Posts from — August 2011

A lot of people, including Duncan have been hearing complaints that Irene was over-hyped, apparently because there weren’t bodies in the streets of Manhattan, or some such silliness. As McClatchy pointed out: Irene wasn’t overhyped for rural areas on East Coast.

Dr. Masters demonstrates that the track forecast was extremely accurate, which saves a great deal of money. Not that long ago Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina would have had to expend money and effort on a storm that didn’t come.

The current weakness in the forecasting is the intensity forecast. I mentioned it in my posts, that the central pressure just didn’t correspond with the windspeed. Tropical storms don’t have pressures in the 950s, they should be in the higher 990s.

What happened to Irene was the eye wall replacement cycle that occurred while it was still the Bahamas. It pulled in dry air, and that should have really weakened it, as it left the eye wall with a gap in it. That didn’t happen, and there doesn’t seem to be a firm answer as to why. Perhaps massive storms operate under different rules than normal tropical storms, but there isn’t enough data to know that. Irene seemed to operate on sheer inertia after that point. It didn’t intensify, but it took forever to finally begin to spin down.

The reality is, if Irene had shifted 40 miles to the West at landfall in New York, the effect on the city would have been much worse. NYC received the ‘nice’ eastern side of the storm.

It takes time to move people in a semi-orderly fashion, and when you are talking about hundreds of thousands, or millions in the case of NYC, you can’t wait until the last minute. The tropical warnings used to be issued 24 hours before possible landfall, but they have been extended to 36 hours to give people more time to prepare.

The storm’s name will probably be retired as it will rank in the top dozen of tropical storms for damage, and there have been around 4 dozen deaths attributed to the storm. The vast majority of the damage, as with all tropical storms, will be the result of flooding, not the winds. As Dr. Masters noted: Irene’s 1-in-100 year rains trigger deadly flooding. Irene will enter the records of states for the most rain in a 24 hour period, and the highest crest on multiple rivers and streams.

Position: 15.0N 44.4W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West-Northwest [285°] near 20 mph [32 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph [120 kph].
Wind Gusts: 90 mph [150 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 125 miles [205 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 25 miles [ 35 km].
Minimum central pressure: 987 mb ↓.

Currently about 1165 miles [1875 km] East of the Leeward Islands.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Hurricane Irene is the tenth weather related event this year that has done more than a billion dollars in damage, the most billion dollar disasters ever. The situation is made worse by Republicans cutting funding for the Weather Service resources need to maintain our current level of forecast capability, and their generally anti-science attitude.

Congress cut funding for FEMA, and now members are angry that the money isn’t available, as McClatchy reports: Missouri Senators angry that FEMA cutbacks affect Joplin tornado repairs

One of the first jobs facing Congress when it returns to work will be finding billions of dollars to pay for damage caused by a summer of natural disasters stretching from Joplin to the Jersey Shore.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is suspending payments for some projects in tornado-ravaged Joplin because of immediate disaster needs along the East Coast after Hurricane Irene. Some spending for other storm-related and flood-related damage in other parts of the country also has been delayed.

A FEMA spokesman said Monday that the agency’s disaster fund has dipped well below $1 billion.

The Republican Majority Leader in the House has said that there will be no disaster money unless there are cuts somewhere else. How about the Congressional payroll, health care, and pension funding?

Position: 13.3N 37.5W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West-Northwest [285°] near 22 mph [35 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph [ 95 kph].
Wind Gusts: 70 mph [110 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 85 miles [140 km].
Minimum central pressure: 997 mb.

Currently about 885 miles [1425 km] West of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

As forecast Tropical Depression Twelve has become a Tropical Storm, and the intensity forecasts say it should become another major hurricane. Currently the models track North of the Antilles, but where it goes from there becomes more of a guess than a forecast.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

It wasn’t the storm, it was the levees.

It wasn’t Nature, it was man.

The Weather Underground’s Hurricane Katrina tracking map.

An animation of the National Hurricane Center’s tracking maps. If you stop the animation and step to frame 13 you will see that they had Katrina coming to my house for a while.

The track on Google map from the Central Florida Hurricane Center so you can see exactly where the storm struck, and it wasn’t New Orleans.

Katrina did have top sustained winds of 175 mph with a pressure of 902 millibars, a Category 5 storm, but that was in the central Gulf of Mexico. It came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane to the East of New Orleans. There was minimal wind damage in the city from the hurricane.

Wikipedia has a nice article on Katrina, without going totally technical on the science behind hurricanes.

Position: 11.0N 30.0W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West-Northwest [290°] near 15 mph [24 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph [ 55 kph].
Wind Gusts: 45 mph [ 70 kph].
Minimum central pressure: 1008 mb.

Currently about 460 miles [740 km] Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

As Jose exists only as a low in the North Atlantic, the post-tropical remnants of Irene are dumping rain on Northeastern Canada. It is the start of the busy part of the hurricane season, and it looks like we will get to Alpha, Beta, etc. again this year. This is the same list of names that was used in 2005, with substitutions for the major storms, i.e. this storm will become Katia, not Katrina.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Jim McKay at archy had a birthday on Thursday, and I failed to mention it. After a certain point if someone mentions their birthday you should acknowledge it.

Apparently riding the ‘Tour de Rook’ isn’t enough pain, so Rook is going to update the Movable Type software again. He remembers things going smoothly, while I remember my account being lost and then his blog roll evaporating. YMMV.

Rook asked a question “What makes him so important?”, dealing directly with David Brooks, but it applies to most of the people on major Op-Ed pages. What exactly have these people done in their lives that makes them worth reading? Have their ‘prophesies’ turned out to be true or not? Brooks is supposed to be a conservative, but the only thing he seems to want to conserve is his personal paycheck as a pundit.

Most of the East Coast bloggers have checked in, but there are millions without power, so you have to wait.

For the people who weren’t impressed with the amount of damage that Irene did, let me just say – that was the preliminary event. The main event is fighting with your insurance company to get the coverage that you have been paying for.

Position: 35.0N 65.5W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North [010°] near 21 mph [33 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph [ 65 kph].
Wind Gusts: 50 mph [ 85 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 45 miles [ 75 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1008 mb ↑.

Currently about 190 miles [305 km] North-Northwest of Bermuda.

All Watches and Warnings have been discontinued. The storm is weakening over cooler water and wind shear generated by Irene. It is expected to become a post-tropical low by Tuesday.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 45.3N 71.3W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northeast [025°] near 26 mph [43 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph [ 85 kph].
Wind Gusts: 60 mph [ 95 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 320 miles [520 km].
Minimum central pressure: 980 mb ↑.

Landfall at 8AM CDT in New York City, downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

Currently about 50 miles [ 80 km] North of Berlin, New Hampshire.

Irene transitioned into a Post-Tropical Storm near the US / Canadian border, and this is the final advisory on the storm.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of New Brunswick from the US border northeastward to Fort Lawrence and the South Coast of Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Porters Lake.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 37.3N 75.4W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northeast [020°] near 16 mph [26 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph [130 kph].
Wind Gusts: 100 mph [160 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 240 miles [390 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 125 miles [205 km].
Minimum central pressure: 954 mb ↑.

Currently about 70 miles [115 km] South-Southwest of Ocean City, Maryland and 255 miles [415 km] South-Southwest of New York City.

The eye made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC at 6:30AM CDT.

The central pressure for Irene is mid-range for a Category 3 hurricane. The wind speed reflects the size of the storm, the air mass that the storm is moving. This storm, with its consistent direction and slow speed is building a massive ‘wake’ or storm surge. That is what is going to do the damage. It was Katrina’s storm surge that wiped Waveland, Mississippi off the map, not the wind.

Update: The pressure has finally started to go up, which is better news. So far there are 9 deaths associated with the storm and over a million people without power.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast from Surf City, North Carolina north to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast from Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point northward and the tidal Potomac; north of Sagamore Beach, MA to Eastport, Maine; from the US border northeastward to Fort Lawrence; and the South Coast of Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Porters Lake.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Tropical Depression Ten is still around, but not doing anything interesting.

The BBC reports that Nick Helm has won an award for the best joke of the Edinburgh Fringe: “I needed a password eight characters long so I picked Snow White and the Seven Dwarves.”

Actually, his Dad wrote the joke and sent it to him.

The outer bands from Irene are already hitting South Carolina. It is going to be a long, nervous weekend on the Atlantic coast.

Update: I wanted to comment on the picture that Rick Perry is using in his campaign literature. It shows him standing on a ladder on the side of an aircraft. That is a bit disingenuous for people who don’t know much about the Air Force.

The picture is a standard thing for student pilots in the Air Force. The aircraft is a T-38 Talon training aircraft [if you look closely you will see the second canopy that is raised.] Perry actually flew C-130 Hercules cargo aircraft, and if he was competent he would have been the pilot for the last two years of his tour. There is nothing wrong with being a flying truck driver, cargo aircraft are vital to the mission of the US military, but the fact that he chooses to use a training photo, instead of a photo with the aircraft he actually commanded, would indicate that he doesn’t want people to know what he really did.

Perry attend Texas A&M, a land-grant school, and apparently had the Air Force pick up the tab, which is why he committed to a six-tour enlistment. He did nothing with the training and experience he received in the military, so claiming that it makes him more competent than Zero, is silly. The Shrubbery was an Air National Guard fighter pilot and he let Osama bin Laden jerk him around for seven years. Perry needs to move on and forget about claiming to be strong on ‘national defense’, because the Shrubbery pretty much destroyed that Repub talking point.

Position: 32.6N 76.9W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northeast [020°] near 13 mph [20 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 100 mph [155 kph].
Wind Gusts: 130 mph [210 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 290 miles [465 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 90 miles [150 km].
Minimum central pressure: 951 mb ↑.

Currently about 195 miles [ 315 km] South-Southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC and 140 miles [225 km] South of Cape Lookout, NC.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast from Little River Inlet, North Carolina north to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet, North Carolina; Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point northward and the tidal Potomac; and north of Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River, Massachusetts.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Merrimack River, Massachusetts to Eastport, Maine.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Success?

Big deal!

[Editor: This picure of Froggy is the first from the new machine. While Froggy is more interested in something more to eat, everything except the camera is new/different in the process of getting it posted.]

Friday Ark

Susie Madrak woke up early this morning to the symptoms of a heart attack. Immediately after calling 911 she wrote a blog entry.

According to a later posting by Chris Baldwin, she is being kept for observation, but hospitals don’t release any real information.

Update: Susie is home, but has to prepare for Irene, so she won’t comment until later.