it won’t be a threat to anyone else for quite some time. If the economy wasn’t in such bad shape, I doubt they could maintain the current manning levels. When the economy picks up, the military will be at the bottom of the list of employers, even after we withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan.
We were writing at the same time.
Most people don’t understand that military ball ammo is worthless for hunting precisely because it was designed to wound. You can easily leave the dead behind, but you had better take the wounded with you if you want to maintain unit cohesion.
These idiots don’t know the importance of prisoners or how to gather intelligence, so they have forgotten all of the vital lessons that have been painfully gathered over too many wars.
If you wound them and capture them, you can turn them. They have an excuse to explain why they talked, and their honor doesn’t suffer. They will claim they were drugged in the hospital, but the only drugs I ever used were nicotine and caffeine. In tough cases I might use chocolate, but those were few, indeed. It takes time, but it works, and you get the truth. These guys don’t even have the sense not to ask leading questions that contain the answer you want. The point is to get them talking and they will eventually tell you everything they know, as well as what they believe. You have to be perceptive enough to know the difference.
The whole upper leadership of the military needs to be replaced. Four stars is almost a badge of incompetence these days. Almost the only way you get there is through becoming a political suck-up, and you give up your standing with the troops.