Tropical Storm Gustav – Again
Position: 18.8 N 75.4 W. [10 PM CDT]
Movement: West-Southwest [250°] near 8 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph.
Wind Gusts: 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 35 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 999 mb.
It is 100 miles South of Guantanamo, Cuba.
[7PM] It’s over open water now but was really disorganized by the Haitian mountains.
[10 PM] Now it’s headed a little South of West which puts it closer to Jamaica when it passes. Not quite as weird as Fay yet, but it is unsettling with two major patches of very warm water ahead.
4 comments
…looking at some of the computer model information at Weather Underground earlier today, I was struck by a particular ironic thought:
That guy from “Focus On The Family” cranked out a video a couple of weeks ago calling on the faithful to pray for pounding, immense, biblical rain to strike Denver on Thursday to disrupt Obama’s acceptance speech. What he may get instead is a deadly major hurricane coming ashore somewhere on the Gulf Coast during the Repubican National Convention and the Bushco version of FEMA in charge of the response…
I pray that none of this would come to pass, but the backstory is certainly ironic…
It does sort of look like it’s attracted to the Louisiana coast at the moment. Those rebuilt New Orleans levees may get a work out.
Count on paying more for gasoline, because there is no way this thing isn’t going to affect Gulf oil production if it wanders anywhere in the Western Gulf of Mexico.
…I see this morning’s 5-day composite has the center of the track making landfall as a Cat 3 very near where Katrina came ashore. I don’t give a hoot about Trent Lott’s front porch, but the rest of the folks in that area don’t this again so soon…
I also notice that the NGFDL and NOGAPS models predict a track in your general direction. Be safe.
It’s too far out for any real accuracy, but I definitely don’t want it to hit near NOLA. I don’t think the levees will hold.
The key will be a floating mass of super-hot water in the Gulf. If it passes over that area, it will jump to Cat 5. Our coastal water has been cooled some by Fay dumping rain and blocking the sun, so that will mitigate, but no one deserves to get hit by this.