Above Average Season?

Dr Masters looks at the NOAA 2011 hurricane forecast:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. NOAA forecasts a very active and possibly hyperactive season. They give a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA predicts a 70% chance that there will be 12 – 18 named storms, 6 – 10 hurricanes, and 3 – 6 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 105% – 200% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 152% of normal. A season with an ACE index over 165% is considered “hyperactive.” An average season has 10 – 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during 1995-2010 have averaged about 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. NOAA classifies 11 of the 16 seasons since 1995 as above normal, with eight being hyperactive. Only five seasons since 1995 have not been above normal, which include four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the 2007 season.

Last year’s La Niña has faded and the current projection is a neutral season, which is very good news for Australia after what the “Baby Girl” brought them last year, but the sea surface temperatures are high and conducive to tropical storm formation.

This is an informed guess, which is better than a WAG [wild ass guess], but only marginally so. Things are not working like they used to, so you plan for the worst and hope for the best.