Totally Different
So Digby agrees with Yglesias that Afghanistan isn’t like Vietnam.
Well, Vietnam involved a lot of jungle warfare, while Afghanistan involves a lot of arid rock. Access for logistics was easy in Vietnam, ports and an open path for aircraft, while it is a nightmare in Afghanistan, a landlocked country that involves cutting deals with other countries, many of which don’t like us. Vietnam involved a much bigger force, which we had because we also had the draft, but the tour was one year, not at the whim of the people in power, and multiple tours were not the norm.
They will both be logged at least a decade, and neither had/has an exit strategy. It is also obvious that we aren’t going to “win” in Afghanistan either.
Another difference is that the UN threw out about a third of the ballots, and the current government agreed that the election will go to a run-off, avoiding the Vietnam mistake of supporting an illegitimate government. John Kerry was the best choice to be sure that didn’t happen, as he knows how that path worked out.
Turkana notes that Dick Cheney is laying the groundwork for the claim of Der Dolchstoß, the “stab in the back”, to wiggle out of the responsibility for this mess. Cheney says that if Obama doesn’t immediately give the military everything they want, it will be Obama’s fault that we fail.
Elroon notes that Retired General Paul Eaton takes Cheney to school on that, pointing out all of the things that the Hedgemony did that made winning impossible at this point. This war was lost years ago, when al Qaeda wasn’t trapped and eliminated in Afghanistan, and the country wasn’t started on economic development almost immediately. You can’t do these things on the cheap – you need a lot of boots to control the situation and prevent a guerrilla war from developing. If you lose control of the security situation, you lose credibility with the people.
Just because they aren’t identical doesn’t mean that you should ignore the lessons that were learned at the cost of tens of thousands of American lives. That is exactly what the Hedgemony did.
4 comments
You know… If I hadn’t been in Cambodia, I’d be seriously and severely laughing my ass off right about now!! But in all honesty… none of this is funny any longer, it’s just simply… completely pathetic and par for the course. Even IF the USA had the *numbers on the ground*, the USA still wouldn’t have a hope in hell of *winning* (whatever the hell that means in places like Afghanistan). One only has to look at the debacle for the USSR (which, just BTW, had more to do with bankrupting the former Soviet Union than anything the USA did). The USSR was far more savage and pretty much tried to kill anything that moved, and they still had their asses handed to them.
No idea… just, no freaking idea! Stupidity really is it’s own just reward.
Lucky for you all, I have a 3 assignments to finish, so no time for lectures or rants, and anyway, it’s all been said before over, and over, and over… But the USA NEVER listens! Suckers! 😆
The only way to “win” a guerrilla war is to prevent it from starting. You do that by acting quickly and getting foreign troops out ASAP, two years at the maximum, and making visible progress that obviously improves the lives of local people. Building roads and bridges followed by sturdy community centers is a good way of going. Providing medical care is always a winner, as is adapted seed and tools.
If you aren’t prepared to do it in less than two years, don’t do it. You can’t explain a five year planning cycle to people who are starving and/or terrorized.
Funny how that works out! 😉
It wasn’t just the USSR that were defeated and humiliated in Afghanistan, but also the British at the height of it’s Empire, not once… but twice! 😀 Maybe another little historical perspective for those remotely interested. 😉
Afghanistan was founded in 1747 by Ahmad Shah Durran, a former bodyguard of assassinated Persian ruler Nadir Shah, with its capital at Kandahar. Ahmad Shah goes on to conquer present-day Pakistan as well as parts of Iran and India.
In 1826, Dost Mohammad takes the throne in Kabul but soon comes under pressure from Sikh invaders and from the British, now ruling neighboring India, because of his links with Russia and Iran.
In 1838, the Britain launch the First Anglo-Afghan War to place Shuja Shah on the throne in Kabul. The British stay until 1842 before withdrawing through the Khyber Pass. In the final year of the war a combined British and Raj force of 4,500 troops and more than 12,000 camp followers is massacred after leaving Kabul en route for Jalalabad. the British have no exit strategy, and almost the entire force is killed trying to exit Afghanistan, only a single survivor reaches Jalalabad.
In 1878, the Second Anglo-Afghan War breaks out after Afghanistan’s ruler, Dost Mohammad’s son Sher Ali, refuses to accept a British delegation at his court. The British have planned this much better this time and secured cooperation within Afghanistan, and have a defined exit strategy. The war lasts until 1880 when the British withdraw having secured most of their objectives.
In 1919, Afghanistan regains it’s independence after a third war against Britain.
Some stability is returned in 1933 following years of civil unrest, Zahir Shah becomes king and remains in power for the next 40 years.
Afghanistan becomes a Republic in 1973. The former prime minister, Mohammed Daud, seizes power in a coup and declares a republic. He is overthrown in 1978 and a year later, Hufizullah Amin wins a power struggle and becomes president.
In 1979, Soviet troops move into Afghanistan and remove Hufizullah Amin from power. In 1980, backed by the Soviet Union, Babrack Karmal is installed as president.
In 1985 Islamic fighters known as Mujahedeen intensify their resistance to the government and Soviet occupation. The United States provides financial backing to their cause and in 1986 supplies them with Stinger missiles, enabling Mujahedeen to shoot down Soviet helicopters.
In 1989, the Mujahedeen triumph and Soviets retreat. Soviet troops leave Afghanistan, leaving pro-Soviet President Mohammed Nujiballah exposed.
In 1992, the Mujahedeen take control of the capital, Kabul and President Nujibullah falls from power. Rival militias compete for control.
In 1996, the hard-line regime of the Taliban seize control and introduce extreme Islamic law, banning women from work and using brutal punishments like stoning to death and amputations.
In 1998 The United States launches air strikes on suspected bases of Osama bin Laden, who is accused of organising bombings of US embassies in Africa.
September 11 2001, Four US airliners are hijacked. Two are flown into the World Trade Centre and one hits the Pentagon. Another crashes in Pennsylvania. Almost 3,000 people are killed in the attacks. The United States blames Al Qaeda.
Military action begins October- December. The US and Britain launch air strikes in Afghanistan after the Taliban refuse to hand over bin Laden. Opposition forces seize most major cities including Kabul and the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar. The USA and Great Britain have no exit strategy.
There is an interesting Aussie blog that has a nice summary about the current debacle:
History tells us “don’t meddle in Afghanistan”
One of the curious aspects of *History* is that it *NEVER* applies to the *true believers* and the *faith peddlers*. Sadly for everyone else, those groups generally drag them (or even push them) into the grinder through their arrogance and stupidity, and, as History repeatedly teaches, it’s rarely the *true believers* and faith peddlers* who are the ones who pay for it. Perhaps if the ignorant multitude of sheeple would learn History, the others wouldn’t be able to drag or push them into the crap so often. 🙂
In 1998 The United States launches air strikes on suspected bases of Osama bin Laden…
They weren’t suspected, US taxpayers paid to have them built, so we knew exactly where they were and what they were used for.
Get in, secure, re-build, and get the hell out. That is the only way of dealing with Afghanistan. Two years is the maximum. Local labor and materials whenever possible to build roads and community centers. You don’t have time for big contracts, so don’t promise them.
Solar power panels and crank-powered radios and lights are good, and you might be able to throw up some cell towers, but don’t think in terms of hydro-electric dams or other large targets. Don’t build anything that looks like a permanent military base, because that’s a gift to the guerrillas as a target and a talking point.
You have to speak the local languages. If you can’t talk directly to the local people, you can’t win support.
The US military transferred all of the Civil Affairs operations to the Reserves, so there is no one of any standing in the Pentagon who specializes in, and understands civil affairs.