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Tropical Storm Fay – Day 4

Tropical Storm FayPosition: 25.3 N 81.9 W. [10 PM CDT]
Movement: North [360°] near 9 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph.
Wind Gusts: 70 mph.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 125 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 995 mb.

It is 60 miles South of Naples, Florida.

It currently looks like Naples with be the target as the storm is heading due North.  while the pressure has been dropping, the winds haven’t caught up, so it might be a minimal category 1 when in comes ashore tomorrow morning, but a burst of intensification is looking less likely given the current windshear conditions.

After landfall the steering becomes confused, which is why the models are showing solutions that are from West to East.  Very weird.

3 comments

1 Badtux { 08.18.08 at 3:36 pm }

Looks like it’s coming your way…

2 Steve Bates { 08.18.08 at 4:13 pm }

Look at those computer models. It’s clear they don’t have an effing clue where it’s going, more than a few hours from now. Based on the models, you might see it… even I might see it. Good thing they have human forecasters who have the experience to say where it’s really going. Um, don’t they? 😈

3 Bryan { 08.18.08 at 4:25 pm }

Dr. Masters is right this thing is screwing with the computer models, they can’t get a fix on the sucker. The peninsula is going to get pounded, but no one can say for certain what it is going to do after 24 hours. It will be a hurricane shortly, but a low over South Texas is giving it some trouble with wind sheer, so it probably won’t quite get to Cat 2 before landfall at its next stop.