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Machiavelli Scores Again

BBC reports that Hezbollah ‘will observe UN truce’. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said, “We will not be an obstacle to any decision taken by the Lebanese government.”

He also said that Hezbollah would continue fighting as long as Israeli soldiers remained in Lebanon and that includes the Shebaa Farms area, which means that he hasn’t actually changed his position. If Israel stops attacking Lebanon, he won’t send rockets into Israel, but he will still attack any Israelis in Lebanon.

Israel is about to change governments and there will be major changes in the IDF as a result of this invasion. Nasrallah has all of the cards, as the Likud and supporters will find out if and when they talk to the military. If they attack again they will probably finally meet the real Hezbollah army, which will come as a nasty shock, followed by finding out how effective the Kornet missile system is against helicopters.

One loss against Hezbollah is bad, but a second loss would be disastrous for the state of Israel. Hezbollah has slowed its rocket attacks to get ready for the attack it knows is coming after the next Israeli election. The Likud and their allies will want to recoup their pride and that will be a fatally stupid move.