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Obersturmfury Dean — Why Now?
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Obersturmfury Dean

Dean is South of the Dominican Republic bringing tropical storm force winds and rain. Southwestern Puerto Rico is still being hit. As it moves WNW at 17 mph along the coast the the winds will pick-up with the Southwestern tip of Haiti receiving hurricane force winds and torrential rains as the day wears on.

Dean currently has 150 mph sustained winds with 185 mph gusts. It is moving WNW at 17 mph. It will probably become a Category 5 hurricane later today before it hits Jamaica. The current forecast has it hitting Jamaica, the Caymans, and Cozumel as a Category 5 with sustained winds of 155+ mph.

With storms this big it is normal for them to undergo eyewall replacements, which are the equivalent of stopping and taking a short break before going back to work. Dean may drop in intensity for a short period, but it has everything it needs to spins right back up.


1 hipparchia { 08.18.07 at 1:39 pm }

[can’t find the langenscheidt’s… babelfish says upper storm fury]

… taking a short break before going back to work.
my new favorite description of eyewall replacement cycles. thanks.

my new favorite hurricane page: hurricane hunter path through the storm

i see that the models have all moved the track further south than last night’s predictions. generally they’re all in agreement through about the first three days, and diverge quite a bit by five days out. there was a time [starting with ivan] when i was trying to keep track of each individual model’s predictions to see which came closest to being right, but that turned out to be more than i wanted to keep up with.

2 Bryan { 08.18.07 at 3:10 pm }

Obersturmführer was a SS rank. When Dean becomes a Cat 5 it will change to Hauptsturmfury. Mindless destruction always reminds me of the SS.

The GDFL heading that far north was worrisome because it has been one of the best models. The jumps are about the end of ridge and the movement of a low into the Gulf. These are providing the steering for the storm.

That low is a good news/bad news situation that Jeff Masters talks about. The interaction not only provides steering, but if they touch, Dean could be seriously weakened or STRENGTHENED on the exchange.

3 hipparchia { 08.18.07 at 4:50 pm }

ignorance of these little factoids is what i get for skipping history class to blow up the chemistry lab, i guess. speaking of history, i’m going to hope that dean is following it more closely than i did.

4 Bryan { 08.18.07 at 5:24 pm }

Someone has to blow up Chem labs or we would never progress. History is supposed to stop us from continually doing the same stupid things, but it hasn’t been very successful in that role.