Posts from — October 2008

I just received my sample ballot and these are the choices for President:

John McCain and Sarah Palin, Republican
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrat
Gloria La Riva and Eugene Puryear, Party for Socialism and Liberation – Florida
Chuck Baldwin and Darrell Castle, Constitution Party of Florida
Gene Amondson and Leroy Pletten, Prohibition Party
Bob Barr and Wayne A. Root, Libertarian
Thomas Robert Stevens and Alden Link, Objectivist Party
James Harris and Alyson Kennedy, Florida Socialist Workers Party
Cynthia McKinney and Rosa Clemente, Green Party
Alan Keyes and Brian Rohrbough, America’s Independent Party
Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez , Ecology Party of Florida
Brian Moore and Stewart Alexander, Socialist Party of Florida
Charles Jay and John Wayne Smith, Boston Tea Party/Personal Choice Party
plus space for a Write-In.

If you don’t have money in the market it was amusing to watch what Wall Street has been doing. The panic was announced, and they panicked. The abysmal Paulson Plan was rejected and they panicked. The not quite as abysmal plan was passed, and they panicked. The Brown Plan was finally adopted and the “irrational exuberance” took off. The reality that the Plan steadied the credit markets, but everyone was already in a recession, took hold and it was back to panic.

If you were paying reasonable attention to the real world, the credit crisis was totally predictable years ago. The recession has been unavoidable since last year. If you look at the real numbers that were used in the last century, the US has been in a recession since the late Fall of last year.

Robert Peston makes a couple of important points in his post, Spend, Spend, Spend:

But they’ve been powerless to prevent the banks contracting the amount of credit they’re providing, which has reduced the ability of companies and individuals to invest and spend, and risks turning an economic slowdown into something rather worse.

[Read more →]

Position: 23.8 N 58.1 W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northeast [040°] near 25 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph [110 kph].
Wind Gusts: 85 mph.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 145 miles [230 km].
Minimum central pressure: 987 mb ↑.

It is 505 miles [810 km] Northeast of the Leeward Islands. The center of the storm went through the Anegada Passage between the Virgin Islands and St. Maarten. It is rapidly weakening, dropping 3 categories since this morning.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Yes, another al Qaeda Number 2 has been eliminated. This one was called Abu Qaswarah and was a Moroccan Swede who trained in Afghanistan before setting up operations in Iraq. He is on everyone’s terrorist list which means he probably wasn’t required to take off his shoes or hand in his pudding when he traveled, as those indignities are reserved for law-abiding citizens.

Again we are told that this will be a real blow to al Qaeda, except it never is.

What you don’t want to see on a letter from your broker.

While not official until certified, here are the results of yesterday’s Canadian election:

Conservatives: 143 [+16]
Liberals: 76 [-19]
Bloc Québécois: 50 [+2]
NDP: 37 [+7]
Greens: 0 [-1]
Independents: 2 [-1]

Harper didn’t win the majority of 155, but he has a stronger hand.

It was, for Canada, a low turnout election, with only 59% participation. These results will almost guarantee a challenge to Mr. Dion for leadership of the Liberal Party in December. Given the current economic conditions, it is unlikely that this government will last beyond a year or two, barring a major turn around.

Position: 17.4 N 64.5 W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Northeast [050°] near 20 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 115 mph [185 kph].
Wind Gusts: 140 mph.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 115 miles [185 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 35 miles [55 km].
Minimum central pressure: 967 mb ↓.

It is 30 miles [45 km] Southwest of St. Croix and 105 miles [165 km] West-Southwest of St. Martin/Maarten.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra, St. Martin/Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, the British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts, and Nevis by their respective governments.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Montserrat.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for Puerto Rico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Guadeloupe.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 15.3 N 85.9 W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West [260°] near 7 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph [45 kph].
Wind Gusts: 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure: 1006 mb.

It is 40 miles [65 km] South-Southwest of Limon, Honduras. The center of the storm is inland and has lost its tropical characteristics in the mountains.

This is the final advisory.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

McClatchy tells us why the market lost its early momentum today: U.S. takes stake in banks; stocks soar, then fall back

WASHINGTON — President Bush on Tuesday took the wraps off a historic and reworked financial-rescue plan, confirming that the United States will take equity stakes in nine banks, backstop virtually all non-interest-bearing bank accounts and guarantee most new loans between banks.

The White House plan marks the first such deep government intervention in markets since the Great Depression. Bush noted that he didn’t take the aggressive and unusual steps lightly, stressing that “these measures are not intended to take over the free market, but to preserve it.”

Every time he talks about the economy, people are reminded he is still in the White House, and the market tanks. They should just give the message to Barney and let him take it to the press room. It would be a better photo op, and people wouldn’t be reminded of the current administration.

Update at 9:30pm [CDT] it looks like another Conservative government with the Tories taking seats from the Liberals, but not enough for a majority [155].

Update at 11:30pm [CDT] :

Conservatives: 143 [+16]
Liberals: 77 [-18]
Bloc Québécois: 49 [+1]
NDP: 37 [+7]
Greens: 0 [-1]
Independents: 2 [-1]

Today is election day in Canada and the polling starting early this morning in Newfoundland, but nothing will be reported until the last polls close on the Pacific Coast at 7pm PDT [9pm CDT].

It is expected that the Conservatives will again be given the opportunity to form a minority government.

[Read more →]

Position: 16.2 N 83.8 W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West-Northwest [285°] near 6 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph [55 kph].
Wind Gusts: 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure: 1005 mb ↑.

It is 90 miles [150 km] North-Northwest of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from the border between Honduras and Nicaragua westward to Limon and a tropical storm watch from west of Limon westward to the Guatemala border.

At 800 PM EDT…0000z…the government of Belize has issued a tropical storm watch from Belize City southward to the Guatemala border.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 14.3 N 68.1 W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Northeast [050°] near 6 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph [120 kph].
Wind Gusts: 85 mph.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 90 miles [150 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 15 miles [30 km].
Minimum central pressure: 979 mb ↓.

It is 315 miles [505 km] South-Southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

At 11 PM AST [0300 UTC] a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and the islands of Vieques and Culebra; a Hurricane Warning has been issued for St. Martin/Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, the British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts, and Nevis by their respective governments.

At 11 PM AST the government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Montserrat.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for Puerto Rico. A Hurricane Warning could be required for Puerto Rico Wednesday morning.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

I’ve noticed that some are wondering why Warren Buffett and UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown back buying preferred stock [preference shares, in the UK] rather than common stock which has voting privileges.  Safety is the primary reason, as the “preferred” refers to the order of pay out of any profits.  Holders of preferred stock have the first call on assets, while the common stock is last in the queque to get paid.  In addition, the holders of common stock, with their voting privileges, are part of the problem.

By buying preferred stock, usually with warrants for common stock at a set price as part of the deal, the companies get the capital they need to continue in business, but it comes not just with strings, but chains attached – the holders of the preferred stock get paid first, so management had better toe the line and generate real profits, not just mess around to make the stock price higher.

A huge part of the part of the problem are the “paper profits”, actions that make the company look profitable, when in fact they aren’t.  The increases are accounting tricks, not real capital movement.  A lot of the money that is being “lost” never really existed outside of “creative” sets of accounting ledgers.  People were buying stock at heavily inflated prices, not knowing that the real value of the companies hadn’t actually increased.

The BBC reports Krugman wins Nobel for economics

American academic Paul Krugman has won this year’s Nobel economics prize, it has been announced.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said the award recognised his analysis of trade patterns and where economic activity takes place.

It said Prof Krugman, 55, who teaches at Princeton University, had formulated new theories that answered questions about free trade and globalisation.

You think they might listen to him now?  Of course not, he doesn’t agree with their prejudices.

What will he invest the $1.4 million in?

Congratulations, Dr. Krugman.