When Fantasy Meets Reality
The BBC notes US rejects Russian missile call
Talks between the US and Russia about a US anti-missile system in Europe have ended acrimoniously and without any sign of progress.
The US rejected Russian appeals at the talks in Moscow to halt the scheme.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said his country would take steps to neutralise the threat posed by the missile system if it went ahead.
He said it was based on a false assumption – that there was a nuclear threat from Iran.
US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said the shield system was not directed at Russia.
If I’m a Russian and know that Iran does not have a nuclear capability, and is not likely to get it in the near future based on first hand knowledge of what they are doing and the resources available, what am I to conclude about the US putting an anti-missile system in the former Eastern Bloc nations? Of course, I assume the system is directed at Russia.
Just as with Iraq, Russia has people and intelligence resources in Iran. They have a pretty good idea what Iran can and can’t do. They sell Iran weapons, and send “technical representatives” in with the weapons. The Russians assume that the US is looking at the same facts and has to draw the same conclusion – Iran is not a realistic threat to the US. Given that knowledge, the Russians are not going to accept the anti-missile system on their doorstep as benign.
2 comments
That’s an awfully big if you start off with. I’m not arguing it’s not plausible, just pointing out that it’s a big leap. And it does seem to me that there’s at least as much fantastical thinking (and pseudo-macho posturing) going on in the Kremlin as there is in the Bu$hevik White House on this issue. Pooty-poot is thrusting out his chest and making big because he has to maintain his strong-man image for domestic consumption–especially if, as is widely rumored, he’s planning to subvert the constitution when his term ends and stays in power. If he can’t convince the Russian people he’s precisely the strongman to lead them out of the mess they’re in and bring back something that at least looks a little bit like the glory days they think they remember under Communism, they’ll throw him under a bus quicker than a used tissue.
Putin is engineering his continued hold on power by shifting to the Duma and making the prime minister the main power in the government. He has picked a stooge to become the new President, and will “discover” that there is too much power in the office of the President, and have it shifted to the prime minister where there are no term limits.
The Russians have been working on Iranian nuclear facilities and with Iranian scientists, and they still have control of the extensive networks that were built during the Soviet era. They don’t want nuclear weapons in another neighboring country, as China is more than enough to watch. There is historical animosity between Russia and Iran, and they compete in the energy market. Russia has no real reason to back Iran if they are moving towards nuclear weapons.
The Russians don’t see any reason for Iran to be a threat, so they assume that the moves against Iran have a different goal – Russia. Putin still thinks is Soviet/Cold War terms, and the Hedgemony has given him no reason to adjust his views.
Russia can’t be believe that the Hedgemony is ignoring them, which is essentially what has been going on. Their self-esteem won’t allow them to accept that their response to anything might be considered unimportant to the US.
Putin is definitely posturing for the home audience, but he and the Russian people do think this is a threat by the US directed against them. I’m not sure what the reaction would be if they told the Russians that the US is spending billions on an elaborate charade to justify Cheney’s desire to attack Iran. In this case I’m not sure that the truth is better than a lie.