Tropical Storm Ernesto – Day 6

Position: 17.0N 82.7W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West-Northwest [300°] near 13 mph [20 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph [105 kph].
Wind Gusts: 75 mph [120 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 125 miles [205 km].
Minimum central pressure: 994 mb ↓.

Currently about 365 miles [ 585 km] East of Belize City.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of the Yucatan from Chetumal northward to Punta Allen and the coast of Belize.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Honduras from the Honduras – Nicaragua border westward to Punta Sal, and the coast of the Yucatan from Punta Allen northward to Tulum.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Honduras from Punta Sal westward to the Honduras – Guatemala border and the coast of the Yucatan from Tulum northward to Cancun.

Ernesto may be a hurricane tomorrow, but a recon aircraft reports that he isn’t strengthening tonight. The models have come into agreement on the track which has the storm landing on the Yucatan as a hurricane and crossing into the Bay of Campeche.

This storm keeps doing strange things, so I’m not confident about much of anything related to it. It was making a run at intensifying today and then just quit. Something is being missed or misinterpreted, but I don’t see it in the data I’ve looked at [as an informed amateur]. The old rules and assumptions aren’t working like they should.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]