Posts from — May 2011

The former governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty, has thrown his tin-foil toque into the race to be the Republicant nominee for President in 2012. As Rook notes, that he released his video announcement on a day when there was a disaster in Minnesota is emblematic of his term as governor.

Other than being blander than distilled water, Mr. Pawlenty’s term as governor is best remembered for the Interstate 35W bridge collapse that resulted in the death of 5 people. Then-Governor Pawlenty vetoed a gas tax increase two years in a row prior to the collapse. The purpose of the increase was to have more money to repair roads and bridges.

Maybe T-Paw can convince Michael Brown to be his running mate.

Update: Via Badtux, check out where T-Paw’s hometown newspaper, St. Paul Pioneer Press, put his announcement. Well, it saves time and space, as they don’t have to run an editorial on it. [That’s got to hurt.]

The Kansas City Star that the Joplin tornado death toll jumps to 89

JOPLIN, Mo. — A massive tornado blasted its way across southwestern Missouri on Sunday, flattening several blocks of homes and businesses in Joplin and leaving residents frantically scrambling through the wreckage.

At least 89 have died in the massive tornado, authorities say.

City manager Mark Rohr announced the number at a pre-dawn news conference outside the wreckage of a hospital that took a direct hit from Sunday’s storm.

Rohr said the twister cut a path nearly six miles long and more than a half-mile wide through the center of town.

Much of the city’s south side was leveled, with businesses, homes and restaurants reduced to ruins.

Dr Jeff Masters provides the technical details:

The incredibly violent tornado season of 2011 struck another sickening blow last night, when a violent tornado carved a ½ – ¾ mile-wide path of devastation through Joplin, Missouri. At least 89 people died, hundreds were injured, and huge sections of the town virtually obliterated. Damage from the tornado is so severe that pavement was ripped from the ground, which is characteristic of a top-end EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph. This was almost certainly a least an EF-4 tornado with winds over 166 mph, and the level of damage is so extreme that this is likely to surpass last month’s Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado as the costliest tornado of all-time.

Dr Masters has the radar images of the event as well as a NASA satellite image – a tornado big enough to be seen from space. [The tornado isn’t obvious in the picture unless you know what to look for. It is to the left and just above the center of the picture, a small swirl in the break between two masses of cumulus clouds.]

Position: 12.2N 130.6E [ 9PM CST 0300 UTC Noon JST].
Movement: West-Northwest [295°] near 8 mph [13 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph [100 kph].
Wind Gusts: 80 mph [130 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 110 miles [175 km].

Currently about 795 miles [1280 km] East-Southeast of Manila, Philippines.

No major changes to the forecast reasoning or tracking, which is bad news for Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands, but it has encountered some interference in the Northwest quadrant which is slowing development.

[For the latest information click on the storm symbol, or go to the CATEGORIES drop-down box below the CALENDAR and select “Hurricanes” for all of the posts related to storms on this site.]

The Times-Picayune reports that Flooding fears recede for residents in Morganza Floodway

BUTTE LA ROSE — Unleashing a torrent greater than Niagara Falls, the Morganza Floodway is gushing 114,000 cubic feet of water per second into the Atchafalaya River Basin, spawning white-water rapids that churn more than 100 yards from the control structure.

When the spillway gates started opening May 14 to reduce near-record levels on the rain-swollen Mississippi River, the Army Corps of Engineers projected there would be up to 25 feet of flooding in a 20-mile-wide, 150-mile-long swath of Cajun country from Melville to Morgan City.

But with no significant flooding of inhabited areas more than a week later, some floodway residents, especially those who packed all their belongings and headed for higher ground days ago, are asking a simple question: Where’s the water?

The flood projections were made based on what happened the last time the Morganza Spillway was used, in 1973. That year the ground was saturated and the Atchafalaya River system was already high before the gates were opened. In addition more gates were opened, and they were opened at the same time.

This year the river system is low and the ground dry from a winter drought. The Corps has also been adding water gradually and isn’t adding as much as was diverted in 1973. Not only is the ground soaking it up, but there are numerous ponding sites in the basin that are also pulling water out of the Spillway.

As the diversion continues the water will get higher, but it doesn’t look like it will be the major flooding that occurred in 1973.

After seeing this great cartoon by Joel Pett of the Lexington Herald-Leader, I decided to see if the Republicans actually had someone to run against Zero. Most of the coverage of “contenders” has been in the Entertainment or Off Beat sections of the news sites.

One of places with the longest list was ABC News [the American “BC”] and its listing of Republican Presidential Contenders for 2012.

What a sorry group of people. Any of them that might actually attract voters in a general election, won’t get by the filter of the primaries. If this is “the cream of the crop”, they should just plow “the crop” under and wait for the next season.

Position: 10.9N 133.9E [ 6PM CST 0000 UTC 9AM JST].
Movement: West-Northwest [290°] near 10 mph [17 kph].
Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph [110 kph].
Wind Gusts: 85 mph [140 kph].
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 105 miles [170 km].

Currently about 230 miles [ 370 km] North of Palau.

This is the first named storm of the Western Pacific season and it looks like it is going to spin into a major typhoon before its over. Current forecasts have it paralleling the Philippines and heading towards Taiwan, and then turning North towards Japan.

The tracking and forecast information is coming primarily from the US Navy center on Hawaii.

The reading will be from the Old Testament, the Book of Deuteronomy, Chapter 18, verses 20-22:

But the prophet, which shall presume to speak a word in my name, which I have not commanded him to speak, or that shall speak in the name of other gods, even that prophet shall die.

And if thou say in thine heart, How shall we know the word which the LORD hath not spoken?

When a prophet speaketh in the name of the LORD, if the thing follow not, nor come to pass, that is the thing which the LORD hath not spoken, but the prophet hath spoken it presumptuously: thou shalt not be afraid of him.

How do “true believers” deal with “false prophets”? Well, there are two main schools of thought – Accuracy and Efficacy.

The supporters of the Accuracy school believe the stones should be smaller, no larger than a hen’s egg, so all might participate and the overall accuracy will be greater, with fewer injuries among the mob.

The Efficacy school believes that the smaller missiles prolong the process, and much larger stones should be cast. Although the casts might not be as accurate, the damage done by those that do strike, will finish the job before the NASCAR race begins.

YMMV.

Note: We are now finding out that a number of people have done very drastic things based on their belief that the Rapture would occur yesterday, so this is more than a radio preacher being exposed as a fraud … again.

Part of humor in the cartoon, The Angry Beavers, is that people can’t imagine one of the somewhat comical looking aquatic mammals being annoyed. Well, the CBC notes that they definitely get angry, and has the video to prove it.

Would you try to pick a fight with a German Shepherd?

CNN has a round-up on the Big Muddy: Mississippi governor urges caution as river crests

Vicksburg, Mississippi (CNN) — Storms were forecast Saturday for areas already suffering from the swollen Mississippi River, as Mississippi’s governor urged caution.

The rain comes as the Mississippi River was cresting in Natchez, Mississippi. The water was cresting at 61.8 feet, or 13.8 feet above flood stage there, according to the National Weather Service.
…

Severe storms are likely Saturday and Sunday in the Mississippi River, Ohio River and Tennessee River valleys.

Up to 3 inches of rain per hour are possible, with heavier storms on Sunday. The rain could lead to secondary crests and higher crests along the Mississippi from Memphis, Tennessee, southward, CNN meteorologist Sean Morris said.
…

A slide was detected on the mainline Mississippi levee at Lake Albemarle, the Corps of Engineers said Thursday. That occurs when the integrity of a levee is undermined because dirt and sand are being eroded, spokeswoman Eileen Williamson said.

Crews are working around the clock to help fill the gaps.

If the levee fails, thousands of homes and more than one million acres would be flooded, according to Peter Nimrod, the Mississippi Levee Board’s chief engineer.

The flooding in the Atchafalaya Basin doesn’t seem to be as bad as predicted. It is possible that the land is soaking up a lot of water after the winter drought. The problems could come later as the ground gets saturated while the high water continues to come in from the Mississippi.

via Elayne, one possible Rapture scenario.

I think the fundie leaders went for a different kind of “rapture”, as Playboy just put all of its issues on-line. They’ll be hitting up their congregations for more money as it’s a subscription service. [They want to read the interviews, that’s all …]

The Miami Herald carries the first results of GOP efforts: In Jacksonville mayoral loss, lessons for Florida GOP

Republican leaders said over and over in recent weeks that a race for mayor of Jacksonville amounted to the first big Florida fight in the 2012 presidential race.

“The liberal organizers who want to keep the American people enslaved by wasteful spending and hideous deficits need to know that they have jumped the gun on 2012 and have awakened a sleeping giant,” Duval County Republican Chairman Lenny Curry declared this month before handing a $50,000 check to Republican mayoral candidate Mike Hogan.

“We’re going to send a message that Florida is red.”

Republicans better hope Curry is wrong about the Jacksonville race being a harbinger, because an black Democrat named Alvin Brown this week was elected mayor of Florida’s largest county, which includes the city of Jacksoville. Across Florida and even the country, stunned Republicans are struggling to understand the narrow upset in conservative northeast Florida.

“Jacksonville has always been a conservative stronghold for Republicans, and we’re going to have to really study what happened in this race,” said Florida Senate president and U.S. Senate candidate Mike Haridopolos, who had expected Hogan to win handily.

Here’s a hint for Mike Haridopolos – people saw what you wanted to do, and they don’t like it. For a Democrat to win in Duval County, Republicans had to vote for him. Duval is as “Red” as the Panhandle, and unless there’s only a 10% turnout, you can’t win with just non-Republican voters.

Here’s another hint – a lot of the people who are registered Republicans in Florida are real conservatives, and they don’t like the radical agenda of the current GOP.

The BBC reports on the latest closure:

The US Coast Guard has closed a five-mile stretch of the swollen Mississippi River after three barges sank.

The barges had been pulled by tug boats when they broke loose near Baton Rouge, Louisiana, officials said. A fourth barge broke loose but was captured.

No injuries or pollution was reported, officials said.

The river has been experiencing record flooding in recent weeks, but officials said they were unsure if that contributed to the accident on Friday.

The high water has made navigating the river, one of America’s most trafficked, hazardous.

The river is filled with debris and the fast-moving current has been complicated by powerful eddies and white caps.

It was reported in other sources that the barges were carrying corn.

If a loose barge slammed into a levee or floodwall and breached it, the situation could get nasty very quickly.

Saturday is Armed Forces Day in the US. I wonder if they misheard someone talking about an F-22 Raptor coming to a local base and thought they said “Rapture”. I’ve made that mistake myself.

It is supposed to happen at 6PM local time on the 21^st, so that would have occurring on the Kamchatka Peninsula at Midnight CDT, followed by New Zealand at 1AM CDT.

Probably because I’m suspicious by nature, it occurs to me that this would be a good time for a lot of fundies to disappear with the church treasury and have the congregation accept that they were “raptured”.

Dr Masters dives into the numbers: Mississippi River flood of 2011 sets all-time flow record, but has crested

The great Mississippi River flood of 2011 crested yesterday and today, and the volume of water being pushed toward the Gulf of Mexico is the largest ever recorded on the Mississippi, said Bob Anderson, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers for the Mississippi Valley Division. “It’s never been this high; it’s never had this much water,” he said. “There’s just a tremendous amount of strain on these levees.” The Mississippi crested yesterday at Vicksburg, Mississippi, reaching 57.06′. This exceeded the previous all-time record of 56.2′, set during the great flood of 1927. The river crested at Natchez, Mississippi early this morning, and is now falling. The flood height at Natchez was also the greatest on record–61.91′, nearly three feet higher than the previous record height of 58′, set in 1937.
…

The flow of the Mississippi River past the Old River Control Structure near Simmesport, Louisiana reached its all-time highest volume on record Thursday, when the flow rate hit 2.3 million cubic feet per second (cfs). The flow of Niagara Falls at normal water levels is 100,000 cfs, so the Mississippi’s flow was 23 times that of Niagara Falls.

Dr Masters noted that South Louisiana has been in drought conditions over this past winter, so the land will be soaking up a lot of the water in the spillways, and the levees are stronger than they were in 1927 when they had been saturated by a wet winter. The current data indicates that opening the Morganza Spillway has lowered the level downstream by 1 to 3 feet.

On the Times-Picayune link they have pictures of sandbagging to protect roads and buildings from back-flow flooding around Morgan City, and the rescue of osprey chicks and eggs in nests that would be flooded.

The flow down the Atchafalaya is making crawfishers happier, as the local water levels, low from the drought, have reduced their harvest, but the shrimpers and crabbers worry that their prey will be flushed out to the Gulf. Along with the wildlife pushed into the Gulf, a lot people hope the flow will help to clean oil that was deposited by the Well from Hell out of the marshes.