Posts from — August 2012

So let’s talk about whether it would be the Wrath of G*d if Hurricane Isaac smacks Tampa during the Republican National Convention.

Back on August 14^th Dr. Jeff Masters looked at the probability of Tampa getting hit, and came up with 0.2%. Looking at the current model runs for what is now Tropical Storm Isaac, I think that number is probably better than 1 in 3 at the moment.

If you read Dr Masters’s piece you will learn that it doesn’t take much of a storm to flood the location of the convention center. Any storm coming from the Southwest will push water back into Tampa Bay and they have a mess.

Parties really should take these things into consideration before scheduling large events during the late summer. The Democratic Party could face the same problem in Charlotte.

Let’s face it, if you are looking for Chris Matthews and get Jim Cantore, you have a problem.

Position: 13.8N 39.5W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West-Northwest [295°] near 17 mph [28 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph [ 55 kph].
Wind Gusts: 45 mph [ 70 kph].
Minimum central pressure: 1007 mb.

Currently about 1045 miles [1685 km] West of the Cape Verde Islands.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 15.8N 63.0W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West [270°] near 20 mph [32 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph [ 75 kph].
Wind Gusts: 55 mph [ 90 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 140 Miles [220 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1003 mb ↓.

Currently about 270 miles [ 440 km] Southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dominica, St Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Anguilla, Barbuda, Saba, St Eustatius, St Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

I assume that a lot of you are familiar with the Underpants Gnomes from the animated series South Park. They were observed stealing underpants and then questioned as to why they did it.

Well, the Gnomes had a business plan:

Phase 1: Steal the Underpants.

Phase 2: ?

Phase 3: Profit!

They didn’t know what they were going to do in Phase 2, but they started Phase 1.

Of course, this is much the same as the Republican budget plans:

Phase 1: Cut taxes for the 1%.

Phase 2: The Market does something ?

Phase 3: Prosperity!

I was reminded of this thought process when discussing the newest iteration of Total Information Awareness, TrapWire:

Phase 1: Gather as much Data as possible.

Phase 2: Have computers do something with the Data?

Phase 3: We catch all the “Terrorists”!

Well the NYPD decided to implement a smaller version with the special “Demographics Unit” created in conjunction with the CIA. Recently the head of the unit had to testify under oath about its activities in a deposition. We now know that after six years of intensive, intrusive, legally-questionable spying by NYPD “Demographics Unit” [racial profiling squad] these methods yielded: nothing, nada, zip, zero. No leads, no arrests, no warnings of attacks, no “terrorists” identified – NOTHING!

Like I’ve been saying from the start – there is no magic solution, there is no shortcut, there is only good, old-fashioned police work. You walk and you talk. Slowly, but surely, you find out what’s going on.

Instead of wasting money on this loser of a program, they could have been sending officers to classes on comparative religion or training them to speak enough of the languages involved to show the communities that they were respected. You can’t do this from a squad car, you have to walk the streets in the community so people get to know you while you get to know them. You build trust and people will talk to you.

Position: 15.6N 55.6W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West [275°] near 18 mph [30 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph [ 65 kph].
Wind Gusts: 55 mph [ 90 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 45 Miles [ 75 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1006 mb.

Currently about 390 miles [ 625 km] East of Guadeloupe.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, St Martin, St Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Anguilla, Barbuda, Saba, St Eustatius, St Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

But not as deep as the Sea of Galilee … yet.

You have to wonder what whoever organized that ‘fact-finding’ Congressional junket to Israel thought was going to happen when they let evangelicals stop near the Sea of Galilee. Of course they were going to jump in. The bragging rights on the claim to full immersion in the Sea of Galilee are just too large, with or without alcohol. That was a fundie merit badge they certainly weren’t going to pass up.

In other old news is the brouhaha over a ‘family-values’ Republican candidate making it clear he is an ignorant misogynist jerk. That is a given. Sure, most of them are more circumspect, but it is an innate trait. Their concept of freedom from ‘government intrusion’ only applies to business and white guys – everyone else needs to be told how to live by those same white guys.

Position: 36.3N 22.3W [ 4PM CDT 2100 UTC].
Movement: East-Northeast [065°] near 16 mph [26 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph [ 75 kph].
Wind Gusts: 60 mph [ 95 kph].

Minimum central pressure: 1000 mb ↑.

Currently about 370 miles [595 km] East-Northeast of the Azores.

Satellite imaging indicate that the eye of Gordon passed over Santa Maria island at 0530 UTC as a category 1 hurricane. At 1200 UTC it weakened to tropical storm strength and Portugal cancelled its Hurricane Warning for the Azores.

Readings from the Azores indicate that in addition to losing strength to the cooler water and wind shear, Gordon is losing its tropical characteristics and should transition to a post-tropical storm and dissipate in the next day or two.

At 2100UTC Gordon has transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone. This is the final advisory from the NHC.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 36.7N 25.8W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: East-Northeast [070°] near 20 mph [32 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph [130 kph].
Wind Gusts: 100 mph [160 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 115 Miles [185 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 35 miles [ 55 km].
Minimum central pressure: 980 mb ↑.

Currently about 45 miles [ 70 km] West-Southwest of Santa Maria island in the Azores.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the eastern Azores.

Gordon is weaker this morning, as the effects of the wind shear and cooler surface temperatures are felt, but it will probably still have hurricane strength when it reaches the Azores early Monday UTC.

The current track will have the storm passing over or near Santa Maria island in the Azores. São Miguel and Santa Maria should both be experiencing tropical storm conditions at 7PM CDT, Midnight local time.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

We have had over 12 inches of rain so far in August and the local weather guys don’t think the stalled front to the North of us is going to move out before September.

As a result of Helene down in the Bay of Campeche, we can expect another major rain event to affect the coast next week. The forecast shows thunderstorms predicted every day.

There are a lot of people on the other side of that front who want and need rain, but it is stuck down here. I expect there will be mushrooms growing in the pots with my Mother’s flowering cacti, which may rot.

You can’t keep the bugs out as they head for dry ground. In the areas where there are still snakes, people will see them on their porches.

Raincoats are worthless in the heat, as your choice of soaking is rain or sweat. I’m ready to put my wallet in a plastic bag and leave the umbrellas and raincoats behind.

Position: 22.8N 99.1W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Northwest [315°] near 3 mph [ 6 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph [ 45 kph].
Wind Gusts: 45 mph [ 70 kph].
Minimum central pressure: 1009 mb ↑.

Currently inland about 85 miles [140 km] West-Northwest of Tampico, Mexico.

It came ashore just South of Tampico and the inland mountains should cause it to dissipate after dumping more rain on an already soaked region.

The NHC has issued its last advisory on the storm, as it has dissipated into a remnant low.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 34.5N 33.9W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: East [080°] near 22 mph [35 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 110 mph [175 kph].
Wind Gusts: 125 mph [200 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 125 Miles [205 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 35 miles [ 55 km].
Minimum central pressure: 965 mb ↓.

Currently about 455 miles [ 730 km] West-Southwest of the Azores.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the central and eastern Azores.

Gordon is a small, tight storm with a very distinctive eye in satellite images. It is expected to weaken before passing through the Azores as shear increases and the water becomes cooler.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 21.0N 96.4W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: Northwest [310°] near 7 mph [11 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph [ 65 kph].
Wind Gusts: 55 mph [ 90 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 35 miles [ 55 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1006 mb.

Currently about 65 miles [105 km] East of Tuxpan, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Barra de Nautla to La Cruz.

This was Tropical Depression Seven that dropped back to remnant low status before getting into the Caribbean. It is in the Bay of Campeche and spun up to a Tropical Storm.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

Position: 34.2N 42.1W [10PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: East [090°] near 18 mph [30 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph [110 kph].
Wind Gusts: 80 mph [130 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 115 Miles [185 km].
Minimum central pressure: 990 mb ↓.

Currently about 880 miles [1420 km] West-Southwest of the Azores.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the central and eastern Azores.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

It’s That Time

Did you say Vet?!

[Editor: Excise had to get his shots and you can see how much he loves that. As with all visits it began with my blood being sacrificed before he entered the carrier.]

Friday Ark