Posts from — October 2013

Mike Konczal looks at What are Conservative Experts Saying About Breaking Through the Debt Ceiling? He starts by talking about one of the biggest problems we have in getting at the truth:

…I have the same feelings about engaging in a debate over whether or not breaching the debt ceiling matters. I don’t want it to become a debate that people have, because it will get coded as yet another partisan thing pundits fight about, and thus reduce the seriousness with which we should regard the situation. That, in turn, could make a default even more likely. This is a problem we face because of the he-said/she-said coverage of political topics in most U.S. media.

Both the Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation parrot the party line about no default because the Treasury just has to ‘prioritize payments’, and if it doesn’t happen it’s Obama’s fault.

But not everyone was willing to go along: “Bucking the trend, the American Enterprise Institute put me in touch with Michael Strain. What happens if we go through the debt ceiling? ‘First thing I’d say is that nobody really knows, and that’s the scary thing,’ he told me.”

As if on cue, John Ydstie of NPR creates: In A Debt Crisis, U.S. May Have To Decide Payment Priorities

House Speaker John Boehner defended the idea on Bloomberg TV. “I think doing a debt-prioritization bill makes it clear to our bondholders that we’re going to meet our obligations,” he said.

When asked if that means paying China before U.S. troops, Boehner said it’s no different than “in any other court proceeding.”

“The bondholders usually get paid first,” he said. “Same thing here.”

Since I’m not the media, I will add some context to Mr. Boehner’s claim about ‘court proceeding’. The only court proceeding where this takes place is so special that it has its own law, and its own court. That proceeding is bankruptcy. Mr. Boehner want to bankrupt the US government and doesn’t think there will be a problem as long as no one says the word or goes to court.

Mr. Ydstie then interviews Mark Patterson, the chief of staff at the U.S. Treasury from 2009 to last May, who says you can’t do it with the current system in place at the Treasury.

The Treasury has an automated Accounts Payable system that makes payments when bills are due. When the system can’t make the payment because of insufficient funds, it stops processing until the funds are available.

I’m not sure how the government shutdown has affected the Treasury Department staffing, but they have already had to stop processing payments to functions that are not currently funded.

The other little problem is that no one can state unequivocally that it is legal to prioritize payments.

The Trillion Dollar Platinum Coin is legal and Constitutional. Just do it, and stop screwing around with the full faith and credit of the United States.

Marcy Wheeler notes that the Utah server farm is not doing well.

This is nothing new. There are all kinds of server farms created across the world every year, so this isn’t experimental. It needs a lot of power so the utility is going to be dedicating major high voltage lines to feed a small electrical substation to provide power to the building. Because they will be powering a lot of electronics, that substation is a good place to filter and stabilize the power before it is fed into the service entrances and circuit breaker panels.

This isn’t small, fiddly work – it’s industrial electrical construction. They are pulling a lot of wire through conduit, but it is color coded and numbered wire, most of it 10 gauge or larger for the long runs. Having blow outs that cost $100K means bad equipment or incompetent staff.

The technology involved has been basically the same for decades. Unfortunately, the ability of the most straight-forward of government contracts to fall victim to rip-offs and cost overruns has been like this even longer.

You should see the xkcd cartoon today, as it functions on multiple levels.

Then drop by Charlie Pierce’s and read Mark Warren’s interview with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

A lot of people thought the Democrats had given up the store again by starting negotiations for funding at the Sequester level because we didn’t know that the Continuing Resolution was the result of negotiations between Harry Reid and John Boehner. This is what Boehner said he needed to get it through the House, but he obviously can’t get it through.

The take-away is that it is pointless to negotiate with Boehner, because he can’t deliver. Apparently the Speaker of the House is nothing more than the public spokesman for the cluster of people who have decided they will call themselves Republicans. There is no order, no common purpose, and no unit cohesion – it is just a mob.

The storm never happened. This morning it admitted defeat and became a remnant low off the coast of Louisiana – pulled apart by Winter Storm Atlas, which has spread misery and destruction across the US.

The cold front associated with that storm is dumping rain on us locally, and its passing might mean switching from air conditioning to heat. I’ll wait to see.

Cruz the Confused and Incomprehensible was on the Sunday talk show circuit proclaiming that the shut down of the government must be followed by defaulting on the National debt [violating the Constitution and common sense] to attack Obamacare. [What we really need in this country is a cure for electoral dysfunction…]

After a lot of parsing and legal opinions, the Department of Defense is recalling most of its civilian work force. My Mother will be happy that the Commissary will reopen, and the troops will be happy that they will be able to receive the promised pay. Among those who got laid off were the people who actually prepare and disburse the payroll – a small oversight on behalf of Congress.

Of course the suppliers who deal with government contracts and their supply chains are totally screwed up because of the interruption. The super-efficient ‘just-in-time’ inventory control systems don’t react well when major customers suddenly stop buying. This is going to end up costing a lot of businesses a great deal of money. I would guess that the government shut down will increase the deficit – the amount dependent on how long it continues. Large enterprises take a long time to restart after an interruption.

What in Hell is going on? Seriously, even for Congress this past week reads like a bad fantasy novella with Ted Cruz slated to play Conan the Confused and Incomprehensible.

To recap: Ted Cruz urged the ‘not ready for pre-school’ caucus in the Republican Party in the House to shut down the government, which they did. Then, having shut down the government, the NRPS members staged photo ops where they complain that someone had shut down the government. This was followed by their agreement to pay all of the laid off Federal workers for the time they were laid off?!

Charlie Pierce, among many others, featured this explanatory quote by Marlin Stutzman (R-IN): “We aren’t going to be disrespected…We have to get something out of this. And I don’t know what that even is.”

If you don’t know what it is, how will you know if you get it or if you actually want it? Look at the polls, Marlin, if you want respect, you don’t run for Congress.

Badtux highlighted another NRPS member, Representative Renee Ellmers (R-NC), who thinks she needs her Congressional paycheck, but the Capitol Police don’t deserve theirs. She apparently believes that people who don’t do their job and pass a budget are more worthy of pay then those who put their lives on the line to protect Congresscritters.

As CNN notes, an unpaid employee at a National Weather Service office in Alaska sent people a message. For those who don’t know, that was a ‘discussion’ message, not a forecast. Discussion messages are usually only looked at by professionals, and not broadcast like forecasts.

Neil Macdonald of the CBC has another spot on piece: U.S. government shutdown stokes Republican party civil war.

For those who think I’m getting carried away by referring the House caucus as ‘not ready for pre-school’, note that I’m not the one who used Green Eggs and Ham to explain their position…

Position: 28.1N 91.9W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Stationary.
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph [ 55 kph].
Wind Gusts: 45 mph [ 70 kph].
Minimum central pressure: 1008 mb ↑.

Currently about 185 miles [ 295 km] West-Southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

A jog to the West and then it stalled this afternoon. The tracking is dependent on the interaction between the storm and the cold front that is moving through.

At 10PM CDT the storm was downgraded to a depression and all watches and warnings were cancelled. Dry air infiltration and wind shear are preventing any development.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

The CBC does research: Digital piracy not harming entertainment industries: study

A new study by researchers at the London School of Economics suggests the music and movie industries have been exaggerating the impact digital file sharing has had on their bottom line and found that for some creative industries, copyright infringement might actually be helping boost revenues.

Researchers within the British university’s media department examined sales data and found that the music, gaming, movie and publishing industries are all growing and adopting new business models based on digital sharing.

My take on the study is that consumers didn’t want the format that the media moguls were selling, the same way people stopped buying 8-track, vinyl records, and VHS tapes. People wanted readily accessible forms of media to use on their digital equipment.

Apple developed iTunes to provide that kind of media for its devices, but the media companies refused to invest in the new formats and delivery systems. Once they made their products available in the format that the consumers wanted, they bounced back.

In the meantime they have wasted a lot of time, money, and rhetoric on something that falls below the level of shoplifting at most of the stores that sold the older media, and angered a lot of potential customers.

Tropical Storm Karen is starting to look like pretty weak tea compared to the rest of the country.

Southern California looks set for a major outbreak of Santa Ana winds that will be stronger than Karen’s and may cause or exacerbate fires.

The Northern Plains are under blizzard warnings as a cold front moves through.

The MidWest is preparing for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes ahead of that front.

Karen seems to be having issues with dry air and wind shear, so it doesn’t look like it will achieve its full potential.

All of this is tied to a massive low pressure system in the center of the US that is pulling down cold air and pushing up warm, moist air.

Have a nice weekend 😉

Position: 26.4N 90.5W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northwest [340°] near 7 mph [11 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph [ 75 kph].
Wind Gusts: 60 mph [ 95 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 140 miles [220 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1002 mb.

Currently about 205 miles [ 330 km] South-Southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The storm is being affected by dry air from the West and wind shear. The Hurricane Watch has been cancelled.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for New Orleans, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain; and the mouth of the Pearl River to Indian Pass, Florida.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Weasel Returns

Nomnomnom…

[Editor: While I have caught sight of the Weasel at night, this is the first time in weeks he has been by during the day.]

Friday Ark

I am currently on the eastern edge of the Hurricane Watch area for Tropical Storm Karen. While I don’t anticipate any major problems, it has been a while since we have had a storm up this way, and the local infrastructure has not been maintained as well as it used to be.

If I disappear for a while, don’t worry about it. I know how to handle these things, but The Phone Company is new to the experience.

Oh, we tend to discourage outside media coverage of anything, apparently believing it will be bad for tourism.

Position: 31.8N 38.7W [ 4PM CDT 2100 UTC].
Movement: East-Northeast [060°] near 14 mph [22 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph [ 55 kph].
Wind Gusts: 45 mph [ 70 kph].
Minimum central pressure: 1010 mb.

Currently about 790 miles [1270 km] West-Southwest of the Azores.

The storm has become a remnant low. This is the final advisory.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 24.2N 89.0W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northwest [335°] near 10 mph [17 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph [100 kph].
Wind Gusts: 75 mph [120 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 140 miles [220 km].
Minimum central pressure: 999 mb.

Currently about 340 miles [ 545 km] South of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Isle, Louisiana to Destin, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Louisiana from Grand Isle to Morgan City, including New Orleans, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain; and Florida from Destin to Indian Pass.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Neil Macdonald, senior Washington correspondent for CBC News, has a nice little explanation for Canadians – Analysis: The perverse math behind the Republican budget showdown.

It is always worthwhile to see how others view what the US is doing, since most US commentators can’t shed their biases and report objectively.

He also explains something that has been nagging at me since the Cruz-athon. I was about ready to call one of my brothers who are both grandfathers and more current on the oeuvre of Theodor Geisel, as to why the use of Green Eggs And Ham was problematical. That’s in depth analysis when you cover details like that [or snark, if you are a blogger].