Posts from — October 2009

Position: 18.4 N 55.3 W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: West-Northwest [290°] near 17 mph [28 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph [75 kph].
Wind Gusts: 55 mph [90 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 70 miles [110 km].
Minimum central pressure: 1006 mb ↓.

It is 510 miles [825 km] East of the Leeward Islands.

The wind shear is not favorable for Henri, so it may be short-lived.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

If you have an e-mail account with Hotmail, MSN, Live, or any other Micro$oft entity, change your password immediately.

Of course, if someone else has seen the list and already visited the control panel and changed the password, you are SOL. Your friends will hate you when they start receiving spam under your e-mail address.

If you use the same name and passwords for other things, change those too, because too many people only use only one user name and password for everything.

There is sad, if not unexpected, news for Stella and Steve.

Julie Creswell of The New York Times covers the autopsy: Buyout firms profit as Simmons sinks.

This is what Reagan and Rand are all about. This is why the US economic system is so screwed up.

In this case it was a stable, profitable manufacturing company, but they have done the same thing to newspapers, timber companies, food companies, … every type of industry in the US.

They look for companies that have very low debt and constant but unexciting profits. They borrow all the money they can, so their personal risk is minimal, and buy the company. They then sell off anything they think they can make a quick buck on, and mortgage everything else, using the proceeds to cover their initial investment, and leave the company unable to remain profitable because of the huge debt load.

This is all part of the same thinking that resulted in the ubiquitous HELOC [Home Equity Line Of Credit]. In this view of the world the only purpose of assets is to back debt, because you are stupid to own your home. You need to get that money out and gamble in the stock market or support an absurd lifestyle.

Position: 49.7 N 13.4 W [10 PM CDT 0300 UTC].
Movement: North-Northeast [025°] near 26 mph [43 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph [80 kph].
Wind Gusts: 60 mph [95 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 85 miles [140 km].
Minimum central pressure: 986 mb.

It is 210 miles [335 km] Southwest of Cork, Ireland.

Grace has been absorbed by a frontal system and is dissipating. This is the final advisory.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

I tend to focus on fires that threaten people and homes because there is more information available and, in many cases, I know people in the area or once lived there. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t a lot of other large fires burning.

Alaska has had almost a million acres burned this year, but they tended to be in remote areas and caused by lightning, i.e. natural fires, and you couldn’t really fight them if you wanted to without the real danger of someone dying in the effort.

The Sheep Fire in the San Bernardino National Forest, California started yesterday afternoon, and they have to jump on it because it has already burned three homes and is headed for more.

The Twin Fire in the Kaibab National Forest, Arizona started as a controlled burn that went awry when the wind shifted 180° from the forecast and became gusty. The fire threatens the town of Williams near I-40.

The Lily Lake Fire in the Beaverhead/Dearlodge National Forest, Montana has been burning since August, but rain and snow have arrived to put it out.

Rain and snow are also what’s needed for the Tumblebug Complex in the Williamette National Forest, Oregon, actually 25 fires, and the Boze and Rainbow Creek Fires in the Umpqua National Forest, Oregon. They have been under constant watch, but as long as private property isn’t involved, the decision was made to let nature take its course.

When resources are limited, and they definitely are, you do what you can where you can with what you have. When money is tight, you can’t always do what you would like to do, or what you think would be best.

Last weekend was a bit busy and I am still catching up, as my Mother was ill. She had a flu shot on Wednesday and then fell ill on Friday and was miserable in the entire weekend.

According to the Centers for Disease Control this is what you should look for in H1N1 –

In adults, emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include:

• Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
• Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen
• Sudden dizziness
• Confusion
• Severe or persistent vomiting
• Flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough

Mother had all but the last item and is fine now.

She has a great health insurance combination, Medicare and Tricare for Life. In general she pays nothing for health care, unless she wants a prescription filled that isn’t carried by the local Air Force pharmacy, or that she wants immediately. Even then it is $3 for generics and $9 for a named medication. It’s great coverage, that was won from the Federal government after a law suit that dragged on for a decade.

The problem is that this is insurance, not health care. If she needed health care, she would have been forced to go to a hospital emergency room. She needed a prescription for an anti-viral, but the only way she could have gotten it between 4PM Friday and 9AM Monday was by going to the emergency room and exposing dozens of people to the flu. This is stupid. This is not how you stop a pandemic. This is not a functional system.

I can get a cat seen by a vet with a phone call, but the emergency room is the only answer for people. Does this make sense?

Digby read this fairy tale in the New York Times about the “plight” of the obscenely wealthy in the GOPression. As always they attached the totally bogus argument that the rich are important because they finance new businesses and expansions.

The old money rich, as a group, don’t spend their money, and they damn sure don’t risk anything on new ventures.

This is the justification for all the tax cuts, to spur investments, but it doesn’t happen because the old money stay rich by minimizing their exposure to risk.

If an entrepreneur strikes it rich, they might enter the world of venture capitalism, like Richard Branson of Virgin and Paul Allen of Microsoft, but the old line families use other people’s money, not their own if they perceive any risk at all. That’s how they get to be old money.

New businesses are started by people mortgaging everything they own and borrowing money from friends and relatives. If they are semi-successful they can then get small business loans for their first expansion. If the success is sustained, or they have been successful in an earlier enterprise, they can then cut a deal with a venture capitalist. If that goes well, they will have an initial public offering and get money from the sale of stock.

The IPO rarely funds any major growth, and is normally done to pay off the venture capitalists.

The stock market and old rich don’t invest in new businesses, they suck the life out of businesses with a proven record of success. The only exception has been the tech bubble, which was a ponzi scheme, and old money wasn’t really affected because they don’t do “new”.

I went to college with old money, and I had them as clients. They are the cheapest people on the planet, and the slowest paying. They never carry a wallet, and don’t pay for anything, because they don’t have to.

Position: 18.9 N 120.1 E [10 PM 0300 UTC].
Movement: West [280°] near 8 mph [13 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph [120 kph].
Wind Gusts: 90 mph [150 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 110 miles [175 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 15 miles [25 km].
Minimum central pressure: 975 mb.

It is 290 miles [465 km] North of Manila, Philippines. The storm is back over the water and the steering currents are muddled. The forecast is for slowing and a turn to the North.

Its slow approach and interaction with the mountains disrupted the storm, so it came ashore as a category one storm. The fact that it had been a category 4 pushed the government to implement wide scale evacuations which should save lives. It is a small storm which limits its destruction, and it hit the island on the northern side of its track guidance, further away from population centers than predicted. There have already been deaths associated with the storm, and there are likely to be more from the rains and mudslides,

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

On All Things Considered: New Jobs Numbers Point To Fragile Recovery

The jobs market deteriorated in September as employers cut 263,000 jobs, far more than expected. The unemployment rate for the month was 9.8 percent, the highest since June 1983. The quickening pace of layoffs deals a blow to hopes for a solid economic recovery.

The audio is now available and you can find out that, not only have more jobs been cut but the normal precursors to an improving job market [increase in hours worked and more temps being hired] is not happening. Many of the jobs being cut were in state and local governments as they struggle to balance budgets.

One of the local universities has dozens of instructional vacancies it can’t afford to fill because the state cut their funding. Federal stimulus funding has helped to reduce the total number of cuts, but they are turning people away that they would love to have, both students and faculty.

The last recession had a “jobless recovery”, but it was covered up by easy credit and the housing bubble, which fueled the GOPression. Until people have jobs and a steady, reliable income, there isn’t going to be a recovery, no matter what the GDP does. You can’t have an economy if no one can afford to buy.

The St. Petersburg Times has a profile: ‘Die quickly’ just a sample of Alan Grayson’s sound bite attack

Routine questions elicit deeply philosophical responses. Asked where he got his political leanings, Grayson’s answer ran eight minutes.

“There are now over 6 billion of us,” he said. “When I buy something, I’m buying the fruits of someone else’s labor. When I watch TV, I’m seeing things that other people have created. We are all highly specialized and highly independent and the only way to make everyone better off is if everyone is better off. My political philosophy is to see that that happens.”

I don’t approve of everything he’s done since entering Congress, especially not the Orlando hurricane center, but he sees it as part of his job as a Congresscritter. He at least knows who he works for – the voters in his district.

The Miami Herald says that Rio wins right to host the 2016 Olympics.

South America has never hosted the Olympics and Rio has an international reputation as a party city, so it shouldn’t be a surprise.

The US should just stop wasting money applying to host international events. The War on Terror™ has made it a royal PITA for anyone to travel to or even through the US, so no international group is going to take US bids seriously.

EBW at Wampum has made this point multiple times concerning Internet meetings, which are no longer held in the US because of visa hassles.

The same thing happened in this year’s Iditarod, with only one European team, and only five Canadians competing.

As long as the paranoia continues, US cities should just stop wasting their money on international bids – it is not going to happen.

Position: 17.7 N 122.5 E [10 PM 0300 UTC].
Movement: Northwest [315°] near 14 mph [22 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 105 mph [165 kph].
Wind Gusts: 130 mph [205 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 175 miles [280 km].
Hurricane Wind Radius: 40 miles [65 km].
Minimum central pressure: 970 mb ↑.

It is 230 miles [370 km] North-Northeast of Manila, Philippines.

The outer bands are already on shore, and the storm is forecast to slow, and possibly stall in the area, which will increase the damage. It is expected to move on shore in the next 6 hours.

The major damage will be even more rain on already saturated soils, resulting in more mudslides.

Here’s the link for NOAA’s latest satellite images.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]