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Predictions — Why Now?
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I’m going out on a limb and predict that John Edwards and Mike Huckabee will win in Iowa and South Carolina. If anyone, like the reporters who are covering the elections, don’t understand why the races are theirs to lose, it’s time to do your homework.

These two men appeal to the committed voters in their parties in these two states, and these two states have been consistent in their choices for a very long time. This is of course why these states should not be given the over-emphasis that they receive from the media.

On the Democratic side people seem to have forgotten that Edwards came in second to Kerry in Iowa in 2004 and has expanded on that experienced team, while Bill Clinton and his team didn’t even contest Iowa in 1992, so the Clintons and others don’t have the Iowa-specific team that Edwards has.


1 Michael { 12.19.07 at 11:05 pm }

It would be nice. I’d be even happier to see the frontrunners fall behind to the extent that we’re seriously debating whether John Edwards or Dennis Kucinich should be the nominee. 🙂

2 Bryan { 12.19.07 at 11:23 pm }

Iowa is a very complicated process and you need experienced local people to pull it off. Howard Dean had a lot of people, but they didn’t know how to work the process.

California would be a good test for Democrats with all of the diversity of interests, but the early primary states don’t tell you much about the nation.

3 hipparchia { 12.20.07 at 1:30 am }

a serious debate on whether edwards or kucinich should be the nominee… now that i think about it, a country having that debate would be a utopia.

4 Cookie Jill { 12.20.07 at 3:16 am }

You dare question the choice of the Democratic Candidate which has already been chosen for you via the Corporate Media?

I’m so sick of having Hillary stuffed down my throat as “the only viable candidate” and the ultimate nominee. I’d love to see her come in 4th in Iowa.

5 fallenmonk { 12.20.07 at 8:11 am }

Pretty safe bets I think Bryan. The polls are showing both to potential winners but as you say Iowa is very complicated. I, for one, would lie to see Edwards do well. Among all the candidates that even have a chance I see Edwards as the one with the best chance to make a difference in the Washington works.

6 Bryan { 12.20.07 at 12:25 pm }

That is the debate that should be taking place, Hipparchia, because the so-called second tier candidates are the ones that have figured out you can’t negotiate with the Repubs because they simply don’t believe in compromise. If I wanted a moderate Repub, I’d vote for one, but I’m looking for a liberal Democrat who stands for something.

If you come to the table willing to negotiate and the other side isn’t, the only possible result is capitulation. The rules changed beginning with Reagan and the course has been constant. Bill Clinton was the master of the deal, but Congress and the government still shut down because the Repubs don’t want to make a deal, they want to “score points.”

Jill, the media decide on the narrative for the campaign and then plug people into it, with little regard for reality. They’ll act surprised and go all “Condi” with “no one could have imagined” that the guy who came in second in 2004, who has an experienced team on the ground, who understands the state and its issues would win. Clinton and Obama must have worn the wrong clothes to events.

The media are so worthless.

FM, Edwards understands that the corporations are the problem and have no intention of compromise. They have gotten everything they wanted from the Repubs and think that Congress will continue to be their good and reliable employees.

7 Why Now? » Blog Archive » Iowa { 01.04.08 at 9:41 am }

[…] I’m 1 for 2 on predictions, with Huckabee taking Iowa and Edward second on the Democratic side. Obama convinced young voters […]