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Obersturmfury Gustav – Category 4

Hurricane GustavPosition: 23.1 N 83.8 W. [10 PM CDT]
Movement: Northwest [320°] near 15 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph.
Wind Gusts: 170 mph.
Hurricane Wind Radius: 70 miles.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 175 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 948 mb.

It is over the Gulf about 530 miles Southeast of the Gulf Coast.

Gustav is Category 4, and isn’t apt to lose it’s major status until after landfall in the US.

at 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…a Hurricane Watch is issued for the
northern Gulf Coast from east of High Island Texas eastward to the
Alabama-Florida border…including the city of New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area…generally within 36 hours.

At 500 PM EDT…a tropical storm watch is issued along the Panhandle
coast of Florida from east of the Alabama-Florida border eastward
to the Ochlockonee River. A tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area…generally within 36 hours.


1 hipparchia { 08.30.08 at 3:26 pm }

new orleans is in trouble.

2 Bryan { 08.30.08 at 4:31 pm }

Anything this sucker gets near is in trouble. Cuba is being pounded. I’m expecting a 6-8 foot surge over here.

3 John B. { 08.30.08 at 8:30 pm }

Are you getting the first stiff winds from leading storm bands? Saw & felt the first here around 8:20 pm.

4 Bryan { 08.30.08 at 8:43 pm }

There was a small chunk of thunderstorm attached when they came by out of the East a little earlier than that, maybe 8PM.

You could get 10 to 12 feet of surge on the beach, and are going to lose some sand.

This sucker got big.

5 hipparchia { 08.30.08 at 9:40 pm }

the model tracks are closer together than they were earlier today, but they’ve moved east a bit too. if it doesn’t get any fiercer or closer to us than katrina did, i’ll be staying here with all the critters, but if it looks like it’s going to be another ivan, things are going to get interesting.

6 Bryan { 08.30.08 at 10:25 pm }

It looks like around Houma, LA at the moment. After it passes over the Eddy which should kick it up to a 5, there is a cool eddy that it should then pass over which should take the edge off. There is a lot of shear available but it is too big and strong to be really bothered.

If it is going to stall, and there’s no indication it will, I’m hoping it will be over the cool eddy, probably a remnant of Fay’s rain. The water near the coast is cool, so that will help some, but NOLA is on the wrong side of this thing and it is going to be backing water up the Mississippi if it moves as forecast. Of course, that means it will be pushing the water in Lake Pontchartrain away from the city.

I noticed today that gas is up a dime, and it isn’t going to get cheaper after Gustav moves through the platforms.

7 mapaghimagsik { 08.30.08 at 11:39 pm }

A complete mess. I hope that the new plan of evacuating everyone out of New Orleans works better than the old plan.

its not a good sign that Blackwater is already salivating over this.

8 Bryan { 08.30.08 at 11:53 pm }

According to my Mother, who watches television when she knits, the gas stations are running out along the Interstates.

That happened on I-10 during and after Katrina. Florida’s Bush go on the news saying that 70% of the stations had gas, without mentioning that none of them were on the western 100 miles on I-10 in Florida.

The same thing happened in Rita.