We’re Shrinking
The Miami Herald writes that Florida’s population declines for the first time since 1946
TALLAHASSEE — For the first time since the end of World War II, the growth state of Florida lost population, researchers say, in a sign that the economic recession is even worse than many had feared.
In all, the state lost about 58,000 people from April 2008 to April 2009, according to a new estimate from the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
The decline all but guarantees that state economists will likely revise downward state budget projections released just last week, when they forecast that Florida will receive $147 million less in taxes this budget year than they had previously anticipated.
With fewer Floridians, classrooms will likely be a little emptier than forecast. Already, the state had projected that, in the current budget year, nearly 10,000 fewer kids would be in class.
That estimate is likely to change now as well, and it could mean trouble for teachers because classroom funding is pegged to class size.
“If you have fewer students, it’s not like you can’t pay for the students, but you might have to let the teacher go,” said Amy Baker, the head of the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research.
With 400,000 empty homes on the market, Baker said, the smaller population also means there aren’t as many potential buyers.
For months, Gov. Charlie Crist has cheered glimmers of apparently good news in the state’s economy. However, the new estimates show just how badly financial conditions have deteriorated in Florida. The state has shed a record 392,800 jobs in a year, unemployment is headed toward 11 percent and one in every 154 Florida homes are in some form of foreclosure.
The population estimate also adds weight to the criticism of many economists who say Florida’s economy was a Ponzi scheme that relied on new residents.
The entire Potemkin scheme that provides funding for the state is based on the concept that growth was forever, and now it isn’t. In 2008 the Republicans got even more restrictions on the ability to tax in the state, so they problem is even worse than it would have been in 2007. The only reason the state was able to keep its head above water was growth, and that is gone too.
This is the worst case scenario for the state.
6 comments
I also understand that many parts of you are “sinking”, too….
.-= last blog ..Some terrifying thoughts =-.
You mean the sinkholes? If you build on top of former coral reefs, you have to expect that sort thing after you pump out the water that supports them.
It’s not a problem on the Panhandle.
yep, the only flat areas in central florida are the ones on the edges of sinkholes. i actually enjoyed living in an area that wasn’t flat, and all the lakes were round [or some collection of circles run together].
of course, none of my houses or apartment bldgs never disappeared while i was living in them, so there’s that. distinctly less fun when it’s your own backyard.
money-wise this is another big ouch, but secretly i’m rooting for a lot of people to leave.
.-= last blog ..Woman’s best friend’s best friend =-.
Those round lakes used to be someone’s house. It would be nice if people checked on the local geology before they start building like mad, especially when they build things like nuclear reactors.
Well, you can’t say we don’t have flat down pretty solidly on the Panhandle. And there is certainly no problems with rocky soil – just quartz sand until you get down to the red clay layer, and then more sand.
With 400k empty houses, I think the real estate market will get a lot more reasonable. Of course, a lot of those are condos that no one in their right mind would have ever bought in the first place.
Well, you can’t say we don’t have flat down pretty solidly on the Panhandle.
except that it looks like the foothills of the appalachians if you’re originally from south texas. 🙂
argh, don’t get me started on condos.
.-= last blog ..Woman’s best friend’s best friend =-.
I admit that Florida’s highest “mountain”, all 350 feet of it, is due North of me. There’s a sign so you don’t miss it.
Condo are a combination of the worse of renting and home ownership.