Posts from — August 2008

It’s amazing how much better the Hedgemony seems to respond during election years than the year after. 😈

I feel bad about not mentioning Invest 97L and Invest 98L that are out in the Atlantic ready to come on “stage”, but two storms at a time is enough.

You know that you are a true hurricane geek when you know what the Fujiwhara effect is. You will see if you get two storms in the Gulf at the same time, and, while intellectually interesting, it is not good for life or property.

How Far Is It is a very useful site if you want to know the distance between any two points on the planet, but I really want to swat that moth or butterfly that flits around. It is the reason that I know that Gustav was 250 miles South-Southwest of me at 7PM.

Oh, well, back to waiting.

Here’s a link to Katrina in the Weather Underground’s archive.

At 1PM CDT on August 28^th Katrina was at 26.5 North 88.6 West with sustained winds of 175 mph and a central pressure of 902 mb, an all out Category 5 Hauptsturmfury with a 250 mile tropical storm wind radius and a 150 mile hurricane wind radius. It came ashore near the Pearl River affecting the Gulf Coast from Panama City, Florida to South of Lake Charles, Louisiana.

I’ve been getting a lot of Google searches for this.

Updated: I located the links to the National Hurricane Center advisories. They are in caps because they started out on the Teletype 33 terminals which only had capital letters.

I forgot to mention that two-thirds of the windfield is on the East side of the storm and the Northeast quadrant is where the strongest winds from the East, Southeast, and South are located.

Position: 27.8 N 88.8 W. [1 AM CDT]
Movement: Northwest [315°] near 16 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 115 mph.
Wind Gusts: 140 mph.
Hurricane Wind Radius: 70 miles.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 220 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 955 mb.

It is about 125 miles Southeast of Port Fourchon, Louisiana and the pressure is up a little.

The passage over Cuba affected it more than anticipated, but it is back over very warm water and is broadening. For comparison: Katrina’s hurricane radius was 150 miles and tropical storm winds went out to 250 miles.

Position: 23.7 N 72.2 W. [1 AM CDT]
Movement: West [280°] near 2 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph.
Wind Gusts: 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 105 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 997 mb.

It is about 100 miles North-Northwest of the Bahamas.

This is a very large system in a very uncertain steering environment.

Position: 22.9 N 67.8 W. [10 PM CDT]
Movement: North-Northwest [300°] near 8 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph.
Wind Gusts: 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 145 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 1000 mb.

It is about 230 miles East-Southeast of Grand Turk island.

About half of the models have Hanna doing pirouettes in a couple of days. It is wobbling from a lack of a consistent steering mechanism,

Position: 23.1 N 83.8 W. [10 PM CDT]
Movement: Northwest [320°] near 15 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph.
Wind Gusts: 170 mph.
Hurricane Wind Radius: 70 miles.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 175 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 948 mb.

It is over the Gulf about 530 miles Southeast of the Gulf Coast.

Gustav is Category 4, and isn’t apt to lose it’s major status until after landfall in the US.

at 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…a Hurricane Watch is issued for the
northern Gulf Coast from east of High Island Texas eastward to the
Alabama-Florida border…including the city of New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area…generally within 36 hours.

At 500 PM EDT…a tropical storm watch is issued along the Panhandle
coast of Florida from east of the Alabama-Florida border eastward
to the Ochlockonee River. A tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area…generally within 36 hours.

I probably won’t be doing much more than hurricanes here for awhile, as I finally got the clarification I needed on a project and am trying to get it done.

I don’t owe the Democratic Party anything, and I’m particularly unhappy with the Obama people for disinfranchising me, but I will do them a favor: don’t underestimate Sarah Palin or your head will get mounted like the moose she hunts.

The misogyny of Obama supporters angered a lot of people during the primary, but this is a general and Sarah Palin has no need to be as forgiving as Hillary Clinton.

I noticed that a number of people have picked up the “troopergate” theme promoted by the corruption wing of the Alaskan Republican Party.  Nothing like repeating Rovian-style talking points.  Maybe you should learn something about the controversy before you talk about it.

As for experience, her experience as a mayor and governor is executive experience, something none of the Senators have.  She is the commander in chief of the Alaska National Guard.

[Read more →]

It wasn’t the storm, it was the levees.

It wasn’t Nature, it was man.

Position: 22.1 N 65.3 W. [10 PM CDT]
Movement: West-Northwest [295°] near 14 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph.
Wind Gusts: 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 115 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 1002 mb.

It is about 375 miles East of Grand Turk island.

Reports on Hanna only come out every 6 hours because it isn’t near land. The steering currents are a mess, making the models a mess, making the movement forecast a guess. The storm will hang together, unfortunately, but it is currently [in many senses of the word] a loose cannon. It’s almost as if the tropical storm tracks were being planned by the Hedgemony this year.

Position: 19.7 N 80.7 W. [1 AM CDT]
Movement: Northwest [305°] near 12 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 85 mph.
Wind Gusts: 95 mph.
Hurricane Wind Radius: 60 miles.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 160 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 971 mb.

It is 50 miles Northeast of Grand Cayman.

[10 PM] I don’t like it when the tracking maps start using shades of pink, as in Categories 4 and 5.

Blue-eyed Boy

What is that bright light?

[Editor: Excise absorbing some sunshine after our extended period of rain and overcast skies.]

Friday Ark

In Jeff Masters’s current post he discusses Gustav’s potential impact on the oil and gas industry.

His map makes it obvious why, when a storm heads in anywhere West of Florida on the Gulf, the price of oil goes up. The companies shut down the platforms and bring the crews back to shore until the storm passes.

There are also a large number of the US refineries in this area and they have to be secured until the storm passes and power is restored.

Position: 21.1 N 60.6 W. [10 PM CDT]
Movement: West-Northwest [290°] near 7 mph.
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph.
Wind Gusts: 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Wind Radius: 50 miles.
Minimum central pressure: 1000 mb.

It is about 260 miles Northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.