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Obersturmfury Dean – Sunday

At 10AM CDT Dean is maintaining 145 mph sustained winds with gust to 180. It is currently moving West [280°] at 18 mph.

The western peninsula of Haiti is still experiencing tropical storm force winds, and so is the eastern half of Jamaica. The storm is on track for the eye to pass just to the South of Jamaica which will bring hurricane force winds to most, if not all, of the island. It will be bad, but not as bad as it could be with a direct hit. Jamaica has shutdown its electrical grid across the island, and is shutting down water system pumps in areas subject to flooding.

Currently the Cayman Islands can expect tropical storm force winds.

Dean has a 7-9-foot surge and is generating large waves that are pounding coastlines. Combined with the intense rain, water and erosion are dangerous components of any storm. Landslides are very possible.

Once passed the islands and in the warmer waters of the northwestern Caribbean, Dean is expect to gain strength and become a Category 5 hurricane before hitting the Yucatan peninsula of Mexican around Bahia de la Ascensión. There are multiple archæological sites and a nature reserve in that area.


1 Steve Bates { 08.19.07 at 6:16 pm }

I suspect somehow that the thought “it could have been worse” will not be a lot of comfort to those in or near Dean’s path. I’ve been in several hurricanes and numerous tropical storms in my life, but only once in the direct path (yes, I disobeyed all instructions and went outdoors when the eye passed over; how could I resist), and even though it was not a major hurricane by the time it reached Houston, Alicia scared the fool out of me. Our worst consequence: after the storm, we discovered a large broken tree branch dangling less than a foot from the roof. Indeed, it could have been worse.

IIRC, approximately three-fourths of Houston is vulnerable to storm surge if the approach of the storm is along an unlucky path. The good news is that Stella and I live in the remaining quarter of the city. That doesn’t give me a lot of confidence, though.

Here? oh… on Sunday afternoon, we’re not having any weather worth mentioning. Skies are partly sunny; there’s no wind or rain.

My thoughts and prayers are with those people still in Dean’s path.

2 Bryan { 08.19.07 at 8:15 pm }

Dean had two eyewalls when it approached Jamaica: one 15 miles from the center and the other 37 miles from the center. This is part of the replacement cycle, the inner one will eventually collapse on itself and disappear. Both had Cat 4 winds. If it had passed directly over the island they would have been hit four times with those winds, with a short break in between. That would hammer the hell out of just about anything, and that is why this sucker was extra scary approaching Jamaica.