I Have Questions
So you’ve heard about the US claims concerning the building the Israelis bombed in Syria.
The BBC reports that the UN probes US Syria reactor claim
The director general of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei, has now been briefed by the US on their claims but “deplores” the delay, a statement from the agency said.
“The agency will treat this information with the seriousness it deserves and will investigate the veracity of the information,” the statement said.
The agency was critical of both the US delay in releasing the information and of Israel’s bombing of the site before the IAEA could inspect it.
Fine, but look at the picture of the building that the Beeb uses with this story, a picture of the building in question.
The Beeb also provides Images of the alleged Syrian nuclear site and the CIA footage in full, because they practice journalism and think some people might be interested. [I have I mentioned lately how much I appreciate the fact that the BBC provides maps so you know where things are happening.]
Juan Cole is skeptical of the whole thing and the timing of the revelations in his post, Syria Reactor Story a Diversion; But From What?
First off, do I doubt the North Koreans would sell nuclear knowledge to Syria? The North Koreans would sell anything to anybody, but, as Dr. Cole points out and anyone who knows the area can tell you, Syria hasn’t got any cash. The Koreans work for foreign currency, not IOUs. No cash, no deal.
If they built a nuclear reactor, where were the Syrians going to get the fuel to operate it? Again, the Syrians don’t have any money, and everyone knows it.
Next up is the design problem. The Syrians had a big square building in the desert. There are some videos that supposedly show the interior of the building and are of a nuclear plant under construction. It is the same type of plant as the North Korean 5 megawatt reactor at Yongbyon. The problem with this is, there is no evidence in any of the pictures of the Syrian building of a cooling tower that is part of this type of reactor. They’ve got what appears to be a pumping station to bring water in, but no cooling tower. Another little problem is that picture of the building that accompanies the BBC report on the UN action. What the hell is with all the windows? When did windows become part of a nuclear reactor containment building? The only buildings you normally see with a row of windows near the roof like that are factories and warehouses.
When the US can explain about the money, fuel, and cooling systems, it might have a minimal case. Don’t try to say that the cooling system hadn’t been built yet. It has to be integrated into the design, and they are claiming the reactor would have been operational in a few weeks when the Israelis bombed it.
7 comments
The notion that anybody in this day and age can build a nuclear plant in secret is just ludicrous. The North Koreans didn’t do it, the Pakistanis didn’t do it, the Iranians haven’t managed to keep their nuclear facilities secret, Israel wants to believe their nuclear facilities are secret but everybody knows about them anyhow. Everybody and their brother keeps close tabs on any technology that can be used to build nuclear power plants. Even the North Koreans had to import most of the stuff for their power plants, and Syria is just as dirt-poor as North Korea and has even less industry — poorer, maybe, because at least North Korea gets cash for their missiles and nuclear technology, while all Syria gets is bribes to let Hizballah rockets pass through their territory to Lebanon.
That said, there’s some answers. There’s no need for a cooling tower if you’re just going to eject the hot water back into the river. Yeah, that’s not environmentally sound, but so it goes. And the containment building? Commies don’t need no steenkin’ containment, comrade! The North Korean graphite plants don’t have containment buildings either.
That said, the chances of there really being a nuclear plant out there are pretty much non-existent because, well, the Syrians are friggin’ flat broke and the North Koreans ain’t a charity outfit. This setup looks more to me like a house and a generating station for the pumping station down at the river, for pumping water somewhere uphill. I bet if we look at this area real closely on Google Earth we’ll see a water tower further uphill, and a town somewhere nearby that the water tower serves.
Hmm, just found it on Google Earth, and uphill from this is…
a water treatment plant.
Well. Wouldn’t be the first time that U.S.-built bombs smashed a water treatment plant, eh?
As for the building itself, Google Maps shows it as being 150 feet by 150 feet square (move the building over the scale to see what I mean). Or roughly 22,500 square feet. Not small, but not large enough for the purpose indicated. Crap, your typical Safeway grocery store is twice the size (the average Safeway is 44,000 square feet, and the new ones average 55,000 square feet). Unless the Syrians have mastered Dr. Who’s interdimensional Tardis technology, you simply can’t fit what the U.S. is saying was in there into the building that was there…
I am SOOO tired of these lying liars and their continued lies… sigh.
– Badtux the Fact-checking Penguin
Thanks Badtux! YOu saved us all some work. 🙂
Yeah… it realy stinks! So… questions is… WTF were Israel & the USA *REALLY* after? And you can bet your last cent the USA (Bushmoron & co) were in this up to their sloping brows!
I will watch this develop with interest. And do some research of my own with some contacts I have. We’ll see.
Cheers!
All the UN needs to do is follow the water main. If the main goes anywhere except directly to that building, there is absolutely nothing to indicate the possibility of a reactor.
As for the windows, I’ve poured some concrete, and all of those windows make the job more expensive. If you don’t need them, you don’t put openings in a concrete wall.
If they don’t cool that water they lose a lot of food production down stream. Even the North Koreans have solid concrete buildings and cooling towers.
As you have said before, Badtux, this was a training run to test the Russian antiaircraft systems and to set up a run at Iran through Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan.
Of course with all of the junk the Hedgemony has released, it shouldn’t be too difficult for Syrian security forces to pick up a few Israeli agents if there is any truth in any of this.
On Google Earth you can follow the lightly-buried pipeline directly from that building to what appears to be a water treatment plant (at least, I see two settling pools and two aerobic pre-treatment pools similar to, say, the Tempe AZ water treatment plant). Running pipelines in the desert is a bit different from running pipelines in built-up areas or on the flatlands, you’re running across scree-covered rock so either you put it up on pedestals or you just lay it on the ground and pile scree over it to keep the random camel or jackass from kicking it to pieces. You can generally follow their course from the air.
I’ll also point out that there doesn’t seem to be any electric lines scattered around. This implies on-site electrical generation. That’s not a big deal, that’s normal in the desert — it’s easier to haul diesel out there once a week than pop for the PITA of running electrical wires across rock faces.
Regarding cooling towers: There appears to be some construction to the right of the building that could hypothetically be the start of a cooling tower. The problem is that the U.S. said that the reactor was just about *finished*. And that can’t be so if the cooling tower has barely passed the groundbreaking stage.
In short. Right now, I’m at “pull the other flipper, why doncha?” stage. Too much just isn’t adding up.
-Badtux the Nuclear Penguin
There is just too much traffic around the site – the river, a road, a railroad. There are smaller rivers in more isolated areas if you want to do something secret. The sucker is on a bloody hill in full view. There is no attempt to camouflage the site in any way.
I think Syria would love to have nuclear power plants and weapons, but it doesn’t have the cash, and no one is going to give them a loan, even if the credit markets weren’t in total meltdown. With Lebanon coming apart on the West, and Iraq on the East, I can’t see them ready to start something with Israel. The government of Syria is evil, not stupid.
Well, the Bush Administration is proof that evil and stupid can come in the same package, but point taken. Bashar al-Asad is an opthamologist, not an idiot — no way an opthamologist could stay President of Syria if he was an idiot, even if an idiot could become an opthamologist (which, unlike MBA’s, probably isn’t true — I’ve met too many MBA’s who couldn’t find their ass with both hands, but never met an opthamologist of such astounding incompetence).
Besides, Syria already has their deterrent, and a much cheaper one it is. They have tons of organophosphate nerve agents and the missile warheads to fire them off at the Israelis if the Israelis decide to mount another tank attack upon Damascus. So why would they want nukes in the first place?
I think they would like the nuclear power, like everyone else in the region without oil, so they wouldn’t have to suck up to the oil countries. Unfortunately, the rest of the world can’t imagine that “these people” would settle for something as straight-forward as a reliable electric system. In a lot of places animals on treadmills are still powering the pumps for irrigation. While I think that solar and wind would be a better solution, they want something they know will work.
If they build a nuclear power plant, it will automatically be assumed that they want nuclear weapons, and they will, to protect themselves from the crazies who think they are crazy.
Israel is going to be the key for the real crazies in Iran getting around the fatwa against nuclear weapons. The constant threats are going to be the excuse used to undermine the current religious prohibition by the Supreme Leader. Attacking Iran will guarantee they build nuclear weapons for defense.