Dr. Jeff Masters explains why it was a very bad day in Jamaica, even though the Cat 4 winds stayed off the south coast.

At 10PM CDT the hurricane force winds had ended for Jamaica and Dean was maintaining 145 mph sustained winds with gusts to 180. It is currently moving West [280°] at 19 mph towards the Yucatan but is now projected to strike further south around the Belize-Mexico border / Bahia de Chetumal area, and it is still projected to become a Category 5 hurricane as it passes over the warmer waters of the northwestern Caribbean.

The more southern track increases the distance between the storm and Grand Cayman Island, which may only experience tropical storm force winds.

At 10AM CDT Dean is maintaining 145 mph sustained winds with gust to 180. It is currently moving West [280°] at 18 mph.

The western peninsula of Haiti is still experiencing tropical storm force winds, and so is the eastern half of Jamaica. The storm is on track for the eye to pass just to the South of Jamaica which will bring hurricane force winds to most, if not all, of the island. It will be bad, but not as bad as it could be with a direct hit. Jamaica has shutdown its electrical grid across the island, and is shutting down water system pumps in areas subject to flooding.

Currently the Cayman Islands can expect tropical storm force winds.

Dean has a 7-9-foot surge and is generating large waves that are pounding coastlines. Combined with the intense rain, water and erosion are dangerous components of any storm. Landslides are very possible.

Once passed the islands and in the warmer waters of the northwestern Caribbean, Dean is expect to gain strength and become a Category 5 hurricane before hitting the Yucatan peninsula of Mexican around Bahia de la Ascensión. There are multiple archæological sites and a nature reserve in that area.

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